Posted on Mar 5, 2015
If I get passed over for promotion: Should I stay or should I go?
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I'm a TPU Reservist CW2 255A (Signal). This April is my first look for CW3, to be promoted next year if I make it. I've already decided that if I don't make it (I find out in July) that I'll put in a packet for retirement.
Mentioning that makes many want to convince me to stay.
They tell me it's a numbers game, and IF I get passed over this April, that's no indicator that I'd get passed over next April.
I have all COM OERs, except for my last one which was an ACOM from the rater only. The senior rater was made to be someone from the unit's higher HQs in Indianapolis who doesn't know me and never met me.
I have a Master's degree and two Bachelor's degrees, but no current industry certifications.
The selection rate in 2014 for SC TPU CW2s was 85%. That could be taken one of two ways....either they have a dire need for CW3s in my field, or they've got enough now, and the next selection rate will be a lot lower.
So...I'm throwing the question open to RallyPoint: If I get passed over in my first look, should I stay in for my 2nd look, or should I retire right away?
NOTE: If I do stay after getting passed over once, and I get passed over twice, I will HAVE to retire anyway...I won't get a choice. USARC brought back the 'two strikes and you're out' rule for Warrant Officers.
UPDATE AS OF 1 DECEMBER 2018 - Obviously, I made it. Thank you everyone for your input. My next promotion I've already decided is my last, whether I make it or not. I don't have to worry about it for another three years or so.
Mentioning that makes many want to convince me to stay.
They tell me it's a numbers game, and IF I get passed over this April, that's no indicator that I'd get passed over next April.
I have all COM OERs, except for my last one which was an ACOM from the rater only. The senior rater was made to be someone from the unit's higher HQs in Indianapolis who doesn't know me and never met me.
I have a Master's degree and two Bachelor's degrees, but no current industry certifications.
The selection rate in 2014 for SC TPU CW2s was 85%. That could be taken one of two ways....either they have a dire need for CW3s in my field, or they've got enough now, and the next selection rate will be a lot lower.
So...I'm throwing the question open to RallyPoint: If I get passed over in my first look, should I stay in for my 2nd look, or should I retire right away?
NOTE: If I do stay after getting passed over once, and I get passed over twice, I will HAVE to retire anyway...I won't get a choice. USARC brought back the 'two strikes and you're out' rule for Warrant Officers.
UPDATE AS OF 1 DECEMBER 2018 - Obviously, I made it. Thank you everyone for your input. My next promotion I've already decided is my last, whether I make it or not. I don't have to worry about it for another three years or so.
Posted in these groups: 
Retirement
Promotions
Retirement Promotions
Edited 7 y ago
Posted 11 y ago
Responses: 18
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The Clash - Should I Stay Or Should I Go
This is the song "Should I Stay Or Should I Go" from The Clash with the lyrics :)
Actually, do what is right for you and your family. The Reserves is going to do what they do.
Should I stay of should I go? If you stay there will be trouble, if you go there will be trouble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqH21LEmfbQ
Should I stay of should I go? If you stay there will be trouble, if you go there will be trouble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqH21LEmfbQ
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My uncle was a pilot/lieutenant in the Army Air Corps prior to WWII and spoke of watching the obituaries to see the ranks of those who had died. Attrition by death in those times seems to have been the only way to open up opportunities for advancement.
When war broke out in Europe, he volunteered to fly photo recon over German and shipped out to England as soon as he could. Ultimately, he retired as a colonel.
It seems that we may be entering a similar period as we pretend to be at peace.
How long will it last? At least another two years would be my guess, then there should be lots of opportunity for advancement.
Can you hold out that long?
When war broke out in Europe, he volunteered to fly photo recon over German and shipped out to England as soon as he could. Ultimately, he retired as a colonel.
It seems that we may be entering a similar period as we pretend to be at peace.
How long will it last? At least another two years would be my guess, then there should be lots of opportunity for advancement.
