Posted on Oct 23, 2014
COL Strategic Plans Chief
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WWIII has erupted. Most likely due to dwindling natural resources or because Miley Cirus is still making millions. Whichever. China and Russia form a mutually beneficial alliance and pull in a handful of meaningless fodder countries. The United States comes with NATO behind them. Land and sea operational fronts in India, Pakistan, Georgia-Azerbaijan-Armenia and Turkey, as well as along the Senkakus and the Pacific islands and Alaska. Slow build up to major battles to operational objectives. All out war. Do we get rolled by the massive size of the Armies and Navies we are facing or does our technology and industry win the day?
Posted in these groups: 58712240 WWIIIChina China
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COL Jason Smallfield, PMP, CFM, CM
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Who wins WWIII between China/allies and US/allies depends upon several factors individually and collectively. For example:
- Type of War (attrition, maneuver, revolutionary). China wins an attrition or revolutionary fight based upon numbers for the former and strategic patience for the latter. US wins a maneuver war.
- Environment (sea, air, land, cyber, space). US wins the sea and air. Stalemate in cyber and space. China wins on land.
- Instruments of national power (DIME). US wins diplomatically. Informational and military stalemate. China wins economically.
- Duration. US wins a shorter fight. China wins in a longer fight.
- Definition of "win". Decisive victory is beyond the capability of either side right now. Lower level win in terms of influence or negotiating power is a stalemate or a win for either depending upon how things play out.
- Put the above together and who wins depends upon which side is able to fight on terms that is to its own inherent advantages. US wins in a shorter, sea/air fight that has more wide spread diplomatic support. China wins in a longer, land based, economic fight. I could write a longer answer but this gets at the gist of the analysis that needs to occur to figure out who wins and the probability of that win. It is not a yes/no answer question.
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COL Strategic Plans Chief
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Well put, sir. I think we play down China's capabilities, both in diplomatic realms and in military realms. The chances of a significant Sino-Russian alliance of any meaningful kind is highly unlikely and if we thought the diplomatic treaties of 1918 were complicated, the complexity involved in the current global OE both with formal and informal agreements and relationships, puts those that started WWI to shame. I'll have to stop now, my SAMS twitch is starting. I'll start making citations and foot notes.
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LTC Paul Labrador
LTC Paul Labrador
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I still hesitate at a Sino-Russo alliance. They dislike each other as much if not more than they dislike us.
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SGT Richard H.
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Short & Simple. Nobody.
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SGT Richard H.
SGT Richard H.
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COL (Join to see) I think an all out (unrestricted) world war would ultimately turn nuclear, Sir. Despite nuclear reductions over the last few decades, I think there's still enough nuclear weaponry to assure mutual destruction to a fairly high degree. It'd be pretty hard to determine a winner in that.
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COL Strategic Plans Chief
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Distinct possibility. I've been thinking about a nice piece of property in North Dakota.
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SGT Richard H.
SGT Richard H.
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My nephew (Air Force Security) is going to be stationed there next, I think. Guess what he'll be guarding.
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MAJ Brigade Logistics Officer (S4)
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I'm going to have to go with SGT Richard H. on this one, sir. As soon as I saw the word "unrestricted" in your post, my thoughts turned to CBRN. If nobody holds back, then there's no world left to win. Everybody loses.
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Lt Col Instructor Navigator
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Fallout 3
The Brotherhood of Steel.
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COL Strategic Plans Chief
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I love how they always show the Knights and not the Scribes. No one ever puts that in the BoS recruiting posters.
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Lt Col Instructor Navigator
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Just like they always show the pilots, not the personnelists in the Air Force recruiting videos.
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MAJ Brigade Logistics Officer (S4)
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That's true, but it's also a shame, sir. Personally I'd much rather be a Scribe. Sure you get to blow things up as a Knight (and who doesn't enjoy that?), but as a Scribe you get to play with all the nifty pre-war tech, figure out how it works, how to keep it running, etc. Sorry, but being able to shoot a laser beam isn't nearly as cool as being able to build one.

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Wait, the Air Force has non-pilots??
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Who wins in unrestricted warfare between the United States and its allies and China and its allies?
SFC Intelligence Analyst   Atl
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I think we get rolled.

