China’s strategic future may also run through Ukraine

A policy debate is unfolding in Washington DC. A debate that is framed as a choice between supporting the war in Ukraine versus deterring and/or denying the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in any action it may take against Taiwan.

On the one hand, there’s no doubt the United States’ support to Ukraine has significantly depleted US stockpiles and other war reserves. On the other hand, there is equally no doubt China is the pacing actor for US national security. China is not only building its military to challenge the United States but also has the second largest economy in the world. In fact, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, China’s gross domestic product is poised to surpass that of the United States by 2035. We have never faced this kind of strategic challenge – even during the Cold War with Soviet Union.

This Washington debate suggests that our strategic competitors – Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin – make similar distinctions in their strategic objectives.

Well…they do not.

But don’t take my word for it. We will settle this debate through the actions that Xi and Putin are poised to jointly execute in Ukraine.

In the last couple of weeks, we have learned the Biden Administration is contemplating the release of intelligence that shows China may provide direct lethal aid to Russia in its war in Ukraine. According to an NBC News report, the lethal aid under consideration includes ammunition and artillery.

This comes as, just one-year ago, Xi and Putin entered a long-term, strategic alliance – declaring in the 5,000-word agreement “a new era in global order” and describing the two countries’ friendship as “having no limits.” Putin lauded the broad, strategic partnership with China as “unprecedented.” Xi said their joint strategy would have a “far-reaching influence on China, Russia, and the world.”

This alliance between China and Russia suggests that Xi and Putin do not adhere to distinctions in their strategic relationship.

So, why should we?

Through this strategic agreement, Xi and Putin – the world’s leading autocrats – are positioned to not only challenge the global security paradigm but also the existing political order. Robert Daly, Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center provided an even more ominous warning: “This is a pledge to stand shoulder to shoulder against America and the West, ideologically as well as militarily…This statement might be looked back on as the beginning of Cold War Two.”

Regardless of whether we frame this new, joint challenge from China and Russia as a “new Cold War” or “great power competition” or “strategic competition,” these are just Washington DC words for a challenge that is global, risking fundamental change to the world order, and existential in nature for the United States and the West.

The war in Ukraine should be understood through this macro prism.

Indeed, through China’s potential lethal support to Russia in Ukraine, one could surmise the CCP sees its strategic future, in part, through Ukraine – by becoming the arbiter of how the Ukrainian battlefield is ultimately shaped for any future negotiations and serving as the guarantor of any negotiated outcome.

In fact, the CCP has put forward a plan for ending the war in Ukraine. And while “President Biden and other top US officials have said China’s proposal is ‘one-sided and only benefits Russia,’ President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has said that China’s engagement on a potential peace plan ‘is not bad.’”

Outcomes in Ukraine shaped and underwritten by China would most certainly be at the expense of the United States and NATO.

We must understand that Ukraine and Taiwan are, strategically speaking, interconnected challenges because the instigators of the conflict in Ukraine – Russia and increasingly China – may well be allied in any future conflict in Taiwan.

This is because the way in which China and Russia see the world is through the prism of doing everything it takes to degrade US power and supplant it as a global leader.

Therefore, for US policy, it should not be one or the other when it comes to China and Russia.

It must be both.

Alex Gallo is the author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society. Alex also serves as the Executive Director of the Common Mission Project, a 501c3, that delivers an innovation and entrepreneurship program, Hacking for Defense®, which brings together the government, universities, and the private sector to solve the strategic challenges. He is also a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute, an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and a US Army Veteran. Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloCMP.