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The National Hurricane Center is starting to ramp-up towards issuances of the T4 and this system has an 80% chance of blowing up. There are quite a few showers over the open waters but the system is being bogged down. But conditions will ripen during the next day or so, so it is now a wait and see game. The least little shear could tear the system apart. So we will see very soon.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
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Meteorology
Edited >1 y ago
Posted >1 y ago
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Col (Join to see) MAJ Robert (Bob) Petrarca SPC Charles Brown SSG V. Michelle Woods SSG Matt Murphy
In about another hour or so, new information about our Tropical Disturbance near PR will come out. Presently there is no coherent center that can be found.
However during the next 5 days (90% chance) that it or could become a Tropical Storm/Hurricane.
Surface features, especially at this time may cause shear/drag as it moves generally NW. In lieu of any discernible upper winds being apparent, it's movements generally cause the NWward shift and if lucky it will go north and northeast along the SE USA coast and away from the USA altogether.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N71W...
ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N71W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS AROUND THE
AREA OF THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER/SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W
AND 76W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
LOW CENTER/TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W...FROM THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...AND IN
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.
THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 3.14 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.34 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.33 IN BERMUDA...
AND 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER BUREAU IS
REPORTING 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN MILLIMETERS...AS OF 22/1200
UTC...30.4 SANTIAGO CENTRO...27.2 AEROPUERTO PUNTA CANA...24.8
SANCHEZ...19.0 GASPAR HERNANDEZ (ESPAILLAT)...17.7 SAMANA...15.7
AEROPUERTO ARROYO BARRIL...AND 15.2 SABANA GRANDE DE BOYA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W. WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240
NM NW AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT E OF
BAHAMAS. FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY TROPICAL WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. THE NORTHERN
VORTICITY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN 480 NM TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PART OF THE WAVE THAT WE ARE FOLLOWING
ALONG 35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.
In about another hour or so, new information about our Tropical Disturbance near PR will come out. Presently there is no coherent center that can be found.
However during the next 5 days (90% chance) that it or could become a Tropical Storm/Hurricane.
Surface features, especially at this time may cause shear/drag as it moves generally NW. In lieu of any discernible upper winds being apparent, it's movements generally cause the NWward shift and if lucky it will go north and northeast along the SE USA coast and away from the USA altogether.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N71W...
ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N71W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS AROUND THE
AREA OF THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER/SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W
AND 76W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
LOW CENTER/TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W...FROM THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...AND IN
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.
THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 3.14 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.34 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.33 IN BERMUDA...
AND 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER BUREAU IS
REPORTING 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN MILLIMETERS...AS OF 22/1200
UTC...30.4 SANTIAGO CENTRO...27.2 AEROPUERTO PUNTA CANA...24.8
SANCHEZ...19.0 GASPAR HERNANDEZ (ESPAILLAT)...17.7 SAMANA...15.7
AEROPUERTO ARROYO BARRIL...AND 15.2 SABANA GRANDE DE BOYA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W. WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240
NM NW AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT E OF
BAHAMAS. FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY TROPICAL WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. THE NORTHERN
VORTICITY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN 480 NM TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PART OF THE WAVE THAT WE ARE FOLLOWING
ALONG 35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.
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SFC Mark Merino
I quit after I got notification that I was in the running for the Olympics drinking team. I'll be the facilitator SPC Charles Brown
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SPC Charles Brown
SFC Mark Merino come get me, please. I live in Klamath Falls Oregon. I am not hard to find, I live just north of town in an 8 unit bunker complex.
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SFC Mark Merino
SPC Charles Brown My first retirement choice was Grants Pass. I know the area well. I'll see if my friends at Fort Lewis can air assault down there and get this ball rolling!
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SPC Charles Brown
Sounds good. My wife may have a fit, but I would love it. I guess I took one too many shots to the head as a younger version of today's fool. lol
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SSG V. Michelle Woods SPC Charles Brown SFC Mark Merino
Update: 1700 EDT 23 July 2014 -
Tropical Depression #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.
The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA
multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the
left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
That is the forecast for the Tropics at 1700EDT. The storms with T4 is not uniform but there is a closed center with good rotation. At this time and during the next 24-48HRS some intensification will be likely. However as the systems clears the Shearing it will develop faster.
By day 3, the latest computer models largely prefer becoming a Hurricane by 72HRS. Warm air below and divergence aloft is the catalyst for deepening and intensification driven by the adiabatic lift and condensation.
This system indeed seems to one to watch and should hug the coast to close the Carolina coastlines. As always keep an eye on these things and at least initially it does not appear to a major storm but time will tell.
Update: 1700 EDT 23 July 2014 -
Tropical Depression #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.
The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA
multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the
left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
That is the forecast for the Tropics at 1700EDT. The storms with T4 is not uniform but there is a closed center with good rotation. At this time and during the next 24-48HRS some intensification will be likely. However as the systems clears the Shearing it will develop faster.
By day 3, the latest computer models largely prefer becoming a Hurricane by 72HRS. Warm air below and divergence aloft is the catalyst for deepening and intensification driven by the adiabatic lift and condensation.
This system indeed seems to one to watch and should hug the coast to close the Carolina coastlines. As always keep an eye on these things and at least initially it does not appear to a major storm but time will tell.
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SSgt (Join to see)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232048.shtml? Need any help let me know.
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