Just because there is such a larger pool of able-bodied people to pull from. Secondly, to win any war, a country needs the will of its people. Our country seems to have lost that somewhere a couple decades back. However, I also believe that because of our tech, the war would be a long and protracted one, with millions of casualties.

What do you think sir?
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COL Strategic Plans Chief
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I think we would be surprised by the capability of the Russians and the Chineese at first. They aren't as forthcoming with their technology advances as we are with the world. In the tactical arena, we have very little understanding of what they are capable of. Perhaps there are three letter agencies that have a good idea, but that information hasn't made it down to the level where it really matters. I think the US Navy assumes dominance at sea and still holds onto the primacy of the Aircraft Carrier, which isn't necessary when you can build an entire fleet of Corvettes for the cost of one Carrier...if those have the capability to launch 8 SSN-22 Sunburn supersonic, over the horizon, sea-skimming missiles...and you have a ton of them...the Carrier is now obsolete unless you have a large surface to surface fleet with the speed an maneuverability of that smaller built force. China's barely understood capability in cyber-war and anti-satelite capbility is troubling and could cripple some systems. The vastness of their force puts ours to shame. We saw what technology and precision did in WWII to the Germans. They built the best machines in the world...and they were overwhelmed by sheer numbers. Build a tank that costs 1/8th of the price and pump it out 10 times as fast and you are going to win the day as long as you have bodies to fill them...and China and Russia have that in spades. Give them a solid enemy to fight and they will rally. Can't say that for the USA right now. Once we take it in the shorts and the fight gets closer to home...Australia, Japan, Alaska, Hawaii, then there may be another rise in capability and shift of industry, but by that time, it may be too late. I think that...like normal...we lose the first 3 rounds of the fight. Then, America and its allies get their game together and pull it out in the end.
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MSG Signal Support Systems Specialist
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The only unrestricted warfare would be conducted by one side and not ours. We have developed so many scruples about how to fight that we'd be very effectively handicapped in such a fight with a near peer.
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LTC Paul Labrador
LTC Paul Labrador
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Well to be honest, there were more reasons why the Germans didn't do so hot even with uber-weapons. Yes, they had very expensive and complicated machines.....but Hitler was also an R&D maniac. He was never satisfied with what he had and continued to create newer and better machines (even as Germany was burning around his ears) instead of finding that ONE great machine (which he had plenty to choose from) and building the hell out of it. This totally screwed his logistical ability to support those weapon systems. Had he stopped his R&D process at the Tiger I and devoted all his energies in building more Tigers (vs wasting resources building Tiger IIs) he would have had MORE of those excellent tanks.
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LTC Paul Labrador
LTC Paul Labrador
11 y
I do agree that we have an over-reliance on technology for our advantage. I fear for us when China takes out our GPS systems and lose the ability to navigate and hit targets....
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COL Vincent Stoneking
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This question really gets down to two variables: Time and Distance.

Distance. I'm thinking here of physical lines of communication. Where is the theater? Who can better support that theater? Red Teaming it, I propose That the Allied Communist Emerging Dynasties (ACED) do not launch a serious invasion of the continental US, but focus their efforts on the American Synchophant and Suckups (ASSes - it's more fun when your side makes the acronyms) located in Europe and Asia. This allows ACED to primarily sustain via ground assets (which can self-deploy!) and air assets overland (and out of strike range of ASS naval aviation assets). Secondary sustainment is via short-range naval assets (already home ported in the area). An area of special emphasis would be US bases and allies from Japan to India - depriving the US of local basing.

A decidedly secondary effort is attacks against CONUS. These attacks need only be actual and credible, not effective of sustainable. The intended target is the cognitive domain of the US population, so that it will demand a "Fortress America" due to risk aversion, thus giving ACED greater freedom of maneuver throughout Europe, Asia, and bits of Africa.

Under this scenario, every gain of territory by ACED places the US and ASSed at a greater strategic disadvantage.

