What are the risks of the $5M, 150kg payload ICBM?

Rocket Lab is a US Huntington Beach CA aerospace corporation with a New Zealand subsidiary that just tested its Electron computer printed rocket which is specified to be able to deliver 150kg payload to 500 km orbit - in other words a small cheap commercially available rocket that is easily capable of delivering the US 23kg W54 250kt yield or a small yet substantially larger yield thermonuclear warhead to almost any site in the world. Rocket Lab's primary launch site is on the Mahia Peninsula NZ where they hope to launch 100+ rockets per year within a year or two - and they are licensed to launch rockets every 72 hours for 30 years. However, take a look at the launch platform - doesn't it remind you of something that could be discretely mounted on a railroad car, stored in a tunnel, rolled out, and launched from a spur with minimal or no notice?

While a small nuclear or thermonuclear warhead might theoretically be delivered by a slow mover - this is nothing like using a small orbital speed vehicle to bypass pesky homeland security, customs, and law enforcement authorities - to scare the dickens out of NORAD - and nearly everyone else. Frankly, the availability of cheap high performance supercomputers and/or networks of smaller computers for rent - together with published codes for design and execution of coupled hydrodynamic and fast reactor physics simulations make quick design of small lightweight thermonuclear weapons a trivial exercise for even minimally skilled physics and engineering students. If your goal is simply to make a mess out of somebody's day - well that is going to be pretty easy within a year or two. The only remaining obstacle is going to be guidance systems capable of precision targeting. Absent nuclear weapons capability - the delivery of high explosives wrapped with some nasty medical radioactive waste isotopes, biological, or chemical agent is becoming even more trivial to accomplish and potentially devastating effects.

Warmest Regards, Sandy :)