What is the probability of switching branches from Army to Air Force?

As a guy who did it, there are some good answers here and both the positive and negative experiences mentioned his truth. If you are a 68W, you may have a more clear path than many, as I had a fairly clear path from MP to Air Force Security Forces. The first thing is to talk to YOUR ARMY COMMANDER about whether or not they will sign the conditional release (DD368). The next step is to talk to an AF recruiter and let them know exactly what your commander told you about the 368. This will do two things: it will let the recruiter know you are both serious about transferring and independent enough to be worth it (two traits they waste their time with regarding Soldiers at an embarrassing rate). Next, your success and the effort they put into you will be proportional to the positivity of your attitude and the quality of your ASVAB scores (a good GT will be an advantage here). Next be knowledgeable about the transition ahead of you; know that the Recruiter you work with DOES NOT NEED a transfer. Also, know that the transition can be awkward - READ (at least) AFH 36-2618, The Enlisted Force Structure to get a baseline of what the Air Force is about. Also know that being a Medic is different than being a Medical Technician and try to have a handle on that. Finally, be ready to answer the questions about what you want… are you locked into Active Duty; are Air National Guard or Air Reserve options? Finally gave a couple of Gen Ed college courses or CLEPs under your belt, you’ll understand that later when the CCAF comes into play.

You probably noticed that my advice is all about convincing the recruiter that you’re worth the effort. Other than that, the toughest part is getting the DD368 signed. I wish you luck in the endeavor.

Or ETS, join the Air National Guard, and request to go active.

I Got a Conditional Release from the Army too the Air Force in 1975. I was told at the time, if i had 10 years or more in the Army i would not have been able too transfer. I only had 7 years so i was allowed to transfer. Never check if this was actually true what the Recruiter had told me.

I did it in 1997. Went from Infantry (15 years) to Air Force Security Forces (13) years.

The best thing one should do is to finish your hitch in the Army and then go to an Air Force recruiter.

Work with a good recruiter and ask good questions. Remember, a recruiters job is to put good people in the right situations. They have superiors too and the one’s that know their job are priceless. There’s plenty of salespersons that like to impress with numbers. Make sure the answers to your questions are what you want to hear. It’ll save you headaches later.

Try Space Force; I understand they are looking for a few good aliens.

Really? You'd rather be in the air force? Well, to each his own I guess

It is not only probable but very possible. I am not sure of what you need to do based on your specialty but I know several Army enlistees and Officers who have done it.

A friend from Vietnam, Marines, after he got out, did join the air force and retired from them