6
6
0
________________________________________________________
Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion
Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
The overall structure of Sally has not changed much since this
morning, but there has been a recent increase in convection near
and to the east of the center this afternoon. It appears that
the northwesterly shear is beginning to relax, and the increase in
convection near the center may be a harbinger of the expected
strengthening phase. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
that have been in the storm since the previous advisory have
reported a fairly stable central pressure of 996-998 mb, and recent
data from the NOAA aircraft still supports an initial intensity of
50 kt. Earlier ASCAT data have been helpful in analyzing the radius
of 34-kt winds, which has expand over the eastern semicircle.
Sally is forecast to move beneath a narrow upper-level ridge axis
through Monday and the expected decrease in shear should allow the
storm to strengthen. Since Sally is forecast to decelerate on its
approach to the northern Gulf coast, the system still has at least
another 36 h to take advantage of the expected conducive
environmental conditions. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to call for Sally to become a hurricane on Monday, with
additional strengthening likely until landfall. The intensity
guidance has trended slightly lower this cycle, with the HMON model
now at the upper end of the guidance envelope. The reduction in the
statistical guidance is likely due to the fact that Sally has not
strengthened today and there is a persistence component to the
forecast from those models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies a little above the latest
HFIP corrected consensus aid.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Sally continues to
move west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The tropical storm is
currently being steered around the southern portion of a mid-level
ridge to its northeast. Sally is forecast to reach the western
extent of the ridge on Monday, and a slower northwestward motion is
expected when the storm is near the north-central Gulf coast. The
steering currents are forecast to weaken further in a couple of days
as Sally rounds the western extent of the ridge and a slow northward
motion is expected during that time. By 72 hours, the cyclone
should begin to move somewhat faster toward the northeast as a
trough deepens to its west. As often occurs, there has been some
run-to-run variability among the various track models, and the
latest iterations of them have shifted eastward with a slower
forward speed. Despite the shifts of the individual models, the
latest consensus aids are only slightly north and east of the
previous NHC track through 60 hours, so only a small adjustment has
been made to the earlier official forecast through that time. It is
important not to focus too much on these small track changes and
to the exact forecast track itself, as impacts are expected to
extend far from the center. Also, since there is still quite a
bit of model spread in both the location and timing of when the
center of Sally reaches the northern Gulf Coast, additional
adjustments to the track forecast are possible.
Regardless of Sally's exact landfall location and intensity, the
cyclone is expected to bring wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards
to a large part of the north-central Gulf Coast. In particular,
Sally's slow forward speed near the coast will exacerbate the storm
surge and heavy rainfall threats.
____________________________________________________________
EY MESSAGES:
1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Mississippi/Alabama border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with
tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion in those areas.
3. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and
northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle
of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across
the Southeast U.S. through the week.
_______________________________________________________
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 27.8N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 29.8N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0600Z 30.7N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 31.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 34.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
________________________________________________________
Current conditions at
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport (KBFM)
Lat: 30.61°NLon: 88.06°WElev: 23ft.
Partly Cloudy 93°F (34)
Humidity 56%
Wind Speed N 12 mph
Barometer 29.84 in (1010.4 mb)
Dewpoint 75°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 105°F (41°C)
Last update 13 Sep 3:53 pm CDT
____________________________________________________
____________________________________________________
Detailed Forecast
This Afternoon
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly sunny, with a high near 92.
East wind around 10 mph.
___________________________________________________
Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind
10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch,
except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
_______________________________________________
Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 84.
Chance of precipitation is 90%.
New rainfall amounts between a tenth and
quarter of an inch, except higher amounts
possible in thunderstorms.
________________________________________________
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms. Low around 74.
Chance of precipitation is 90%
________________________________________________
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms. High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
_________________________________________________________
uesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation
is 90%.
_________________________________________________________
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms. High near 83.
Windy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph, with
gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
_____________________________________________________________
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am.
Low around 73. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph,
with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%
_______________________________________________________
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Southwest wind
10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 70%.
__________________________________________________________
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before
8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Chance of precipitation is 70%.