Can you hold out that long?
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CW3 (Join to see)
The first decision point is four months from now, and I would only have to 'hold out' another year of one weekend a month and two weeks out of the year.
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As a fresh warrant only about mid way through flight school, I don't know if it's just ignorance on my part or what, so if you could kindly educate me. I'm seeing the logic in the "first look...f- it thought process. Why wouldn't you see it out until the second look? I understand if you're done, you're done, but if that's dependent on whether or not you get promoted, why call it find before the possibility is exhausted? I'll be in the same boat when it's time for me to get looked at for CW3 years from now. I'll have 20yrs in so it's not exactly a tragedy if I don't get picked up. I joined when I was 17 so I'll be pretty young compared to average. Plenty of time for a whole other career. I think Lt Col Jim Coe had the best advice for you though, but honestly I really am confused as to why the first look is your potentially your decision point. Best of luck to you. From everything I've seen on the enlisted side, most of that surrounded by warrants, large number pickups rarely come alone anyway. You seem like a stand up guy anyway, I doubt you have much to worry about.
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CW3 (Join to see)
The logic is this: With a Master's degree and two Bachelor's degrees, I already have an advantage over my peers...so if I don't get selected, that's probably going to be something that can't be corrected in time for my second look...so it'd be a pretty safe bet I'd get passed over a second time.
If that happens, I'd have stayed a year in the Reserves, garnered an extra 90 points, put stress on my availability to my civilian job, and would have to get out anyway.
If that happens, I'd have stayed a year in the Reserves, garnered an extra 90 points, put stress on my availability to my civilian job, and would have to get out anyway.
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CW3 (Join to see)
Ah I see. I guess I didn't pay attention and realize you were in the reserves. That makes perfect sense though. I had promotions can get pretty goofy on that side of things. Best of luck to you either way.
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CW2 I would wait it out. I had the same issue waiting for CPT. I was worried I would get passed over because the year I got looked at only 49% of 1LT got picked up in AMEDD, hardest board in 20 years. I have 20 years this year however I am going to make the Army say no to me and in the mean time I am getting my Master's degree and will begin working on my Doctorate with the financial help of Uncle Sam. Hang in there it is a tuff time to be in, worse then the cut backs in the 90s but things will turn around again. I looked deep into the reason I became a soldier and then had to look at myself and ask am I better for being in or should I get out? I am a Nurse so getting work for me will be easy but I love the Army way of life.
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I can't tell a person what they should do in a survey. If you want to stay in and hope to be promoted, then give it a chance. If you don't think it's worth your time to wait and see if you'll eventually make it, get out. It is as simple as that. I have about maybe 8 more looks before I would be forced to throw in the towel; and I'm going to use every bit of that time because I want it. One could only hope it doesn't take that long, though. I will find out in a couple of months if I made it this time.
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There are so many different factors to this question. Is there was a job waiting for me with twice the pay and all the benefits? Do I love the job that I am doing? Will I love my new job? Is the place I end up (location wise) where I want or where I have to be? Is my retirement plan already solid and just waiting for the day I hang up my uniform for the last time? Everyone has different reasons for doing this job, what is good for one may not be for another. I love my job but when I am ready to move on it will be because I am finally ready for the next chapter in my life. Just my thoughts though.
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If your heart isn't in it then take a long look at your military career from that standpoint. But if you really like serving then make them say no to you. Don't give up on something to which you have spent years of dedication.
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CW2 (Join to see)
CPO Alfera,
I recently read the same thing. I think it was actually the SecNav who mentioned it. It's not a standing policy but could be shortly. Keep on your recruiting and retention team for updates.
Thanks for the note and for keeping informed.
CW2 Bibelheimer
I recently read the same thing. I think it was actually the SecNav who mentioned it. It's not a standing policy but could be shortly. Keep on your recruiting and retention team for updates.
Thanks for the note and for keeping informed.
CW2 Bibelheimer
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