WORD OF THE DAY

certitude
https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/certitude

If you're absolutely convinced your team is going to the Super Bowl, you state it with certitude or confidence.

Your team didn't make it? Oh dear, you were guilty of certitude — an absolute conviction that the outcome of the game did not support. In other words, you were a tad cocky. Certitude is very similar to certainty, and often used interchangeably, but there's a hint of danger about certitude; someone who displays it may well be overconfident. Certainty is more certain.
Definitions of certitude

noun
total certainty or greater certainty than circumstances warrant

synonyms: cocksureness, overconfidence