Posted on Mar 10, 2018
Imagine what happens to North Korea leadership after (Wall comes down), Peace, or War?
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I am writing an article and could leverage RP brain power. I have some paragraphs talking about
1. East German General Secretary Erich Honecher resigned in October 1989. Part of the reason was the unrest in East Germany and he had kidney cancer.
2. Spymaster of East Germany
Markus Wolf, was the communist East Germany’s long-serving spymaster who planted over 4,000 agents in the west, mostly in West Germany from 1951 to 1986. In 1990 he fled to Moscow but returned to the reunified Germany to stand trial after being refused asylum in Austria.
3. Hitler committed suicide and the Nuremberg Trials
4. . It was discovered that the Soviets were grabbing scientist for their future use. U.S. government brought 88 Nazi scientists captured during the fall of the Nazi Germany back to America. Only this time, according to History.com, they were working for the U.S. under a project known as “Operation Paperclip.”
5 ... What do you think will happen to North Korea Kim, Jong Un, Military Leaders, and Intell Leaders. Would US pull some to USA? nK Cyber troops?
1. East German General Secretary Erich Honecher resigned in October 1989. Part of the reason was the unrest in East Germany and he had kidney cancer.
2. Spymaster of East Germany
Markus Wolf, was the communist East Germany’s long-serving spymaster who planted over 4,000 agents in the west, mostly in West Germany from 1951 to 1986. In 1990 he fled to Moscow but returned to the reunified Germany to stand trial after being refused asylum in Austria.
3. Hitler committed suicide and the Nuremberg Trials
4. . It was discovered that the Soviets were grabbing scientist for their future use. U.S. government brought 88 Nazi scientists captured during the fall of the Nazi Germany back to America. Only this time, according to History.com, they were working for the U.S. under a project known as “Operation Paperclip.”
5 ... What do you think will happen to North Korea Kim, Jong Un, Military Leaders, and Intell Leaders. Would US pull some to USA? nK Cyber troops?
North Korea
Cyber
Berlin
Science
Posted 6 y ago
Responses: 22
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If there is war and a leadership vacuum is created: First, their military leaders have a lot of tin and ribbon but not much experience in combat. No gain there. As far a cyber guys most of the good ones will be taken by China. The really good ones will go to China and the mid level will go to S. Korea. Of course there would be few exceptions. Not much left to take from military stand point. If it comes to peaceful exchange: expect Kim to strike a deal where he gets to be king (maybe an arrangement like U.K.) the country’s figure head with no actual political power but a great amount of influence. In a case like that you can expect them to keep their military and cyber forces in tact. Initially you will have the unfaithful run to other countries but most will take their chances in the political arena. That would actually be the best possible outcome. China and Russia might have some issues because they would have a democracy on their border that might be swayed towards the USA. They both have been supporting NK to ensure the buffer is maintained. If anybody can make a deal with Kim it’s probably Trump. Kim might like to be King for life. The biggest winners will be the businesses that strike deals with NK. All that land and cheap labor! China will jump at the possibility of more farm land to feed all those millions of Chinese. Cheaper than buying land in Africa.
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SSgt GG-15 RET Jim Lint
COL (Join to see) You made some great points about CH and RU. Good point about China might also be a competitor for the cyber forces. I wonder why CH would be a bigger winner for cyber forces than South Korea if it is a peaceful resolution. South Korea would pay better, and has the language advantage.
The Kim King idea would appeal to his ego.
STRONGLY agree that business could be the big winner. In past Korea, (all Korea) dynasties the northern area was the area with natural resources. ((Plus, the advantage to closer shipping to the CH market...who would not want to invest in that.))
The Kim King idea would appeal to his ego.
STRONGLY agree that business could be the big winner. In past Korea, (all Korea) dynasties the northern area was the area with natural resources. ((Plus, the advantage to closer shipping to the CH market...who would not want to invest in that.))