Time. This is a tricky one. History has shown three things: 1. America is NEVER prepared for a war and it takes a few years to ramp up. 2. Once America HAS ramped up, its production is absurdly high. 3. The American public seems to have about a 3 year spine. As the ACED CCOS, I am betting that if I can keep American forces out of theater long enough to make significant gains, consolidate them, and impose a strategically favorable peace before US industrial might can be brought to bear. I am also betting that the US is not currently capable of fighting a major theater war against a peer opponent, and won't be for a year or two, reinforcing the impulse for a Fortress America. By the time the US is ready to swing into action, I have major gains, have imposed a peace, and can now politely starve the US of resources and staging areas to cement the wartime gains. If I can keep the US out of the theater in force for 3 years, I win.

I also keep mentioning that I hope the US minds its own business, and that it is indeed fearsome, and I would truly regret having to use nukes in the face of US imperialism.

Were I Blue team, I would argue technology overmatch, global reach, superior training, global public opinion, and power of international institutions and alliances. As the Red Team leader, I call BS.

(I think Red Team has this one.)
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LTC Paul Labrador
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If we are talking unrestricted warfare, we ALL lose as that will likely mean nukes are authorized and WILL be used.
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Lt Col Aerospace Planner
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Agreed. Even in a conventional only war it wont be like storming Bagdad.
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CW2 Joseph Evans
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We'll run out of bullets before they run out of people...
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SP5 Richard Maze
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Nobody.
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COL Strategic Plans Chief
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Distinctly possible if you are running the numbers purely with data. I'd be interested to see if that actually works out though. The problem would not be running out of bullets, but running out of people and systems. Our ability to go through an attrition style war with China is...lacking.
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MAJ Robert (Bob) Petrarca
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If that Fat F--k in North Korea had any brains he'd stay out of it, let us duke it out and take over the remnants of what's left.
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Lt Col Aerospace Planner
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All China has to do is cash in our debt and our dollar becomes worth less than a cent. That being said as soon as economy collapses than so will Europe's then we come crashing down on them. We are China's biggest customer. War would be bad for customer relations.
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LTC Paul Labrador
LTC Paul Labrador
11 y
Any economic blow to us will also affect China nearly as badly.
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Lt Col Aerospace Planner
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I pretty much agree. They really on us to buy their $200 42 inch flat screens, dell laptops, cell phones and every other gadget in our house. Which in reality we probably are both at a stalemate on the chess board in all practicality.
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LTC Immigration Judge
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The minute China's US debt becomes worthless, China's economy collapses.

THAT is why there will never be a shooting war between China and the USA. Our economies are too interlinked and neither country can function without the economy of the other.
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Lt Col Aerospace Planner
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LTC (Join to see) - Hence why we are in a stalemate as I noted above.
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SPC David S.
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If we could cut off their supply to oil and we might have a chance. However I have a feeling that Russia and China would come storming in from the North to take the Arabian peninsula first then move on Europe. Israel's crazy ass would start duke nuking everyone and then all hell will break loose. However a resilient band of battle hardened cav troopers will draw upon their sabers and engage in a fierce melee and liberty will prevail.
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COL Vincent Stoneking
COL Vincent Stoneking
11 y
Keep in mind Russia's proven (and productive reserves).
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CPT Ahmed Faried
CPT Ahmed Faried
11 y
@ SPC David Stephenson, right next to the Queen of Battle.

COL Vincent Stoneking Russia is formidable when they face non near-peer rivals like Georgia and Chechnya but conventionally I think we outclass them. It is the reason why Russia doesn't have a no first use policy. They know that in a conventional war against the US or other near-peer nations they will lose.
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SPC David S.
SPC David S.
11 y
Yes Russia dropped their NFU back in 2000, as NATO out guns Russia now. However according to our own Nuclear Posture Review the US reserves the right to use nukes. I have a feeling such engagement would result in a Pinnacle incident even though China has a NFU due to China believing it is much weaker than the United States, they are more likely to launch a massive preemptive strike in a crisis. With the current US concept for high-tech warfare, known as Air-Sea Battle, this might quickly escalate towards a “limited” nuclear war with China taking out bases in Japan and Korea and anything else within 1,200 miles of China's coastline. However I still believe who controls the oil wins the war - Battle of the Bulge
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