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From: The Washington Post
It is not political gravity but his mouth that has finally caught up with Donald Trump. The polls show the steady shift in support toward candidates with policy credibility while each interview reveals his lack thereof.
In polling, his national numbers are all in one direction: Down. His RealClearPolitics average, once 30.5 percent, is now below 23 percent. (In one poll, albeit an outlier for now, Trump is down to 17 percent, trailing Dr. Ben Carson by 7 points.) In Iowa and New Hampshire he’s down from highs in the low 30’s to 24 percent and 25.3 percent, respectively, in the RCP average. Carson is now only 11 behind in Iowa and about 5 in New Hampshire. We don’t even know if his actual totals are that high. Those who have stuck with him after one inane or bigoted remark after another may well be the non-serious primary voters who are telling pollsters they still like the reality-show celebrity.
It is easy to see why support for Trump is collapsing. For one thing, articulate, informed competitors are getting attention. Nationally, Carly Fiorina and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are on the rise. In Iowa, aside from the evangelical-friendly Carson, Fiorina is moving up steadily. In New Hampshire, the latest Marist/NBC poll shows Trump’s support is down to 21 points with Fiorina up to 16 percent, Jeb Bush (reflecting his ad buy and more frequent appearances) up to 11 points and Rubio and Carson at 10 points. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie surged to 7 percent.
There is no secret why conscientious voters are abandoning Trump. Aside from obnoxious insults, his utterances reflect a bizarre policy brew of exaggeration, fallacy and liberal convictions. In two embarrassing interviews, NBC’s Chuck Todd and ABC’s George Stephanopoulos hounded him on taxes, the debt and Syria. Under pressure Trump conceded he, like other rich Americans, was going to save big on his tax plan, falsely marketed as a populist scheme. Other than insisting the impossible — 6 percent growth — he had no rejoinder to the independent study showing his plan adding to the debt by at least $10 trillion. On ABC it went like this:
STEPHANOPOULOS: More and more Americans will pay nothing at all. But the Conservative Tax Foundation says it will increase the deficit by about $10 trillion over 10 years.
TRUMP: What do they know? George, what do they know? I mean they’ve been doing this stuff for years.
STEPHANOPOULOS: They run the numbers.
TRUMP: Can I tell you what? They’ve been doing this stuff for years. They’re so off. You look at their past projections, they are so far off. People — this is a very dynamic plan.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So it’s not going to increase the deficit?
TRUMP: People are going — well, if it works the way I want it to work it’s not because we’re going to bring back jobs. I am going to bring back so many jobs. One of the things that we’re coming out with in the next three or four weeks is cutting. And the cutting is a big part of my plan.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So you’re going to come up with cuts that will close that hole?
TRUMP: We’re going to come up with very substantial cuts and —
STEPHANOPOULOS: Give me one.
TRUMP: The Department of Education. We’re going to do cutting. And the economy is going to grow exponentially.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You also said that this tax plan is going to cost you a fortune.
TRUMP: It will cost me a lot of money.
STEPHANOPOULOS: How do you get there?
TRUMP: Well, I’ll tell you what. I have carried interest, like a lot of other people do, and carried interest is a wonderful thing, but it’s unfair. . . .
STEPHANOPOULOS: According to your financial disclosure you made, what, about $250 million in the last year?
TRUMP: $605 million.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, 605. The top rate goes from 40 percent to about 25 percent.
TRUMP: Right.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Capital gains comes down from 23 to 20.
TRUMP: Right.
STEPHANOPOULOS: That’s a huge — that’s tens of millions of savings for you.
TRUMP: Everybody’s going to save, according to my plan, and that money — you know where that money’s going?
STEPHANOPOULOS: That means you’re not going to be spending — you’re not going to be paying more taxes though.
TRUMP: That money is going back into other things.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But you’re going to get a tax cut?
TRUMP: I don’t know because I have very big deductions that are frankly some of them are ridiculous. You’re entitled to deductions. So I don’t know that I am. I think —
STEPHANOPOULOS: But not 605 million dollars’ worth.
TRUMP: I think that probably I’ll end up paying more under this. To be honest, I don’t think I’m going to. If you look at all of the kinds of deductions that people are allowed to take, that you’re not going to be taking anymore, including carried interest, that’s just one of them, I think I probably don’t do as well. . . .