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LTC Jason Mackay
SSgt GG-15 RET Jim Lint - North Korea doesn't have significant amounts of farmland, it is more mountainous than the south. Not sure China gains anything on this he feeding people front. Land barely supports the NorKs.
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LCpl Timothy Alvaro
It seems fairly obvious that CIA (rogue-Bush/CIA faction) was largely controlling NK. Now that most of this errant faction has been "diffused", the constant military-industrial-complex directed threat of war is simply moot in that region. Iran is a similar situation (cash deliveries? How obvious can it be?) Anyone truly wanting to understand how the geopolitical landscape has been seeded and cultivated would be well-served to begin with "War is a Racket". It was written by Major General Smedley Butler, the MOST FAMOUS General in American History until he blew the whistle on the 1st Coup-attempt. Thanks to him, the military organized a highly compartmented TF to close with and eventually destroy the domestic-enemies revealed by Butler. What we are witnessing today is that final phase. Have you ever wondered about the "coincidence" of three Marine Corps Generals immediately surrounding the President from the outset of his administration? How about Gen. Kelly moving through DHS TO Chief of Staff? Also, former Army Officer, Mike Pompeo moving through Congress to CIA to Secretary of State?
"Nothing in Washington happens by accident." - Franklin Roosevelt
"Nothing in Washington happens by accident." - Franklin Roosevelt
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1) China steps in for stability & saves them
2) there is a general uprising that makes the French Terror after the revolution look like a kiddies’ squabble. Then back to option #1
In short, i see no option where China doesn’t gain a province or ‘autonomous zone’
2) there is a general uprising that makes the French Terror after the revolution look like a kiddies’ squabble. Then back to option #1
In short, i see no option where China doesn’t gain a province or ‘autonomous zone’
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LTC (Join to see)
Last Summer I had lunch with my Brigade commander and he said that North Korea would not be allowed to fail because China and Russia would invade them from the north to prevent the state from failing.
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Sgt Wayne Wood
LTC (Join to see) i think he’s right... but i lean more toward China
1) China’s closer & has more horse-power in the region
2) even though both Russia & China work together (or at least with common cause) to thwart the US at every opportunity, they still hate & distrust each other. I don’t think China would let Russia roll into North Korea anymore than they’d let the US do so. Let’s not forget the Chinese & the Soviet Union fought a small undeclared war in ‘69 or ‘70 or so & it wasn’t resolved until the early ‘90’s.
1) China’s closer & has more horse-power in the region
2) even though both Russia & China work together (or at least with common cause) to thwart the US at every opportunity, they still hate & distrust each other. I don’t think China would let Russia roll into North Korea anymore than they’d let the US do so. Let’s not forget the Chinese & the Soviet Union fought a small undeclared war in ‘69 or ‘70 or so & it wasn’t resolved until the early ‘90’s.
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LTC (Join to see)
Good point about Russia and China fighting their little war in the late 60s. Yes, China would step in with their "volunteers" just like in December, 1950 against the United Nations.
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So reading into the topic here, how the "wall" comes down is as important as the answer to this question. I believe here are the scenarios:
- the accidental discharge: through a dangerous dance of miscalculation a conventional, nuclear, or hybrid conflict goes hot. The exchange will be massive and destructive particularly for Seoul and therefore any chance of reparation that includes the regime surviving will be summarily fed into the cross cut shredder. The regime and in particular the Kim inner circle will be marked and hunted like animals. The outer circle of generals and cronies will cut deals and rat to save themselves from a firing squad or the claws of the feral mobs. The Juche blindness of the populous will remain long enough for the Kim inner circle to flee to China or Russia where they will evade the free world. We can assume that the regime's dalliances into bitcoin and financial software manipulation has provided them a conduit to build a post DPRK nest egg which will buy them into protection in Russia, China, or some other sympathetic, cash strapped no-go place. We saw this in Iraq with Hussein's inner circle....he and his boys just didn't skate early enough over the border to Syria.
