Posted on Sep 20, 2016
COL Lee Flemming
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Some people swear by them and others do not trust them on a base level, but scientific polling has been a part of our American political fiber for almost a 100 years. What are your thoughts?
Posted in these groups: Elections logo Elections
Edited 8 y ago
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Responses: 10
Col Joseph Lenertz
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Great question! I think it's tough to avoid bias in the type, number, and phrasing of the questions (if you even try). 2nd, it's very difficult to target a truly random representative sample, because I think busier people who value their time more, so will be less likely to complete the poll, when contacted.
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COL Lee Flemming
COL Lee Flemming
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Point taken the random aspect of a poll really goes out the window when you are basically reaching the 2nd, 3rd or 7th choice for answering the survey...
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SPC Shaun Eaves
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The problem by and large with political polls is the way the information is presented. Take the current presidential polls. Statistically, if I take a large enough random sample and present the choices in nonbiased manner (non-leading question phrasing, intonating my preference for the poll taker, counter balancing the answer choices, etc.) I should be able to accurately reflect the mood of the general population with the data that I have collected. However, it should come as no surprise that the major political polls are showing Trump and Clinton both well into the 40%'s. If I present you the question "are you more likely to vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton" then you are forced into an A or B answer psychologically. If I ask you "in this election who do you plan on voting for?" Then you may say Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or Mickey Mouse.

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist (because it isn't a conspiracy that the "two parties" do not want to lose power) but if Gary Johnson is polling above 20% in some polls conducted at state levels and Stein polling at or near 8% in polls conducted at state levels...why do the polls that determine the debate stage have Johnson polling >9% and Stein polling at >5%?
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Capt Retired
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A poll done properly can provide some insight. However, polls can very easily be manipulated and I believe the polls usually show the result that the people paying for them want it to show.
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