STEPHANOPOULOS: Bottom line, you do accept that you are going to make out well under your tax plan?
TRUMP: I don’t know. I mean if the economy is good, if the economy is great, everybody makes out well so.
Moreover, as Chuck Todd’s questioning over on NBC revealed, Trump isn’t going to touch entitlements either so the plan is virtually certain to bust the budget. In other words Trump’s main claims — it would not increase the deficit and it would soak the rich — are nonsense.
On national security Trump is even worse. After hearing Trump vouch for an even smaller Middle East footprint (!) and willingness to concede the region to Russia Christie on ABC chided him, “Donald should be concerned that he’s agreeing with Barack Obama, because just when you think it can’t get worse, it does. And just when you think this foreign policy can’t cost more to the American people, it does. We don’t need to be friends with Vladimir Putin and we don’t need to be worried about whether he’s in a quagmire. After 40 years, we allowed Russia back into the Middle East. And now who are they partnered with? Iran.” Actually, it’s more like a cross between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) On defense spending, because Trump is so wonderful, we will have a better military and it will cost less!
Serious voters have figured out this is rubbish. (Notice that the talk radio entertainers still backing him don’t care about serious policy, either, just a partner in xenophobic rants.) Either Trump is not smart, does not take this seriously, has no conservative ideology — or more likely, all three. He’s taken to reminding interviewers that if his poll numbers go south he’ll go back to business. Indeed, why hang around and become just another “loser”?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2015/10/05/trumps-fade-into-incoherence/
It is not political gravity but his mouth that has finally caught up with Donald Trump. The polls show the steady shift in support toward candidates with policy credibility while each interview reveals his lack thereof.
In polling, his national numbers are all in one direction: Down. His RealClearPolitics average, once 30.5 percent, is now below 23 percent. (In one poll, albeit an outlier for now, Trump is down to 17 percent, trailing Dr. Ben Carson by 7 points.) In Iowa and New Hampshire he’s down from highs in the low 30’s to 24 percent and 25.3 percent, respectively, in the RCP average. Carson is now only 11 behind in Iowa and about 5 in New Hampshire. We don’t even know if his actual totals are that high. Those who have stuck with him after one inane or bigoted remark after another may well be the non-serious primary voters who are telling pollsters they still like the reality-show celebrity.
It is easy to see why support for Trump is collapsing. For one thing, articulate, informed competitors are getting attention. Nationally, Carly Fiorina and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are on the rise. In Iowa, aside from the evangelical-friendly Carson, Fiorina is moving up steadily. In New Hampshire, the latest Marist/NBC poll shows Trump’s support is down to 21 points with Fiorina up to 16 percent, Jeb Bush (reflecting his ad buy and more frequent appearances) up to 11 points and Rubio and Carson at 10 points. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie surged to 7 percent.
There is no secret why conscientious voters are abandoning Trump. Aside from obnoxious insults, his utterances reflect a bizarre policy brew of exaggeration, fallacy and liberal convictions. In two embarrassing interviews, NBC’s Chuck Todd and ABC’s George Stephanopoulos hounded him on taxes, the debt and Syria. Under pressure Trump conceded he, like other rich Americans, was going to save big on his tax plan, falsely marketed as a populist scheme. Other than insisting the impossible — 6 percent growth — he had no rejoinder to the independent study showing his plan adding to the debt by at least $10 trillion. On ABC it went like this:
STEPHANOPOULOS: More and more Americans will pay nothing at all. But the Conservative Tax Foundation says it will increase the deficit by about $10 trillion over 10 years.
TRUMP: What do they know? George, what do they know? I mean they’ve been doing this stuff for years.
STEPHANOPOULOS: They run the numbers.
TRUMP: Can I tell you what? They’ve been doing this stuff for years. They’re so off. You look at their past projections, they are so far off. People — this is a very dynamic plan.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So it’s not going to increase the deficit?
TRUMP: People are going — well, if it works the way I want it to work it’s not because we’re going to bring back jobs. I am going to bring back so many jobs. One of the things that we’re coming out with in the next three or four weeks is cutting. And the cutting is a big part of my plan.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So you’re going to come up with cuts that will close that hole?
