Posted on Sep 12, 2020
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the
central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is also
issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen, located near
southern Florida.

1. A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible while it moves westward and
then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system
is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward
at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Another area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave,
is located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
support some development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early
next week while the system moves slowly westward. By mid-week,
upper-level winds could become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

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Current conditions at
Fort Myers, Page Field (KFMY)
Lat: 26.58°NLon: 81.86°WElev: 16ft.
Mostly Cloudy 84°F (29°C)
Humidity 74%
Wind Speed E 20 G 24 mph
Barometer 29.78 in (1008.6 mb)
Dewpoint 75°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 92°F (33°C)
Last update 12 Sep 10:53 am ED

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Today
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms
could produce heavy rain. High near 85. Breezy,
with an east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as
high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

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Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2am,
then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2am.
Some of the storms could produce heavy rain.
Low around 75. Breezy, with an east southeast wind
13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 80%.
New rainfall amounts between a half and three
quarters of an inch possible.

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Sunday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms
could produce heavy rain. High near 88. Heat index values
as high as 100. South southeast wind 9 to 11 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 80%.
New rainfall amounts between three quarters and
one inch possible.

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Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm,
then scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly between 8pm and 2am. Some of the storms
could produce heavy rain. Low around 76.
East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

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Monday
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm.
High near 90. East southeast wind 5 to 7 mph
becoming south in the afternoon.
Chance of precipitation is 90%.

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Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm.
Low around 75. Light and variable wind.
Chance of precipitation is 80%.

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Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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Tuesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around
5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm.
Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming
east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a
high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%

________________________________________________________________

Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny,
with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
423 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260 [login to see] 00-
/O.CON.KTBW.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200914T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-
Including the cities of Wildwood, Lake Panasoffkee, Bushnell,
The Villages, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Lakeland,
Winter Haven, Wauchula, Bowling Green, Zolfo Springs, Sebring,
Avon Park, Placid Lakes, Arcadia, Cedar Key, Yankeetown,
Crystal River, Homosassa, Hernando Beach, Bayport, Port Richey,
Hudson, Tampa, Apollo Beach, Westchase, Bradenton,
Anna Maria Island, Venice, Sarasota, Englewood, Port Charlotte,
Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, Captiva, Sanibel, Chiefland, Bronson,
Williston, Inverness, Brooksville, Spring Hill, Dade City,
Zephyrhills, Brandon, Plant City, Sun City Center, Parrish,
Lakewood Ranch, Myakka City, North Port, Babcock Ranch,
Fort Myers, and Lehigh Acres
423 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Florida and west central Florida,
including the following areas, in southwest Florida, Coastal
Charlotte, Coastal Lee, Inland Charlotte, and Inland Lee. In
west central Florida, Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando,
Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Levy, Coastal Manatee, Coastal
Pasco, Coastal Sarasota, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Inland
Citrus, Inland Hernando, Inland Hillsborough, Inland Levy,
Inland Manatee, Inland Pasco, Inland Sarasota, Pinellas, Polk,
and Sumter.

* Through Sunday evening

* Tropical Depression 19 is moving west-northwest across southern
Florida today and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with deep
tropical moisture fueling numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend. These rains may
lead to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870- [login to see] 00-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected, with a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms over southwest Florida. Thunderstorms that develop
will be capable of producing damaging winds...locally heavy
rains... and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Widespread thunderstorms will be possible today as Tropical
Depression Nineteen moves across southern Florida, producing
locally heavy rainfall. The heavy rain will cause flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas as well as the ponding of water on
roadways, especially in areas that have already seen significant
rainfall this week. Motorists should exercise caution.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Tropical Storm force winds in the eastern gulf waters will create
hazardous boating conditions for small craft operators.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
As Tropical Depression Nineteen moves across southern Florida,
atmospheric conditions will be favorable for waterspout
development. Mariners should be on the lookout for waterspouts.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
River flooding is expected along some of the local area rivers.
Residents living along rivers or faster flowing streams should
remain aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground
should flooding be observed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
On Sunday, thunderstorms are expected. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...
and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
On Sunday, widespread thunderstorms will be possible as Tropical
Depression Nineteen moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
producing locally heavy rainfall. The heavy rain will cause
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as well as the
ponding of water on roadways, especially in areas that have
already seen significant rainfall this week. Motorists should
exercise caution.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
On Sunday, high surf created from Tropical Depression Nineteen
may produce dangerous rip currents along area beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Tropical Storm force winds in the eastern gulf waters will create
hazardous boating conditions for small craft operators.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
As Tropical Depression Nineteen moves through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, atmospheric conditions will be favorable for waterspout
development. Mariners should be on the lookout for waterspouts.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
River flooding is expected along some of the local area rivers.
Residents living along rivers or faster flowing streams should
remain aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground
should flooding be observed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