- hunger outpaces fear: if the population experiences a series of harsh winters, droughts, crop failures, and the associated famine....and if the west goes hard line with aid, people's fear of being shot by their government will be overwhelmed by their fear of starving to death. Different feral mobs will have different agendas. Some will focus on pure survival. Some will focus on exploiting the weak and maximizing their position...nK has organized crime too. Some will focus on payback. If we are lucky, there will be a maligned nK military commander still controlling troops that will cut off escape and force the Kim circle to flee, kind of like Gaddafi. Then there will be the grainy footage of Kim and crew hanging from light poles or evicerated by AA weapons or ceremonially squashed by T62s. The lower level apparatus will be taken care of by random mob violence. The apparatus figures in the border areas will jump over the border and disappear.
- wasted money in cosmolene: eventually, the military junta combining their understanding of the outside world and realizing their military equipment and quality of troops will continue to degrade. Conceivably, a general or five will forge a durable alliance, trigger a limited conflict before Lil Kim can rally loyal troops. The junta would likely purge the Kim's 9mm at a time in one fell swoop. No cousins. No uncles. No aunts. No half siblings. Done. The junta would then sue for peace, perhaps installing a western friendly regime that ensures their toe hold and their continued cushy existence.
- weak neighbor: although unlikely, some political, social, economic, or natural disaster befalls the South. The perception of weakness could lead to an opportunity to execute a limited seizure of South Korea, perhaps as far south as the Han River to shift the negotiating balance with the west, take more arable land, and exploit people and resources that are between the DMZ and the Han. Seoul would be in the forward line of advance. The hope would be to seize it intact, perhaps leaving it as a divided city like Berlin. This would be a counter balance to the risk of a counter offensive out of a aversion to the human tragedy of ejecting the nK invaders.
- transition crisis: What if Lil Kim dies due to diabetic shock, gout, flu or some other health crisis? Would the population and apparatus accept Kim's sister? Maybe the junta sees this as their chance. Maybe the Juche wears off and the mob rises. So who comes out on top, will determine who will be left. Anyone's guess.
As for the exploitation of regime Human Resources, that isn't a function of leadership. The victors could give a rip less about them. Intelligence will exploit them and discard them by the most expeditious means available. Their value decreases exponentially after the regime falls. As for the science, engineering, and technology caste, some will flee and go to the highest bidder with the most attractive guilded cage. Some will get snatched up by forces as battlespace environment allows. We have to assume a swath end up in China and Russia.
The reactions and precursor actions of China and Russia will spin all this and I can only assume that if the regime falters, China will install a puppet strongman to retain their strategic buffer.
- the accidental discharge: through a dangerous dance of miscalculation a conventional, nuclear, or hybrid conflict goes hot. The exchange will be massive and destructive particularly for Seoul and therefore any chance of reparation that includes the regime surviving will be summarily fed into the cross cut shredder. The regime and in particular the Kim inner circle will be marked and hunted like animals. The outer circle of generals and cronies will cut deals and rat to save themselves from a firing squad or the claws of the feral mobs. The Juche blindness of the populous will remain long enough for the Kim inner circle to flee to China or Russia where they will evade the free world. We can assume that the regime's dalliances into bitcoin and financial software manipulation has provided them a conduit to build a post DPRK nest egg which will buy them into protection in Russia, China, or some other sympathetic, cash strapped no-go place. We saw this in Iraq with Hussein's inner circle....he and his boys just didn't skate early enough over the border to Syria.
- hunger outpaces fear: if the population experiences a series of harsh winters, droughts, crop failures, and the associated famine....and if the west goes hard line with aid, people's fear of being shot by their government will be overwhelmed by their fear of starving to death. Different feral mobs will have different agendas. Some will focus on pure survival. Some will focus on exploiting the weak and maximizing their position...nK has organized crime too. Some will focus on payback. If we are lucky, there will be a maligned nK military commander still controlling troops that will cut off escape and force the Kim circle to flee, kind of like Gaddafi. Then there will be the grainy footage of Kim and crew hanging from light poles or evicerated by AA weapons or ceremonially squashed by T62s. The lower level apparatus will be taken care of by random mob violence. The apparatus figures in the border areas will jump over the border and disappear.
