Why Trump’s Space Force May Have Trouble Getting Off the Ground

Ken Kraetzer Big trouble getting off the ground.....yes. You would need legislation akin to Goldwater Nichols (that forced joint operations and the creation of SOCOM as a COCOM) or the National Security Act of 1947 (which created the Air Force, DoD, and the CIA) to get it authorized legally and financed. Congress would have to agree on something. It can't come at the expense of the other services which is part of the interservice fight that plagues DoD.

Despite what contemporary memes would allege, this Space Force would likely begin life as a boring consolidation point for all the services Space personnel, like satellite flyers and Army Space Operations Functional Area officers. Don't think there will Be Armored space shuttles full of Space Marines or Mobile Infantry aboard the Corvette Roger Young doing vertical envelopment of the moon, at least not right away.

I think this concept would be much better served as a functional COCOM like Cyber, SOCOM, and USTRANSCOM. I am concerned the formation of this service will facilitate two services squabbling over the the aerospace domain whilst ignoring the terrestrial forces requiring their support. I can see the need to plan for the defense and control of the global commons to assure freedom of action. Not sure how this will play out. Really interested to see if they change Title 10, 32, or 14 to facilitate this.

My perspective is shaped by 4 years in NRO and 4 in Air Force Space Command (AFSPC). My personal opinion (also based on joint doctrine) is that a space force does not have enough forces to assign, allocate, and apportion for combat or combat support to warrant being its own branch. Right now the Joint Forces Space Component Command (JFSCC) has the following combat units: a battalion or two from 1st Space Brigade (Army), a couple squadrons from 14th Air Force, and portions of Navy Network Warfare Command. The remainder of the "space force" are support units from those units listed above. The Air Force does organize, train, and equip 98% of the joint space force with a budget of about $10B a year (unclassified). The NRO has about $50B that is not counted as part of the space force, but the Air Force does comprise about 50% of their military billets. There are 20,000 active duty billets in AFSPC, plus 1,500 on loan to NRO and other joint agencies. The Army has under 1,000 active duty in its space cadre and the Navy has about 500. Those statistics certainly build a case for letting the Air Force manage a joint space force, or for carving up the total space cadre into an independent branch of just over 30,000.

The President will need Congress to create legislation for this space force. I am not convinced that a separate space force is needed, but I do like that the threat of an independent space force is forcing a lot of good changes within AFSPC. In the end I do not see Congress authorizing a space force, since it would not solve any problems or provide unique benefits. I do see Congress putting the Air Force on notice to manage its space forces better over the next few years.