_____________________________________________________
Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny,
with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
________________________________________________________
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
__________________________________________________
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
__________________________________________________________
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
____________________________________________
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
________________________________________________________
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
_________________________________________________________
***********************************************
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Escambia-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa
Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-
George-
Including the cities of Chatom, Wiggins, Beaumont, Jackson,
Seminole, Fort Morgan, Jay, Pensacola Beach, Eglin AFB, Orange
Beach, Perdido Bay, Crestview, Fairhope, Wright, Flomaton, Grand
Bay, Fort Walton Beach, Lucedale, Butler, Walnut Hill, Thomasville,
Lisman, Foley, Grove Hill, Spanish Fort, Theodore, Silas, Fort
Pickens, Citronelle, Niceville, Leakesville, Beulah, Waynesboro,
Daphne, Gulf Shores, Bagdad, Pensacola, Brewton, Valparaiso, Mobile,
Dauphin Island, Bay Minette, Richton, Gulf Breeze, Prichard,
Navarre, New Augusta, Stockton, Atmore, Millry, Century, Ensley,
Destin, Saraland, McLain, Bayou La Batre, Molino, and Milton
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi,
including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central,
Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Choctaw, Clarke, Escambia, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland and Washington. In
northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa
Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal and Santa Rosa
Inland. In southeast Mississippi, George, Greene, Perry, Stone and
Wayne.
* From Monday morning through Thursday morning
* Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Sally are expected to
spread into the area beginning early Monday morning and will
continue over the watch area through at least early Thursday
morning. Total rainfall amounts in the watch area will be 6 to 12
inches with locally higher amounts near 20 inches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
_______________________________________________________________
*************************************************
Tropical Storm Warning
Sally Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL192020
354 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Mobile
- Prichard
- Theodore
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
___________________________________________________________
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Monday afternoon until early Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation affecting locations such as from the
Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries,
including downtown Mobile. Damage to several buildings.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots. The US 90 Causeway will experience
significant flooding.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
_____________________________________________________
FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
____________________________________________________________
TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Mobile County EMA: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: http://www.weather.gov/mob
____________________________________________________________
***********************************************
Hurricane Watch
354 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Mobile
- Prichard
- Theodore
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Monday afternoon until early Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation affecting locations such as from the
Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries,
including downtown Mobile. Damage to several buildings.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots. The US 90 Causeway will experience
significant flooding.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Mobile County EMA: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: http://www.weather.gov/mob
____________________________________________________________
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Storm Surge Watch
STORM SURGE WATCH
NWS MOBILE AL
354 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2020
ALZ263-140500-
/O.CON.KMOB.SS.A.1019.000000T0000Z-
000000T0000Z/
354 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2020
Mobile Central-
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Mobile
- Prichard
- Theodore
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
______________________________________________________________
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Monday afternoon until early Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
____________________________________________________________
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation affecting locations such as from the
Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries,
including downtown Mobile. Damage to several buildings.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots. The US 90 Causeway will experience
significant flooding.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
___________________________________________________
__________________________________________________
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
_________________________________________________
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Mobile County EMA: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: http://www.weather.gov/mob
===========================================
Hurricane Local Statement
Tropical Storm Sally Local Statement Advisory Number 8
ALZ263>266-FLZ202 [login to see] 45-
Tropical Storm Sally Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL [login to see] AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
**TROPICAL STORM SALLY IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO**
NEW INFORMATION
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Baldwin Inland
- A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal,
Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia Coastal,
Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 290 miles southeast of Mobile AL or about 250 miles
southeast of Pensacola FL
- 27.5N 84.9W
- Storm Intensity 60 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 mph
___________________________________________________________
------------------
At 10:00 AM CDT, Tropical Storm Sally will move west-northwest to
northwest into the north central Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then
begin to slow its forward speed. The cyclone should turn north at a
slow rate of speed and approach the north central Gulf coast by Tuesday
evening.