- wasted money in cosmolene: eventually, the military junta combining their understanding of the outside world and realizing their military equipment and quality of troops will continue to degrade. Conceivably, a general or five will forge a durable alliance, trigger a limited conflict before Lil Kim can rally loyal troops. The junta would likely purge the Kim's 9mm at a time in one fell swoop. No cousins. No uncles. No aunts. No half siblings. Done. The junta would then sue for peace, perhaps installing a western friendly regime that ensures their toe hold and their continued cushy existence.
- weak neighbor: although unlikely, some political, social, economic, or natural disaster befalls the South. The perception of weakness could lead to an opportunity to execute a limited seizure of South Korea, perhaps as far south as the Han River to shift the negotiating balance with the west, take more arable land, and exploit people and resources that are between the DMZ and the Han. Seoul would be in the forward line of advance. The hope would be to seize it intact, perhaps leaving it as a divided city like Berlin. This would be a counter balance to the risk of a counter offensive out of a aversion to the human tragedy of ejecting the nK invaders.
- transition crisis: What if Lil Kim dies due to diabetic shock, gout, flu or some other health crisis? Would the population and apparatus accept Kim's sister? Maybe the junta sees this as their chance. Maybe the Juche wears off and the mob rises. So who comes out on top, will determine who will be left. Anyone's guess.
As for the exploitation of regime Human Resources, that isn't a function of leadership. The victors could give a rip less about them. Intelligence will exploit them and discard them by the most expeditious means available. Their value decreases exponentially after the regime falls. As for the science, engineering, and technology caste, some will flee and go to the highest bidder with the most attractive guilded cage. Some will get snatched up by forces as battlespace environment allows. We have to assume a swath end up in China and Russia.
The reactions and precursor actions of China and Russia will spin all this and I can only assume that if the regime falters, China will install a puppet strongman to retain their strategic buffer.
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SGT (Join to see)
SSgt GG-15 RET Jim Lint - interesting article. But I don’t think we need to worry about a North Korean nuclear strike. LTC Mackay is correct, up until the paltry condemnation. (If anything, they’d be silent. They wouldn’t condemn though, because what if the next nuclear attack happened to them? They would need to maintain the moral authority to act accordingly if struck. Any condemnation, paltry or otherwise, would begin to erode that authority). Any strike of a nuclear capacity is a guaranteed game over for the Kim regime. Our retaliation would be swift, brutal, disproportionate and justified. All Kim DNA traces would be eliminated at least. All North Korean DNA traces would be eliminated at most.
The biggest difference between North Korea today, and say, Japan, 1941, is that the goals of each government are completely opposite. 1941 Japan was an empire focused on empire things, like growth and spheres of influence. They viewed themselves as THE power in the hemisphere. When the oil embargo went into effect, the empire was essentially going to starve (metaphorically). They seized the initiative and struck at Pearl Harbor because waiting would have only meant striking at a later date...when they were hungrier and thirstier. If they wanted to stay in the empire business, they had to fight.
North Korea, though, is a tiny dictatorship. The Kim regime really has one goal. Staying in power. They don’t care about expansion. They don’t care about industry. “Sanctions you say? That’s alright, we’re willing to literally let our people starve” -Kim Jong un (citation needed). Staying in power is goal #1. And 2. And they can get by. Their monetary counterfeit game is legendary, and has been long before Bitcoin was a thing. But their hackers are getting better every hour, also. They farm and fertilize with human waste. They can scrape by. And that’s enough. For them. As long as they’re willing to brutalize their own people in order to sit on the North Korean mountain top, they’ll get by.