TRUMP: We’re going to come up with very substantial cuts and —
STEPHANOPOULOS: Give me one.
TRUMP: The Department of Education. We’re going to do cutting. And the economy is going to grow exponentially.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You also said that this tax plan is going to cost you a fortune.
TRUMP: It will cost me a lot of money.
STEPHANOPOULOS: How do you get there?
TRUMP: Well, I’ll tell you what. I have carried interest, like a lot of other people do, and carried interest is a wonderful thing, but it’s unfair. . . .
STEPHANOPOULOS: According to your financial disclosure you made, what, about $250 million in the last year?
TRUMP: $605 million.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, 605. The top rate goes from 40 percent to about 25 percent.
TRUMP: Right.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Capital gains comes down from 23 to 20.
TRUMP: Right.
STEPHANOPOULOS: That’s a huge — that’s tens of millions of savings for you.
TRUMP: Everybody’s going to save, according to my plan, and that money — you know where that money’s going?
STEPHANOPOULOS: That means you’re not going to be spending — you’re not going to be paying more taxes though.
TRUMP: That money is going back into other things.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But you’re going to get a tax cut?
TRUMP: I don’t know because I have very big deductions that are frankly some of them are ridiculous. You’re entitled to deductions. So I don’t know that I am. I think —
STEPHANOPOULOS: But not 605 million dollars’ worth.
TRUMP: I think that probably I’ll end up paying more under this. To be honest, I don’t think I’m going to. If you look at all of the kinds of deductions that people are allowed to take, that you’re not going to be taking anymore, including carried interest, that’s just one of them, I think I probably don’t do as well. . . .
STEPHANOPOULOS: Bottom line, you do accept that you are going to make out well under your tax plan?
TRUMP: I don’t know. I mean if the economy is good, if the economy is great, everybody makes out well so.
Moreover, as Chuck Todd’s questioning over on NBC revealed, Trump isn’t going to touch entitlements either so the plan is virtually certain to bust the budget. In other words Trump’s main claims — it would not increase the deficit and it would soak the rich — are nonsense.
On national security Trump is even worse. After hearing Trump vouch for an even smaller Middle East footprint (!) and willingness to concede the region to Russia Christie on ABC chided him, “Donald should be concerned that he’s agreeing with Barack Obama, because just when you think it can’t get worse, it does. And just when you think this foreign policy can’t cost more to the American people, it does. We don’t need to be friends with Vladimir Putin and we don’t need to be worried about whether he’s in a quagmire. After 40 years, we allowed Russia back into the Middle East. And now who are they partnered with? Iran.” Actually, it’s more like a cross between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) On defense spending, because Trump is so wonderful, we will have a better military and it will cost less!
Serious voters have figured out this is rubbish. (Notice that the talk radio entertainers still backing him don’t care about serious policy, either, just a partner in xenophobic rants.) Either Trump is not smart, does not take this seriously, has no conservative ideology — or more likely, all three. He’s taken to reminding interviewers that if his poll numbers go south he’ll go back to business. Indeed, why hang around and become just another “loser”?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2015/10/05/trumps-fade-into-incoherence/
Donald Trump
Politics
Election 2016
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 9
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I cannot wait to see how much Trump is going to claim this campaign is going to cost him in deductions next year as a business expense. Trump's not stupid by any means. For all this bravado he's showing (even with the ignorance), there is a plan in there. I can't fault him for going after fox the way he did, nor any other mainstream media. He wants to show how stupid they play us for. Trump you definitely have my fantasy vote in 2016.
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Trump will not win the nomination, nor should he. If you want a GOP version of President Obama where it's all about "me," vote for Trump. Seriously, listen to him speak... It's all "me," "I," or "my" and a token "Make America Great Again." I will not vote for Trump.
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When his numbers fall to where Cruz or Kasich are at... at that point he will be fading out. At the moment he's still (despite the wishful thinking of the 3/4 who don't support him) the front runner. In the end it's going to come down to the size of the field, if on election day there are still a dozen or more contenders, he stands a real chance. If there are only 2 or 3 at that point, he might as well pack up and go home.
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