This system will bring an extended period of heavy rains with amounts
of 6 to 12 inches expected, with locally higher amounts up to 20 inches
across the western Florida panhandle, coastal southwest Alabama and
southeast Mississippi. Tropical Storm Force winds are likely along the
immediate coastlines of Alabama and much of the western Florida
Panhandle. If the storm were to take a more eastward track then
currently forecast, then hurricane force winds would be possible. A
Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for coastal Alabama where water
levels of 2 to 4 feet above dry ground are possible. Further to the
east, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect with water levels of 1 to 3
feet above dry ground expected along the western Florida panhandle. A
few tornadoes are also possible mainly across the western Florida
panhandle, extreme southwestern Alabama and extreme southeast
Mississippi. In addition, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are
expected along the beaches with dangerous wave run up likely.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeast Mississippi, extreme southwestern
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff
may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers
may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
______________________________________________________________
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across interior southwest Alabama and portions of
south central Alabama.
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal Alabama. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
southeast Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, the western Florida
panhandle and extreme south central Alabama. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.
======================================================
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of extreme southeast Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and
coastal sections of the western Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across interior southeast Mississippi, interior southwest Alabama,
interior sections of the western Florida panhandle, and portions of
south central Alabama.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to
get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead
of time.
Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!
There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: [login to see] or
http://www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: [login to see] or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: [login to see] http://www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: [login to see] or http://www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service
in Mobile AL around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
_______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
FLORIDA
Sebring Regional Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTHWEST/
CLIMO 10-12 88/74 88/75 88/75
*79 73 81%*
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.90 XXXXX/
_____________________________________________________________
Winter Haven/Gilbert Field A,FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 4 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/ RAIN BEGAN 1924Z/ RAINFALL 0.05 INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 92/76 91/77 89/77 *78 74 87%*
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.91 XXXXX/
___________________________________________________________
Gainesville Regional Airport, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST/
RAIN BEGAN 1859/ ENDED 1925Z/ RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/73 89/75 88/74
/81 75 82%/
WINDS EASTERLY 10MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.92 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________________
Ft. Walton Bch, Hurlburt Air, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY MILES 2 3/4 HEAVY
RAIN/FOG/ RAIN BEGAN 1924Z/ ENDED 1931/
CLIMO 10-12 92/73 92/73 90/75
/81 73 79%/
WINDS EASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING 21MPH
29.84 XXXXX/
_________________________________________________
Jacksonville Internationa Air, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTH/
TCU (TOWERING CUMULUS- RAIN SHOWER) SOUTHWEST/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 89/76 86/75
/81 77 88%/
WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 6MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.92 XXXXX/
_____________________________________________________________
Tyndall AirForce Base, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/
PEAK WIND SOUTHEAST 33MPH/ 1923/
RAIN BEGAN 1924/ RAINFALL 0.36
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 89/75 93/74
/78 75 89%/
WINDS EASTERLY 15MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.82 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________
Pensacola International Air, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/
PEAK WIND EAST-SOUTHEAST 26MPH/1957
LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST/
RAIN BEGAN 2013/ RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 93/75 88/75 91/75
/82 76 82%/
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 17MPH GUSTING 24MPH
29.85 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________
Tallahassee International Air, FL. \
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 3 MILES/ THUNDERSTORMS/MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS/FOG/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST/
RAIN BEGAN 1957/
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING/ IN CLOUD/ CLOUD TO GROUND
OVERHEAD/ RAINFALL 0.01IN/
CLIMO 10-12 92/76 89/77 93/76 /78 74 87%/
WINDS SOUTHERLY 14MPH GUSTING 30MPH
29.86 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________
Valparaiso/Eglin AFB, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ RAINFALL 0.24
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 92/73 92/73 91/75 /81 75 84%/
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.86 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________________
Cocoa Beach/Patrick AFB, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT WEST/
CLIMO 10-12 89/77 89/80 88/78
/84 72 68%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 16MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.89 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________
Cross City Airport, FL.