At most, they have 60-75 nuclear weapons. They are close to developing or have have at least one hydrogen bomb. But their delivery systems are still unreliable, and haven’t been proven to be tactically effective. But, worst case, let’s say they could launch 15 Hiroshima/Nagasaki types at us. While that would be absolutely awful, that’s still a broken nose that we could absorb and recover from. It would take a while, but it’s true. More realistically, say they successfully deployed 2-4 nuclear weapons in an attack. While the destruction of say Seattle, Guam, San Diego and Honolulu hurts with a capital H, I shutter to think of what our response would be. No coalitions, no international resolutions. Just picture a bald eagle smoking a cigar carrying a switchblade in one talon and a portrait of Andrew Jackson in the other talon, flying through flames. That’s the visual representation of our response.
Japan had something to gain when it attacked the United States. Even though they knew that the chances of victory were ultimately slim, there was a chance. And to stay in the empire business, they had to take it.
North Korea has nothing to gain from a preemptive nuclear strike on the United States. And to stay in the dictatorship business, they don’t have to take that shot. The best they could do is give us a broken nose. And all that would do is ensure their destruction.
The North Korean regime is a lot of things. “Insane” isn’t one of them.
On the flip side of the coin, we can’t afford to preemptively strike North Korea. They could give us a broken nose that we’re not willing to recover from if we don’t have to. They don’t really threaten any of our interests. In fact, they give us a reason to keep a whole bunch of troops in east Asia. And if America loves any anything, it’s a reason to send joes places. So they’ll threaten us, we’ll threaten them...there might even be some meetings like the ones currently happening. (It’s not all that historic. See 2007, 2000, 1994).
None of us have a crystal ball. Including the North Koreans. However, other than death and taxes, just about the only guarantee in life will be the destruction of North Korea following a preemptive nuclear strike against the United States. Survival of the regime is the only goal of the regime. A lot of things might collapse the regime. But they will not do the one thing that is guaranteed to ensure that collapse, which would be to preemptively nuclear strike the US.
Ive written quite a bit on the topic, but I condensed down to some of the relevant wave tops for this response. I hope it didn’t stray too far from the intent of your original post.
The biggest difference between North Korea today, and say, Japan, 1941, is that the goals of each government are completely opposite. 1941 Japan was an empire focused on empire things, like growth and spheres of influence. They viewed themselves as THE power in the hemisphere. When the oil embargo went into effect, the empire was essentially going to starve (metaphorically). They seized the initiative and struck at Pearl Harbor because waiting would have only meant striking at a later date...when they were hungrier and thirstier. If they wanted to stay in the empire business, they had to fight.
North Korea, though, is a tiny dictatorship. The Kim regime really has one goal. Staying in power. They don’t care about expansion. They don’t care about industry. “Sanctions you say? That’s alright, we’re willing to literally let our people starve” -Kim Jong un (citation needed). Staying in power is goal #1. And 2. And they can get by. Their monetary counterfeit game is legendary, and has been long before Bitcoin was a thing. But their hackers are getting better every hour, also. They farm and fertilize with human waste. They can scrape by. And that’s enough. For them. As long as they’re willing to brutalize their own people in order to sit on the North Korean mountain top, they’ll get by.
At most, they have 60-75 nuclear weapons. They are close to developing or have have at least one hydrogen bomb. But their delivery systems are still unreliable, and haven’t been proven to be tactically effective. But, worst case, let’s say they could launch 15 Hiroshima/Nagasaki types at us. While that would be absolutely awful, that’s still a broken nose that we could absorb and recover from. It would take a while, but it’s true. More realistically, say they successfully deployed 2-4 nuclear weapons in an attack. While the destruction of say Seattle, Guam, San Diego and Honolulu hurts with a capital H, I shutter to think of what our response would be. No coalitions, no international resolutions. Just picture a bald eagle smoking a cigar carrying a switchblade in one talon and a portrait of Andrew Jackson in the other talon, flying through flames. That’s the visual representation of our response.
Japan had something to gain when it attacked the United States. Even though they knew that the chances of victory were ultimately slim, there was a chance. And to stay in the empire business, they had to take it.
North Korea has nothing to gain from a preemptive nuclear strike on the United States. And to stay in the dictatorship business, they don’t have to take that shot. The best they could do is give us a broken nose. And all that would do is ensure their destruction.
