How likely for a National Guard Officer to switch to Active Duty?

2LT (Join to see) Take a glimpse to the following link. I have not fully read it but it could possible have the answer you're looking for. https://www.hrc.army.mil/OPMD/Call%20to%20Active%20Duty%20Program

I would say it would be difficult since you aren't qualified yet. I may be wrong though.
I am confused about you not being able to get a school date though. Are you OCS or ROTC? MOSQ(or Officer qual) usually takes highest priority for NG(USR looks bad). If youre ROTC funding should come straight from NGB. OCS is State funded.

I'll caveat COL Charles Williams and note there's always intake of JOs even during downsizing albeit at a reduced rate. The services always need young/junior intake to preclude holes in structure that can last 20 years. So they just turn the spigot down a bit. The math works out like say you have 100 and have to get to 80. They'll push out 35 while bringing in 15 to ensure no serious gaps are created later. Typically they'll undershoot both numbers because some wonk in the Pentagon says there's not much severance, blah, blah, another unfunded mandate. That said, whatever they take in, they can be real choosy so you're in a competition with some advantages and some disadvantages that more knowledge folk on the Army side can weigh in on.

I would say unlikely now, as all components are downsizing. But, I would recommend you contact HRC and see what the process is (assuming there is a process now), and then (if there is) then try. You can't do it, if you don't try.

Sir,
I just signed a GRFD contract that came with a scholarship. I know how you might feel, that you're going to be doing all your service in a place you don't like.
From what I have been told, it all depends on the needs of the Army. Then comes your qualifications. My goal is to get a Master's during my two first years in the Reserve, then because I speak French (native) and have a background in Cyber I could hope for a "lateral transfer".
For NG, I have heard 3 years at least (not counting ADT), so the State get something out of you (I do not have any reg about it, just saying what comes and goes in my BN).

Have you chose NG or have you been put there based on your OML?

All depends on your TAG,if they sign the DD368 (conditional release) or not....

As others have stated this could be hard to do since you are not yet branch qualified. The normal process would be to contact the active duty assignment manager for your branch and find an open slot for you on active duty then to request release from your state to go active duty to that position. The Call to Active Duty program is also a way to go if you are branch qualified which is what you should focus on first. Once you are branch qualified there are more was to get an active duty tour if you want such as PFI and Tour of Duty assignments. If you stay with your current unit just stay engaged with them about getting a training seat and keep yourself prepared to go on short notice (physically and personally). If you want to stay combat arms you may be able to find a combat engineer unit in the Army Reserves and transfer there to gain access to their federal training dollars.
On a final note don't get hung up on the school. You can properly carry out your service by taking care of your Soldiers and learning from those around you (which can better prepare you for the school). Most schools in the Army give you the basics and leave a lot to OJT.

I had a similar situation with one of my LT's about his BOLC date....I worked through both my state Officer strength manager then thru NGB to get him in an ABOLC slot...took a lot of e-mails and phone calls on my part but I got him off to BOLC within 4-5 months....call your State OSM then reach out to the NGB branch manager who traps BOLC slots in the schools houses for your particular branch and see what slots are open people have to cancel BOLC slots all the time because things in life come up...even if your state is broke you should still be able to go to BOLC within 4-6 months...BLUF its a readiness metric than your state is measured by MOS qualified officers....if your willing consider switching branches you can easily do so as you haven't been to BOLC yet...As far as going active odds are probably against you with the down-sizing but I'm certainly not expert on that area...good luck....If all else fails e-mail/call weekly asking for updates from those in your state who allocate BOLC slots....the thing that itches the most gets scratched first....consider going to another state if feasible as well some states have more school slots trapped than others....for example PA has more BOLC slots than NJ because they have more soldiers within the state but are geographically close so you could be a member of either if you live close enough to a unit that is within your branch. Hope everything turns out well

LT - what you're experiencing is not surprising. Keep in mind that the Guard is tied by state budgets and federal supplementals. How long has it been since you've commissioned? What branch? If you're looking to just get to BOLC, I would engage your state about transferring to the Reserve - they have Title X funding and different priorities. Except for my chaplain candidate, Ive had every LT assigned to my command to BOLC within a year of commissioning - no sense in having a 1LT promotion delayed over something that small.

As for the Call to Active Duty, you can always apply after you've been to BOLC but it's dependent upon strength and what branch you are. Most ROTC cadets at programs I recruit from tend to have GRFD contracts now and are competing for increasingly rare RA slots.

Don't lose hope and play the long game. You're "young enough" in your career to jump around for the sake of progression - just be smart about it and always jump to something rather than jumping away out of frustration.