FAIR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTHEAST/
CLIMO 10-12 93/75 91/76 93/75 /78 77 94%/
WINDS SOUTHERLY 6MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.86 XXXXX/
_________________________________________________________
Homestead Air Force Base, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 89/77 79/76
/84 79 84%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.86 XXXXX/
_______________________________________________________
Lakeland Regional Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/75 90/75 84/75
/79 73 84%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.90 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________
Tampa/MacDill Air Force BaseFL.
FAIR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
RAIN ENDED
CLIMO 10-12 90/75 91/76 88/76
/77 73 89%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 16MPH GUSTING 23MPH
29.85 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________________
Marathon Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 90/78 89/81 79/74 /85 79 82%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/
___________________________________________________________
Keywest Naval Air Stn Airport,FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 86/76 92/83 86/78 /87 78 75%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________
St. Petersburg Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT RAIN/FOG/ RAINFALL 0.01 INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 93/78 90/78 87/76
/78 76 93%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING 20MPH
29.85 XXXXX/
________________________________________________________
Tampa International Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/77 92/83 84/77
/79 71 77%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING 21MPH
29.86 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________
Keywest International Airport FL
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 93/83 85/77
/87 76 70%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 13MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/
______________________________________________________
Keywest International Airport FL
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 88/80 93/83 87/82
/84 76 77%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.89 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________
Miami International Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/ RAINBEGAN 1956/ RAINFALL 0.04/
CLIMO 10-12 88/76 91/79 84/76
/83 77 82%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.87 XXXXX/
_______________________________________________________________
Brooksville/Hernando Airport, FL
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/74 91/75 88/76
/79 75 88%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 9MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.88 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________
Okeechobee County Airport. FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY/ LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST/ KOBE CLIMO 10-12 81/73 90/73 81/72
/81 72 74%/
WINDS CALM GUSTING XXXXX
29.88 XXXXX/
______________________________________________________________
Apalachicola Muni Airport, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 87/76 91/75 92/76
/84 75 74%/
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 14MPH GUSTING 29MPH
29.79 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________________
Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion
Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
The overall structure of Sally has not changed much since this
morning, but there has been a recent increase in convection near
and to the east of the center this afternoon. It appears that
the northwesterly shear is beginning to relax, and the increase in
convection near the center may be a harbinger of the expected
strengthening phase. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
that have been in the storm since the previous advisory have
reported a fairly stable central pressure of 996-998 mb, and recent
data from the NOAA aircraft still supports an initial intensity of
50 kt. Earlier ASCAT data have been helpful in analyzing the radius
of 34-kt winds, which has expand over the eastern semicircle.
Sally is forecast to move beneath a narrow upper-level ridge axis
through Monday and the expected decrease in shear should allow the
storm to strengthen. Since Sally is forecast to decelerate on its
approach to the northern Gulf coast, the system still has at least
another 36 h to take advantage of the expected conducive
environmental conditions. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to call for Sally to become a hurricane on Monday, with
additional strengthening likely until landfall. The intensity
guidance has trended slightly lower this cycle, with the HMON model
now at the upper end of the guidance envelope. The reduction in the
statistical guidance is likely due to the fact that Sally has not
strengthened today and there is a persistence component to the
forecast from those models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies a little above the latest
HFIP corrected consensus aid.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Sally continues to
move west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The tropical storm is
currently being steered around the southern portion of a mid-level
ridge to its northeast. Sally is forecast to reach the western
extent of the ridge on Monday, and a slower northwestward motion is
expected when the storm is near the north-central Gulf coast. The
steering currents are forecast to weaken further in a couple of days
as Sally rounds the western extent of the ridge and a slow northward
motion is expected during that time. By 72 hours, the cyclone
should begin to move somewhat faster toward the northeast as a
trough deepens to its west. As often occurs, there has been some
run-to-run variability among the various track models, and the
latest iterations of them have shifted eastward with a slower
forward speed. Despite the shifts of the individual models, the
latest consensus aids are only slightly north and east of the
previous NHC track through 60 hours, so only a small adjustment has
been made to the earlier official forecast through that time. It is
important not to focus too much on these small track changes and
to the exact forecast track itself, as impacts are expected to
extend far from the center. Also, since there is still quite a
bit of model spread in both the location and timing of when the
center of Sally reaches the northern Gulf Coast, additional
adjustments to the track forecast are possible.