The North Korean regime is a lot of things. “Insane” isn’t one of them.
On the flip side of the coin, we can’t afford to preemptively strike North Korea. They could give us a broken nose that we’re not willing to recover from if we don’t have to. They don’t really threaten any of our interests. In fact, they give us a reason to keep a whole bunch of troops in east Asia. And if America loves any anything, it’s a reason to send joes places. So they’ll threaten us, we’ll threaten them...there might even be some meetings like the ones currently happening. (It’s not all that historic. See 2007, 2000, 1994).
None of us have a crystal ball. Including the North Koreans. However, other than death and taxes, just about the only guarantee in life will be the destruction of North Korea following a preemptive nuclear strike against the United States. Survival of the regime is the only goal of the regime. A lot of things might collapse the regime. But they will not do the one thing that is guaranteed to ensure that collapse, which would be to preemptively nuclear strike the US.
Ive written quite a bit on the topic, but I condensed down to some of the relevant wave tops for this response. I hope it didn’t stray too far from the intent of your original post.
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LTC Jason Mackay
SGT (Join to see) - we had this conversation started before the following info that sort of changed my mind on some things:
- reports came out that indicated that the nK nuclear test facility was either uninhabitable or had imploded, physically prohibiting further underground tests
- mid,level PLA officers let it slip they had a contingency plan in place to seize and secure nK nuclear sites and assets in case the regime imploded or got out of hand.
- reports came out that indicated that the nK nuclear test facility was either uninhabitable or had imploded, physically prohibiting further underground tests
- mid,level PLA officers let it slip they had a contingency plan in place to seize and secure nK nuclear sites and assets in case the regime imploded or got out of hand.
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SGT (Join to see)
LTC Jason Mackay - I understand that. Your thoughts on my overall, brief assessment, though?
And if I may add to it, if I were advising GEN Dunford and the President. “Mr. President, any overtures of denuclearization on behalf of North Korea should be viewed as nothing more than a stalling tactic. Current intelligence indicates that there have been major setbacks in their nuclear program and facilities. It’s assessed that the recent willingness to accept overtures of peaceful denuclearization is a tactic to delay international pressure on the regime so that nuclear facilities and programs can be reestablished.
Historically, North Korea has used peace overtures as a tactic to achieve strategic gains toward their nuclear capabilities. Each time, promises of nuclear slow downs have ultimately been realized with escalations. There’s no indications that North Korean strategic goals have changed.
History has shown that denuclearized dictators don’t last long. The Kim regime is well aware of this fact. There are no indicators that the primary goal of the Kim regime is anything other than the Kim regime remaining in power.
While avenues of peace on the Korean Peninsula must be explored, it is highly advised that North Korean intentions are not assessed to be genuine.”
Or something along those lines. Thoughts?
And if I may add to it, if I were advising GEN Dunford and the President. “Mr. President, any overtures of denuclearization on behalf of North Korea should be viewed as nothing more than a stalling tactic. Current intelligence indicates that there have been major setbacks in their nuclear program and facilities. It’s assessed that the recent willingness to accept overtures of peaceful denuclearization is a tactic to delay international pressure on the regime so that nuclear facilities and programs can be reestablished.
Historically, North Korea has used peace overtures as a tactic to achieve strategic gains toward their nuclear capabilities. Each time, promises of nuclear slow downs have ultimately been realized with escalations. There’s no indications that North Korean strategic goals have changed.
History has shown that denuclearized dictators don’t last long. The Kim regime is well aware of this fact. There are no indicators that the primary goal of the Kim regime is anything other than the Kim regime remaining in power.
While avenues of peace on the Korean Peninsula must be explored, it is highly advised that North Korean intentions are not assessed to be genuine.”
Or something along those lines. Thoughts?
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CPT (Join to see)
Incredible imagination! You may be right though, although I think the COL up top based more on more diplomatic outcome, you are basing on recent historical trends. Lets see.
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