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Sebring Regional Airport, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 85/75 88/74 88/75
83 74 75% WINDS EASTERLY 16MPH GUSTING 23MPH 29.85
XXXXX/

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Winter Haven/Gilbert Field A,FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
RAIN BEGAN 1316Z/ ENDED 1353/
RAIN 0.10 NCHES/
CLIMO 09-11 90/78 92/76 91/77
89 76 90%
WINDS EASTERLY 10MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.88 XXXXX/

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Gainesville Regional Airport, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 88/73 91/73 89/75
83 77 82% WINDS EASTERLY 13MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.95 XXXXX/

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Ft. Walton Bch, Hurlburt Air, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 94/72 92/73 92/73
80 76 88% WINDS EASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.91 XXXXX/

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Jacksonville Internationa Air, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 87/74 89/75 89/76 86 77 75%
WINDS EASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.95 XXXXX/

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Tyndall AirForce Base, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 94/75 89/75 89/75
83 76 78%
WINDS EASTERLY 13MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.90 XXXXX/

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Pensacola International Air, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 93/76 93/75 88/75
89 76 90% WINDS EASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.92 XXXXX/

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Tallahassee International Air, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
KTLH CLIMO 09-11 90/75 92/76 89/77
82 75 79% WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
13MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.93 XXXXX/

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Valparaiso/Eglin AFB, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 94/72 92/73 92/73
81 73 79%
WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 89MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.93 XXXXX/

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Cocoa Beach/Patrick AFB, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 88/77 89/77 89/80
87 73 65%
WINDS EASTERLY 22MPH GUSTING 25MPH
29.87 XXXXX/

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Cross City Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/

CLIMO 09-11 91/74 93/75 91/76
86 77 75%
WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 9MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.92 XXXXX/

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Homestead Air Force Base, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT RAIN/FOG/
CLIMO 09-11 88/76 89/75 89/77
77 77 100%
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 28MPH
29.77 XXXXX/

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Lakeland Regional Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT RAIN/FOG/
CLIMO 09-11 90/75 91/75 90/75
82 73 74%
WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 14MPH GUSTING 21MPH
29.87 XXXXX/

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Tampa/MacDill Air Force BaseFL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
RAIN BEGAN 1425Z / ENDED 1426Z/ DRIZZLE BEGAN 1426/ ENDED 1434Z/
RAIN BEGAN 1434/ ENDED 1435Z/
CLIMO 09-11 89/76 90/75 91/76
84 75 74%
WINDS EASTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 23MPH
29.85

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Marathon Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 1/2 MILES/ HEAVY RAIN/FOG/ RAIN 0.29 INCHES/
CLIMO 09-11 90/76 90/78 89/81
86 76 100%
WINDS WESTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 24MPH
29.74 XXXXX/

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Keywest Naval Air Stn Airport,FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY
1 1/2 HEAVY RAIN/FOG/
PEAK WIND WEST 26MPH/ WIND SHIFT 1434/
RAIIN ENDED 1432/ BEGAN 1444/
THUNDERSTORM OVERHEAD MOVING SOUTHEAST
RAIN 0.37 INCHES/
CLIMO 09-11 93/76 86/76 92/83
82 78 88%
WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 22MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.76 XXXXX/

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St. Petersburg Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/ RAIN BEGAN 1441/ RAINFALL
0.00 INCHES/
CLIMO 09-11 91/76 93/78 90/78
84 79 85% WINDS EASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.85 XXXXX/

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Tampa International Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/ RAIN BEGAN 1546/ RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 09-11 91/78 91/77 92/83
84 72 67%
WINDS EASTERLY 10MPH GUSTING 20MPH
29.86 XXXXX/

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Keywest International Airport FL
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 6 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/ RAIN BEGAN 1430/ RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 09-11 90/76 89/75 93/83
84 77 80%
WINDS WESTERLY 9MPH GUSTING 20MPH
29.76 XXXXX/

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KVRB Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 09-11 88/75 90/75 89/78
86 74 67% WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 17MPH GUSTING 33MPH 29.87 XXXXX/

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KMIA Miami International Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
RAIN ENDED 1411/ RAIN BEGAN 1439/
RAINFALL 0.04 INCHES/
CLIMO 09-11 89/76 88/76 91/79
79 76 90%
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 25MPH GUSTING 37MPH
29.80 XXXXX/

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Brooksville/Hernando Airport, FL
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT EAST/
CLIMO 09-11 92/76 91/74 91/75
86 76 72%
WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 13MPH GUSTING 21MPH
29.88 XXXXX/

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Okeechobee County Airport. FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST/

CLIMO 09-11 89/72 81/73 90/73
81 75 84%
WINDS EASTERLY 3MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/

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METEOROLOGIST LARRY OLSON/

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Responses: 4
PO2 Builder
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Good Job Larry.
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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Thanks Larry.
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Col Carl Whicker
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Thanks, Larry.
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