Regardless of Sally's exact landfall location and intensity, the
cyclone is expected to bring wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards
to a large part of the north-central Gulf Coast. In particular,
Sally's slow forward speed near the coast will exacerbate the storm
surge and heavy rainfall threats.
____________________________________________________________
EY MESSAGES:
1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Mississippi/Alabama border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with
tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion in those areas.
3. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and
northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle
of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across
the Southeast U.S. through the week.
_______________________________________________________
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 27.8N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 29.8N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0600Z 30.7N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 31.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 34.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
________________________________________________________
Current conditions at
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport (KBFM)
Lat: 30.61°NLon: 88.06°WElev: 23ft.
Partly Cloudy 93°F (34)
Humidity 56%
Wind Speed N 12 mph
Barometer 29.84 in (1010.4 mb)
Dewpoint 75°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 105°F (41°C)
Last update 13 Sep 3:53 pm CDT
____________________________________________________
____________________________________________________
Detailed Forecast
This Afternoon
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly sunny, with a high near 92.
East wind around 10 mph.
___________________________________________________
Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind
10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch,
except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
_______________________________________________
Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 84.
Chance of precipitation is 90%.
New rainfall amounts between a tenth and
quarter of an inch, except higher amounts
possible in thunderstorms.
________________________________________________
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms. Low around 74.
Chance of precipitation is 90%
________________________________________________
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms. High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
_________________________________________________________
uesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and
thunderstorms. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation
is 90%.
_________________________________________________________
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms. High near 83.
Windy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph, with
gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
_____________________________________________________________
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am.
Low around 73. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph,
with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%
_______________________________________________________
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Southwest wind
10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 70%.
__________________________________________________________
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before
8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Chance of precipitation is 70%.
_____________________________________________________
Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny,
with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
________________________________________________________
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
__________________________________________________
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
__________________________________________________________
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
____________________________________________
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
________________________________________________________
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
_________________________________________________________
***********************************************
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Escambia-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa
Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-
George-
Including the cities of Chatom, Wiggins, Beaumont, Jackson,
Seminole, Fort Morgan, Jay, Pensacola Beach, Eglin AFB, Orange
Beach, Perdido Bay, Crestview, Fairhope, Wright, Flomaton, Grand
Bay, Fort Walton Beach, Lucedale, Butler, Walnut Hill, Thomasville,
Lisman, Foley, Grove Hill, Spanish Fort, Theodore, Silas, Fort
Pickens, Citronelle, Niceville, Leakesville, Beulah, Waynesboro,
Daphne, Gulf Shores, Bagdad, Pensacola, Brewton, Valparaiso, Mobile,
Dauphin Island, Bay Minette, Richton, Gulf Breeze, Prichard,
Navarre, New Augusta, Stockton, Atmore, Millry, Century, Ensley,
Destin, Saraland, McLain, Bayou La Batre, Molino, and Milton
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi,
including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central,
Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Choctaw, Clarke, Escambia, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland and Washington. In
northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa
Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal and Santa Rosa
Inland. In southeast Mississippi, George, Greene, Perry, Stone and
Wayne.
