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A split in the Taliban will complicate any type of peace talks which have already collapsed as the hard liners see this as a point of weakness. Two Taliban networks will result in turf wars over areas in Afghanistan as controlled territory equals power for insurgent/terrorist networks. The two houses of the Taliban could result in new alliances or shifting loyalties as each vie to come out on top of the power grab. It is unlikely that there will be a settlement between the two parties; it is very reminiscent of criminal gangs and organized crime families fighting for dominance.
Read the rest:
http://intellpov.com/2015/12/08/taliban-splintering-means-deadlier-afghanistan/
Read the rest:
http://intellpov.com/2015/12/08/taliban-splintering-means-deadlier-afghanistan/
Posted 10 y ago
Responses: 6
I think that if the Taliban wants to engage in infighting, we should do what we can to safeguard the population and grab the popcorn.
The establishment of ISIS franchises in Afghanistan is a much more serious problem.
The establishment of ISIS franchises in Afghanistan is a much more serious problem.
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SSG Norman Lihou
You are right that this is a great opportunity to let them destroy each other, it's just that waht emerges from the carnage may be a deadlier Taliban. You also hit the nail on head 1SG Jerry Healy when you say that the population will need more protection as they will be caught in the crossfire of the infighting. As I said in another response though opportunities for collection on the terrorist could be at a prime as each one looks to take the other and may be more willing to give up information on the competition. not saying it will happen but desperation may drive some of cells right into the arms of security as survival is a strong instinct.
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1SG (Join to see)
SSG Norman Lihou
It will certainly be a target rich environment when they make moves against each other or are displaced. The real opportunity will lie in when one unwelcome faction moves into an unfriendly area. Lots of opportunity to win some new allies.
It will certainly be a target rich environment when they make moves against each other or are displaced. The real opportunity will lie in when one unwelcome faction moves into an unfriendly area. Lots of opportunity to win some new allies.
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In fighting ... is a sign that they are consolidating power ... When they are done, usually they will become much stronger. So before that happen, what should we do? (this is the right question) :)
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SSG Norman Lihou
This will be have to watched carefully, however, you are right that whoever comes out on top will probably be more powerful than before as splintering usually (not always) means that violence and extremism levels rise. You ask a great question about what we can do, probably very little about the in-fighting but this might be the time to exploit any cracks in alliances. This could provide intelligence collection as chatter/communications may increase as attacks between the networks happen. there may be a chance, even slight, that the networks may be wiling to give up information on their opponent in the hope that this information could lead to targeting of the other networks. Since this will turn into survival of the fittest, opportunities could appear that allows the international security forces and Afghanistan forces to exploit weakened terrorist networks, these could be fleeting and the timeliness of information will be critical.
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Nothing good will come of this. These people have been at one anothers throats for years and there is nothing we can do to stop it.
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SPC Michael Duricko, Ph.D
1stSgt Jim S: Why stop it? Let them kill each other off and when two other factions try to take over and battle each other, let them kill each other off as well. Great way to rid the world of terrorists except small groups that will always exist, even in our Country.
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I see that happening as well. Right now they are unified regional tribes as they are fighting for a common goal and once that goal disappears it is back to their regional tribal structure and fighting between themselves endlessly. I don't see any outside power stepping in to stop that devolution because with the Taliban otherwise busy you can financially rape and pillage Afghanistan of it's natural resources just via bribes to the local Taliban in the area.... if your a neighboring power which is what most of the surrounding countries will do. Why sign an expensive national economic agreement when you can bribe a tribal faction.
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Wait, so this copy paste article you just read about is a new theme on the split between the HIG, the Taliban, and the Haqqani Network that has existed since the earliest days?
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SSG Norman Lihou
I am just concentrating on the fight over the succession of the mantle of the Taliban leader. I know there is fighting and competition between the HIG, Haqqani and Taliban and saw first hand the expansion of Haqqani in Afghanistan. I point out that the top leadership spot was always known to belong to Mullah Omar but his passing has led to a fracturing that was not possible when he was alive. Loyalty lines are being drawn as the Omar family says that the new leader should not be in charge and have seen some of the family targeted as somebody is trying to take them out of the equation. Again, something that was not possible while Omar was alive.
Mullah Omar’s son says he cannot support new Taliban leader By Mohammad Zubair Khan, Islamabad, and Rob Crilly, The Telegraph, 31 Jul 2015
Mullah Omar’s son Mullah Yaqub assassinated: Report By IANS. The Economic Times 4 Aug 2015
Mullah Omar’s Family Challenges New Taliban Leadership By Based on reporting by Reuters, AP, and RFE/RL’s Radio Free Afghanistan, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 2 Aug 2015
Mullah Omar’s son says he cannot support new Taliban leader By Mohammad Zubair Khan, Islamabad, and Rob Crilly, The Telegraph, 31 Jul 2015
Mullah Omar’s son Mullah Yaqub assassinated: Report By IANS. The Economic Times 4 Aug 2015
Mullah Omar’s Family Challenges New Taliban Leadership By Based on reporting by Reuters, AP, and RFE/RL’s Radio Free Afghanistan, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 2 Aug 2015
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SPC (Join to see)
SSG Norman Lihou - You really have to work on your citations because they are neither APA or MLA. I also really don't care about the posts you present to whatever online college thinks this is an academic discussion. You need to go back and re-look the relationship between the HIG, the Haqqanis, and the Taliban.
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SSG Norman Lihou
Thanks for the critique as the citations are not meant to be APA or MLA. They are meant to point outvthe ongoing conflict in the point of succession which parallels the split between the Shiites and Sunnis after the death of the prophet.
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SPC (Join to see)
Then why present crap from The Economist? The issues between the Sunnis and Shiites in Afghanistan actually goes back to the Safavids and Mughals, which occurred well after the death of Muhammad.
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