When should an officer expect to be promoted to Captain?

I joined at age 17. Active duty at 18. Vietnam as a PFC at 19. Promoted to E4 and then E5. Infantry school for boys at 20. Captain at age 22 and 9 months. (1966).

When he has the capabilities and proven itself.

I can only speak for the Navy. I was commissioned as an O-2 in mid-1983 and selected/promoted to O-3 a little over a year later in 1984; so the equivalent of three years of service. My first look at O-4 was 6 years later.

ARNG at the 6 year commissioned mark after being selected by a DA promotion board and being placed in an O3 slot you're qualified to be promoted in.

If vacancy promoted by the state, 4 years from commissioning and in an O3 slot you're qualified in.

If on T10 orders, active duty rules apply.

The regulation for eligibility for TIG and TIS requirements has not changed. IE 2 years TIG as 1LT, however, its hit or miss. I just missed this years Reserve CPT Board by 2 Months DOR 1LT so its looking like i will be almost 4 years TIG as 1LT before i actually pin. It seems those that were ROTC seem to be missing the window for DOR by 1-2 months. This years and last years boards considered an 8 month window DOR 1LT from 1JAN12/13 to 31AUG 12/13 respectively.

During Vietnam, some made it in two years (sorta tagged the base at 1LT). Took me 3.5 in the 70's ARMY, 3 as a butter bar and 6 months as a 1LT. BUT I was commanding a Battery as a 1LT and our Battalion Commander wanted his people Rank Appropriate. Didn't make much different, the SPC4's ignored me just the same,,,but they never ignored my 1stSGT!

When were at war within the "normal" time range - when DOD is trying to reduce to the forces, longer & hope you are not invited to leave.

I was commissioned Dec. 19th, 1981, and promoted to Captain in Oct. 1986.

Unlike the other services which establish a hard and fast promote on the 4th aniversary, the Army has permitted promotion to O-3 to float around the 4 year mark based on the needs of the service. I have seen it as high as 4 years 7 months (when I was promoted during the early 90's draw down) to as low as 3 years 2 months during the height of the war in the mid to late '00s. The only constants are that officers seem to depart for the Advanced Officer course at around the same time (four years on initial station or so), and they seem to have the same jobs in BN/BDEs during their initial assignments. The only different is that sometime they fill O-3 level pre-command staff jobs as senior 1LTs when promotions are delayed and as CPTs when promotions are more rapid. In reality, the experience level of the officers filling those positions is pretty constant in terms of years in commissioned service.

The only other constant is that the Army personnel folks will come up with a story to support one dynamic or the other.

I'm long out, but I'll never forget when MILPERCEN sent out a minion to explain DOPMA (Defense Officers Personnel Management Act) which changed a few things for us (this was in '81 an I'm year group '78). Basically, in the interests of political correctness, it limited "below the zone" (discretionary early promotions 6 mos to a year ahead of your year group) to 2% of all promotions. This basically changed being an officer from a meritocracy to civil service. If you were between the bottom 30% (below which was RIF'ed) and the 98% of all, let's say, Captains, you got promoted exactly when everybody else did. That and the fact that they were putting Captains in Majors and LTC slots due to shortages (of course at Captain's pay), really, really took the joy out of trying to excel. If you didn't have a Command and weren't Combat Arms, you weren't gonna make top 2%. I believe i did make O-3 at 4 years at that time. The other thing MILPERCEN informed us was that Time in Service, to make Major had changed from about 8 yrs to 11.5 yrs. When many of reacted in shock, the MILPERCEN minion cited the "needs of the Army" and snarkily added, "we [MILPERCEN] never lie....the truth changes...." I thought that was bit cavalier since it's only people's lives they were messing with and I believed the Army could plan a little better than that (actually, it was related to the administration in office and how popular the Defense budget was vis-a-vis social programs, think Jimmah Carter). Weapons programs have lobbyists, the troops largely don't. This pretty much made my decision to resign after 6 yrs (and my O'seas deployment was up) an easy decision. I almost regretted that decision from time to time....However, one data point did convince me that I did the right thing. DOPMA, we were told, ended "up or out" at the higher ranks, as a lot of Majors and LTC's with 16 and 18 yrs were being let go, with pretty much nothing to show for their service. So, we were told, if you were a Major, with over 14 yrs and had CS&GS school, you were locked til 20. Then they RIF'd my classmate who was a Major with 16 yrs, and Advanced degree (Aerospace), instructor at USMA, cuz his particular branch, had too many Majors). You gotta love it. Hope it's gotten better, and maybe it has. But to tell you the truth, I'm sure i never would have survived the PC and pampering (victim/grievance) culture that's in place now, not only in the MIL but pervasive throughout the Gov't and Academia. To all of you whom are still out there doing your best, thank you greatly for you service.