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A split in the Taliban will complicate any type of peace talks which have already collapsed as the hard liners see this as a point of weakness. Two Taliban networks will result in turf wars over areas in Afghanistan as controlled territory equals power for insurgent/terrorist networks. The two houses of the Taliban could result in new alliances or shifting loyalties as each vie to come out on top of the power grab. It is unlikely that there will be a settlement between the two parties; it is very reminiscent of criminal gangs and organized crime families fighting for dominance.
Read the rest:
http://intellpov.com/2015/12/08/taliban-splintering-means-deadlier-afghanistan/
Read the rest:
http://intellpov.com/2015/12/08/taliban-splintering-means-deadlier-afghanistan/
Taliban
Afghanistan
Terrorism
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 6
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I think that if the Taliban wants to engage in infighting, we should do what we can to safeguard the population and grab the popcorn.
The establishment of ISIS franchises in Afghanistan is a much more serious problem.
The establishment of ISIS franchises in Afghanistan is a much more serious problem.
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SSG Norman Lihou
You are right that this is a great opportunity to let them destroy each other, it's just that waht emerges from the carnage may be a deadlier Taliban. You also hit the nail on head 1SG Jerry Healy when you say that the population will need more protection as they will be caught in the crossfire of the infighting. As I said in another response though opportunities for collection on the terrorist could be at a prime as each one looks to take the other and may be more willing to give up information on the competition. not saying it will happen but desperation may drive some of cells right into the arms of security as survival is a strong instinct.
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1SG (Join to see)
SSG Norman Lihou
It will certainly be a target rich environment when they make moves against each other or are displaced. The real opportunity will lie in when one unwelcome faction moves into an unfriendly area. Lots of opportunity to win some new allies.
It will certainly be a target rich environment when they make moves against each other or are displaced. The real opportunity will lie in when one unwelcome faction moves into an unfriendly area. Lots of opportunity to win some new allies.
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In fighting ... is a sign that they are consolidating power ... When they are done, usually they will become much stronger. So before that happen, what should we do? (this is the right question) :)
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SSG Norman Lihou
This will be have to watched carefully, however, you are right that whoever comes out on top will probably be more powerful than before as splintering usually (not always) means that violence and extremism levels rise. You ask a great question about what we can do, probably very little about the in-fighting but this might be the time to exploit any cracks in alliances. This could provide intelligence collection as chatter/communications may increase as attacks between the networks happen. there may be a chance, even slight, that the networks may be wiling to give up information on their opponent in the hope that this information could lead to targeting of the other networks. Since this will turn into survival of the fittest, opportunities could appear that allows the international security forces and Afghanistan forces to exploit weakened terrorist networks, these could be fleeting and the timeliness of information will be critical.
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Nothing good will come of this. These people have been at one anothers throats for years and there is nothing we can do to stop it.
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SPC Michael Duricko, Ph.D
1stSgt Jim S: Why stop it? Let them kill each other off and when two other factions try to take over and battle each other, let them kill each other off as well. Great way to rid the world of terrorists except small groups that will always exist, even in our Country.
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