Little Rock AFB, AR
Little Rock AFB, AR
4
4
0
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 061731
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the
center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move
inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and
northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on
the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves
inland late Sunday and Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late
tonight or Sunday morning.
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12
inches. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the
central Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on
smaller streams across the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the
Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, bringing isolated storm
totals to 25 inches. This will continue the threat of
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur on Sunday across southern
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle.
SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
*******************************************
This is an excellent feature to depict movement
and intensity. Below:
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL [login to see] UTC SAT JUN 06 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS BEEN REPLACED
WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
FLORIDA LINE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 90.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 180SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 345SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 90.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 90.1W
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.4N 90.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.3N 90.7W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.0N 92.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 90.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
*******************************************
000
WTNT43 KNHC 061448
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL [login to see] AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
Cristobal's satellite presentation continues to lack the appearance
of a classic tropical cyclone, with a large curved band over the
northern semicircle and little deep convection near the center.
The latest flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations
from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support a current
intensity of 45 kt. Based on the poorly-organized state of
the system, some dry air entrainment, and interaction with an
upper-level low, only some slow strengthening is forecast, as in
the previous advisories. The NHC intensity forecast remains in
good agreement with the model consensus.
The storm is moving northward at a slightly slower 10 kt. There
has not been much change in the track forecast or forecast
reasoning. Cristobal should continue northward through a weakness
in the subtropical ridge until tomorrow evening, bringing the
center to the northern Gulf coast in about 36 hours. Later, a turn
to the north-northwest, and then back to the north is forecast as
the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge and a trough approaching
the central United States. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical system
should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of the trough
and move into Canada.
Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it
makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the
exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and
rainfall will extend well to the east of the center.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm
surge remains possible in other portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.
2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the
northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well
in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center.
3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today,
spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf
Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday.
This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams,
especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf
Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley.
4. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Additional rainfall from Cristobal will
continue to slowly subside, however life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides will still be possible through today. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 24.2N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 29.3N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 08/1200Z 31.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 38.0N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW
********************************************
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 9 13(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 6( 7) 44(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
STENNIS MS 34 1 8( 9) 49(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BURAS LA 34 2 33(35) 41(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 39 39(78) 6(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 13(14) 54(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 26 44(70) 9(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 4( 4) 48(52) 7(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 11(12) 50(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 39(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 7(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
CAMERON LA 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GALVESTON TX 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MATAGORDA TX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA NAS 34 3 9(12) 16(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
KEESLER AB 34 3 14(17) 37(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
*************************************************
000
WTNT83 KNHC 061734
TCVAT3
CRISTOBAL WATCH/WARNING INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2020
.TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.
*****************************************
Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572 [login to see] 15-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 70 kt and
seas 15 to 20 ft with occaisonal higher seas in excess of 25
ft.
* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Saturday
evening until early Monday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.
*************************************************
Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572 [login to see] 15-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 70 kt and
seas 15 to 20 ft with occaisonal higher seas in excess of 25
ft.
* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Saturday
evening until early Monday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.
**************************************
Marine Zone Forecast
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
Synopsis: Onshore flow to be maintained into late Wednesday as Tropical Storm Cristobal, located over the central Gulf of Mexico this evening, is moving northward towards the north-central gulf coast. Please refer to the latest NHC advisory for the latest on Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Today
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight
tropical storm conditions expected. East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 30 to 35 knots with gusts to near 50 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night.
Sunday
tropical storm conditions expected. East winds 35 to 45 knots with gusts to near 60 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet with occasional waves to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Showers in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 40 to 50 knots with gusts to near 70 knots becoming south 30 to 40 knots with gusts to near 55 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet with occasional waves to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and chance of thunderstorms.
Monday
tropical storm conditions possible. South winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts to near 50 knots easing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet with occasional waves to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Monday Night
South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday
South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday
Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
********************************************
Current conditions at
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport (KNEW)
Lat: 30.05°NLon: 90.03°WElev: 7ft.
A Few Clouds
83°F
28°C
Humidity 74%
Wind Speed NE 16 mph
Barometer 29.88 in (1011.3 mb)
Dewpoint 74°F (23°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 90°F (32°C)
Last update 6 Jun 11:53 am CD
This Afternoon
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight
Tropical storm conditions possible. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 10pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
Tropical storm conditions expected. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 84. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 91. West wind around 5 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 89. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
*************************************************
000
WTNT33 KNHC 061731
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the
center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move
inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and
northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on
the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves
inland late Sunday and Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late
tonight or Sunday morning.
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12
inches. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the
central Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on
smaller streams across the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the
Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, bringing isolated storm
totals to 25 inches. This will continue the threat of
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur on Sunday across southern
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle.
SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
*******************************************
This is an excellent feature to depict movement
and intensity. Below:
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL [login to see] UTC SAT JUN 06 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS BEEN REPLACED
WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
FLORIDA LINE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 90.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 180SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 345SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 90.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 90.1W
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.4N 90.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.3N 90.7W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.0N 92.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 90.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
*******************************************
000
WTNT43 KNHC 061448
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL [login to see] AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
Cristobal's satellite presentation continues to lack the appearance
of a classic tropical cyclone, with a large curved band over the
northern semicircle and little deep convection near the center.
The latest flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations
from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support a current
intensity of 45 kt. Based on the poorly-organized state of
the system, some dry air entrainment, and interaction with an
upper-level low, only some slow strengthening is forecast, as in
the previous advisories. The NHC intensity forecast remains in
good agreement with the model consensus.
The storm is moving northward at a slightly slower 10 kt. There
has not been much change in the track forecast or forecast
reasoning. Cristobal should continue northward through a weakness
in the subtropical ridge until tomorrow evening, bringing the
center to the northern Gulf coast in about 36 hours. Later, a turn
to the north-northwest, and then back to the north is forecast as
the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge and a trough approaching
the central United States. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical system
should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of the trough
and move into Canada.
Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it
makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the
exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and
rainfall will extend well to the east of the center.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm
surge remains possible in other portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.
2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the
northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well
in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center.
3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today,
spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf
Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday.
This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams,
especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf
Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley.
4. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Additional rainfall from Cristobal will
continue to slowly subside, however life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides will still be possible through today. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 24.2N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 29.3N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 08/1200Z 31.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 38.0N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW
********************************************
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 9 13(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 6( 7) 44(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
STENNIS MS 34 1 8( 9) 49(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BURAS LA 34 2 33(35) 41(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 39 39(78) 6(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 13(14) 54(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 26 44(70) 9(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 4( 4) 48(52) 7(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 11(12) 50(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 39(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 7(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
CAMERON LA 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GALVESTON TX 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MATAGORDA TX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA NAS 34 3 9(12) 16(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
KEESLER AB 34 3 14(17) 37(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
*************************************************
000
WTNT83 KNHC 061734
TCVAT3
CRISTOBAL WATCH/WARNING INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2020
.TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.
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Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572 [login to see] 15-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 70 kt and
seas 15 to 20 ft with occaisonal higher seas in excess of 25
ft.
* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Saturday
evening until early Monday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.
*************************************************
Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572 [login to see] 15-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 70 kt and
seas 15 to 20 ft with occaisonal higher seas in excess of 25
ft.
* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Saturday
evening until early Monday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.
**************************************
Marine Zone Forecast
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
Synopsis: Onshore flow to be maintained into late Wednesday as Tropical Storm Cristobal, located over the central Gulf of Mexico this evening, is moving northward towards the north-central gulf coast. Please refer to the latest NHC advisory for the latest on Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Today
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight
tropical storm conditions expected. East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 30 to 35 knots with gusts to near 50 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night.
Sunday
tropical storm conditions expected. East winds 35 to 45 knots with gusts to near 60 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet with occasional waves to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Showers in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 40 to 50 knots with gusts to near 70 knots becoming south 30 to 40 knots with gusts to near 55 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet with occasional waves to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and chance of thunderstorms.
Monday
tropical storm conditions possible. South winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts to near 50 knots easing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet with occasional waves to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Monday Night
South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday
South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday
Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
********************************************
Current conditions at
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport (KNEW)
Lat: 30.05°NLon: 90.03°WElev: 7ft.
A Few Clouds
83°F
28°C
Humidity 74%
Wind Speed NE 16 mph
Barometer 29.88 in (1011.3 mb)
Dewpoint 74°F (23°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 90°F (32°C)
Last update 6 Jun 11:53 am CD
This Afternoon
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight
Tropical storm conditions possible. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 10pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
Tropical storm conditions expected. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 84. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 91. West wind around 5 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 89. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
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NWS Southern Region Tropical Webpage
Posted from weather.gov
New Orleans
Lake Charles
Little Rock AFB
Blytheville
Memphis
Posted 4 y ago
Responses: 2
4
4
0
SSgt (Join to see)
PO1 H Gene Lawrence My pleasure, it is fun and actually did forecasts on the radio and one station Q-105 WRBQ, was the hotbed of many Tropical systems.
(2)
(0)
SPC Margaret Higgins
SSgt (Join to see) - Thank you; beyond compare; Forecaster Larry; for the weather report.
(1)
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