* From Monday morning through Thursday morning
* Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Sally are expected to
spread into the area beginning early Monday morning and will
continue over the watch area through at least early Thursday
morning. Total rainfall amounts in the watch area will be 6 to 12
inches with locally higher amounts near 20 inches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
_______________________________________________________________
*************************************************
Tropical Storm Warning
Sally Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL192020
354 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Mobile
- Prichard
- Theodore
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
___________________________________________________________
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Monday afternoon until early Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation affecting locations such as from the
Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries,
including downtown Mobile. Damage to several buildings.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots. The US 90 Causeway will experience
significant flooding.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
_____________________________________________________
FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
____________________________________________________________
TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Mobile County EMA: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: http://www.weather.gov/mob
____________________________________________________________
***********************************************
Hurricane Watch
354 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Mobile
- Prichard
- Theodore
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Monday afternoon until early Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation affecting locations such as from the
Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries,
including downtown Mobile. Damage to several buildings.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots. The US 90 Causeway will experience
significant flooding.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Mobile County EMA: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: http://www.weather.gov/mob
____________________________________________________________
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Storm Surge Watch
STORM SURGE WATCH
NWS MOBILE AL
354 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2020
ALZ263-140500-
/O.CON.KMOB.SS.A.1019.000000T0000Z-
000000T0000Z/
354 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2020
Mobile Central-
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Mobile
- Prichard
- Theodore
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
______________________________________________________________
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Monday afternoon until early Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
____________________________________________________________
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation affecting locations such as from the
Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries,
including downtown Mobile. Damage to several buildings.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots. The US 90 Causeway will experience
significant flooding.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
___________________________________________________
__________________________________________________
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
_________________________________________________
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Mobile County EMA: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: http://www.weather.gov/mob
===========================================
Hurricane Local Statement
Tropical Storm Sally Local Statement Advisory Number 8
ALZ263>266-FLZ202 [login to see] 45-
Tropical Storm Sally Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL [login to see] AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
**TROPICAL STORM SALLY IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO**
NEW INFORMATION
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Baldwin Inland
- A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal,
Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia Coastal,
Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 290 miles southeast of Mobile AL or about 250 miles
southeast of Pensacola FL
- 27.5N 84.9W
- Storm Intensity 60 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 mph
___________________________________________________________
------------------
At 10:00 AM CDT, Tropical Storm Sally will move west-northwest to
northwest into the north central Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then
begin to slow its forward speed. The cyclone should turn north at a
slow rate of speed and approach the north central Gulf coast by Tuesday
evening.
This system will bring an extended period of heavy rains with amounts
of 6 to 12 inches expected, with locally higher amounts up to 20 inches
across the western Florida panhandle, coastal southwest Alabama and
southeast Mississippi. Tropical Storm Force winds are likely along the
immediate coastlines of Alabama and much of the western Florida
Panhandle. If the storm were to take a more eastward track then
currently forecast, then hurricane force winds would be possible. A
Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for coastal Alabama where water
levels of 2 to 4 feet above dry ground are possible. Further to the
east, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect with water levels of 1 to 3
feet above dry ground expected along the western Florida panhandle. A
few tornadoes are also possible mainly across the western Florida
panhandle, extreme southwestern Alabama and extreme southeast
Mississippi. In addition, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are
expected along the beaches with dangerous wave run up likely.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeast Mississippi, extreme southwestern
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff
may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers
may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
______________________________________________________________
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across interior southwest Alabama and portions of
south central Alabama.
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal Alabama. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
southeast Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, the western Florida
panhandle and extreme south central Alabama. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.
======================================================
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of extreme southeast Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and
coastal sections of the western Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across interior southeast Mississippi, interior southwest Alabama,
interior sections of the western Florida panhandle, and portions of
south central Alabama.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to
get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead
of time.
Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!
