Posted on Jun 14, 2022
The Army Risks Reasoning Backwards in Analyzing Ukraine - War on the Rocks
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Great article about how we’re analyzing Russia’s success in Ukraine. It’s like we’re setting up the wargame, not to determine our weaknesses or gaps and fixing them, but to ensure the Red Team loses. And when the Red Team inevitably loses, because we’ve purposely made it to where they can’t win, we’ll attribute the victory to whatever new strategy we’ve preconceived. Not because we identified gaps in our strategy and closed them.
The Army Risks Reasoning Backwards in Analyzing Ukraine - War on the Rocks
Posted from warontherocks.com
Russia
Ukraine
Strategy
Posted >1 y ago
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I scanned the article. No mention of Israel winning two wars and one in 6 days. Dumb artillery? What about Javelins, Stingers, Drones with their precision? Let’s see how the war unfolds before we start accusing us of creating doctrine on based on partial data.
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MAJ (Join to see)
That’s not at all what I’m doing. Just merely pointing out that the author makes a great point, and hopefully we’re really not doing this…
“I believe that the Ukraine war offers the same opportunity for introspection about our Army as did the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Sending an assessment team to Europe is a sound decision if its orders are to critically assess the war and seek out flaws in the Army’s vision of multi-domain operations. It will be less useful if the approach taken is to attempt to simply validate the concepts the Army has preferred over the past several years. There are, however, early indications that self-validation is already creeping in, as reported by a recent article in Breaking Defense: “Army leaders have said that its massive modernization effort, which predated the Russian invasion and ranges from helicopters to secure communications, has been validated by the conflict.””
“I believe that the Ukraine war offers the same opportunity for introspection about our Army as did the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Sending an assessment team to Europe is a sound decision if its orders are to critically assess the war and seek out flaws in the Army’s vision of multi-domain operations. It will be less useful if the approach taken is to attempt to simply validate the concepts the Army has preferred over the past several years. There are, however, early indications that self-validation is already creeping in, as reported by a recent article in Breaking Defense: “Army leaders have said that its massive modernization effort, which predated the Russian invasion and ranges from helicopters to secure communications, has been validated by the conflict.””
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MAJ Ken Landgren
It's not on you. He does not mention that the RMA is the sheer volume of the use of many precision weapons like the Javelin, Stinger, and Drones to defeat 3 Russian avenues of approach early in the war. There was little Artillery being used at the time. I don't agree with some of his thinking processes. But thanks for sharing.
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