There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: [login to see] or
http://www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: [login to see] or http://www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: [login to see] or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: [login to see] http://www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: [login to see] or http://www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service
in Mobile AL around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
_______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
FLORIDA
Sebring Regional Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTHWEST/
CLIMO 10-12 88/74 88/75 88/75
*79 73 81%*
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.90 XXXXX/
_____________________________________________________________
Winter Haven/Gilbert Field A,FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 4 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/ RAIN BEGAN 1924Z/ RAINFALL 0.05 INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 92/76 91/77 89/77 *78 74 87%*
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.91 XXXXX/
___________________________________________________________
Gainesville Regional Airport, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST/
RAIN BEGAN 1859/ ENDED 1925Z/ RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/73 89/75 88/74
/81 75 82%/
WINDS EASTERLY 10MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.92 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________________
Ft. Walton Bch, Hurlburt Air, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY MILES 2 3/4 HEAVY
RAIN/FOG/ RAIN BEGAN 1924Z/ ENDED 1931/
CLIMO 10-12 92/73 92/73 90/75
/81 73 79%/
WINDS EASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING 21MPH
29.84 XXXXX/
_________________________________________________
Jacksonville Internationa Air, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTH/
TCU (TOWERING CUMULUS- RAIN SHOWER) SOUTHWEST/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 89/76 86/75
/81 77 88%/
WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 6MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.92 XXXXX/
_____________________________________________________________
Tyndall AirForce Base, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/
PEAK WIND SOUTHEAST 33MPH/ 1923/
RAIN BEGAN 1924/ RAINFALL 0.36
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 89/75 93/74
/78 75 89%/
WINDS EASTERLY 15MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.82 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________
Pensacola International Air, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/
PEAK WIND EAST-SOUTHEAST 26MPH/1957
LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST/
RAIN BEGAN 2013/ RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 93/75 88/75 91/75
/82 76 82%/
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 17MPH GUSTING 24MPH
29.85 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________
Tallahassee International Air, FL. \
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 3 MILES/ THUNDERSTORMS/MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS/FOG/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST/
RAIN BEGAN 1957/
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING/ IN CLOUD/ CLOUD TO GROUND
OVERHEAD/ RAINFALL 0.01IN/
CLIMO 10-12 92/76 89/77 93/76 /78 74 87%/
WINDS SOUTHERLY 14MPH GUSTING 30MPH
29.86 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________
Valparaiso/Eglin AFB, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ RAINFALL 0.24
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 92/73 92/73 91/75 /81 75 84%/
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.86 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________________
Cocoa Beach/Patrick AFB, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT WEST/
CLIMO 10-12 89/77 89/80 88/78
/84 72 68%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 16MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.89 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________
Cross City Airport, FL.
FAIR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTHEAST/
CLIMO 10-12 93/75 91/76 93/75 /78 77 94%/
WINDS SOUTHERLY 6MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.86 XXXXX/
_________________________________________________________
Homestead Air Force Base, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 89/77 79/76
/84 79 84%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.86 XXXXX/
_______________________________________________________
Lakeland Regional Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/75 90/75 84/75
/79 73 84%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.90 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________
Tampa/MacDill Air Force BaseFL.
FAIR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
RAIN ENDED
CLIMO 10-12 90/75 91/76 88/76
/77 73 89%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 16MPH GUSTING 23MPH
29.85 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________________
Marathon Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 90/78 89/81 79/74 /85 79 82%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/
___________________________________________________________
Keywest Naval Air Stn Airport,FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 86/76 92/83 86/78 /87 78 75%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________
St. Petersburg Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT RAIN/FOG/ RAINFALL 0.01 INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 93/78 90/78 87/76
/78 76 93%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING 20MPH
29.85 XXXXX/
________________________________________________________
Tampa International Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/77 92/83 84/77
/79 71 77%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING 21MPH
29.86 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________
Keywest International Airport FL
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 89/75 93/83 85/77
/87 76 70%/
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 13MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/
______________________________________________________
Keywest International Airport FL
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 88/80 93/83 87/82
/84 76 77%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 12MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.89 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________
Miami International Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 5 MILES/ LIGHT
RAIN/FOG/ RAINBEGAN 1956/ RAINFALL 0.04/
CLIMO 10-12 88/76 91/79 84/76
/83 77 82%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.87 XXXXX/
_______________________________________________________________
Brooksville/Hernando Airport, FL
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
RAINFALL 0.00
INCHES/
CLIMO 10-12 91/74 91/75 88/76
/79 75 88%/
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 9MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.88 XXXXX/
__________________________________________________________
Okeechobee County Airport. FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY/ LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST/ KOBE CLIMO 10-12 81/73 90/73 81/72
/81 72 74%/
WINDS CALM GUSTING XXXXX
29.88 XXXXX/
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Apalachicola Muni Airport, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 10-12 87/76 91/75 92/76
/84 75 74%/
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 14MPH GUSTING 29MPH
29.79 XXXXX/
____________________________________________________________________
GOES-East - Sector view: Southeast - GeoColor - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Posted from star.nesdis.noaa.gov
State of Florida
Mississippi State
Biloxi
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 1
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