Posted on Aug 11, 2020
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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ANOTHER WARM, ER HOT DAY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION
WITH MOST OF AZ AND PARTS OF CA AND NV BEING ESPECIALLY
HOT 100-110 BEING COMMON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
EXCEPT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE COUNTRY.
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data from earlier in the day
have shown that the area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring
over the tropical Atlantic has developed a less-elongated
circulation with a well-defined center. For the most part, deep
convection has persisted with the system since about this time
yesterday, save a brief period of warming cloud tops this morning.
The low now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven with
30-kt winds, in line with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving westward, or 280/14 kt, to the south of a
large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic.
This pattern is expected to evolve rather quickly, with a break
developing in the ridge over the central Atlantic by 48 hours.
This change should allow the depression to begin making more
poleward progress, moving west-northwestward from 36 hours until
the end of the forecast period. The track models are in good
agreement on this scenario, as well as the system's forward speed,
and bring the center of the cyclone near or just to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands in 4-5 days. This first NHC forecast
lies just to the north of the multi-model consensus cluster
through day 3, out of respect for the northern-lying ECMWF model,
and then is close to HCCA on days 4 and 5.

Conventional satellite imagery and Saharan Air Layer analyses
suggest that the center of the depression is being shielded from
much drier air to its north and west. However, as has been the
case for a few days, at least 15 kt of easterly shear has been
pushing deep convection to the western side of the circulation.
This shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two, which
should allow for gradual strengthening to begin by 36 hours, and a
peak in the cyclone's intensity should occur in about 3 days. For
this period, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above HCCA and
the IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, westerly or
southwesterly shear is forecast to develop and increase to 20-30 kt
by days 4 and 5, which is likely to induce significant weakening.
In fact, it's notable that the conditions become hostile enough that
the global models are showing the system opening up into a trough
near the northern Leeward Islands by day 5, which is a plausible
alternate scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 11.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS STRENGTH AND DIRECTION
WILL INVARIABLY CHANGE AND NEVER TAKE YOUR
EYES OFF A TIGER.

_____________________________________________________________

Las Vegas, North Las Vegas Airport (KVGT)
Lat: 36.21205°NLon: 115.19395°WElev: 2188ft.

Clear

105°F

41°C
Humidity 3%
Wind Speed SSW 16 MPH
Barometer 29.8 in (1009.14 mb)
Dewpoint 12°F (-11°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 98°F (37°C)
Last update 11 Aug 04:53 PM PDT


Detailed Forecast
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 74. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 105. North wind 6 to 15 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 79. Southwest wind 5 to 13 mph.
Thursday
A slight chance of sprinkles. Partly sunny, with a high near 102. Southwest wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.
Friday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 107.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 81.
Saturday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 109.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 83.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 111.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 84.
Monday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 110.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 83.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 108.

_____________________________________________________


Excessive Heat Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1214 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

AZZ002-003-036-CAZ522>527-NVZ016-017-020>022-121200-
/O.NEW.KVEF.EH.A.0007.200814T1800Z-200818T0400Z/
Lake Havasu and Fort Mohave-Northwest Deserts-
Lake Mead National Recreation Area-Death Valley National Park-
Western Mojave Desert-Eastern Mojave Desert-Morongo Basin-
Cadiz Basin-San Bernardino County-Upper Colorado River Valley-
Northeast Clark County-Western Clark and Southern Nye County-
Las Vegas Valley-Southern Clark County-
Including Lake Havasu City, Desert Hills, Topock, Kingman,
Golden Valley, Dolan Springs, Valentine, Wikieup, Yucca,
Bullhead City, Oatman, Mohave Valley, Furnace Creek,
Stovepipe Wells, Shoshone, Barstow, Daggett, Fort Irwin, Baker,
Mountain Pass, Mitchell Caverns, Morongo Valley, Yucca Valley,
Twentynine Palms, Vidal Junction, Needles, Mesquite, Overton,
Moapa, Pahrump, Indian Springs, Desert Rock, Amargosa Valley,
Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson, Boulder City, Hoover Dam,
Laughlin, Primm, Searchlight, and Cal-Nev-Ari
1214 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 /1214 PM MST Tue Aug 11 2020/

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures of 110 to
120 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Arizona, southeast California
and southern Nevada.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat will significantly increase the
potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those
working or participating in outdoor activities.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Be prepared to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-
conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives
and neighbors.

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during
warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal
temperatures in a matter of minutes.

&&


KIND OF CRAZY LATELY WITH AN UPTICK OF EARTHQUAKES, WILD
FIRES AND STIFLING HEAT AND NOW, ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM.

METEOLOGIST LARRY OLSON TUESDAY AUGUST 12TH 2020 2030 ARIZONA AUG 9TH
Casa Grande M. Air, AZ. CLEAR 7 KCGZ CLIMO 08-10 109/79 109/79 109/76 108 52 16% WINDS WESTERLY 7MPH GUSTING 16MPH 29.83 XXXXX
Death Valley, AZ. CLEAR 7 DEATH CLIMO 08-10 112/90 116/85 120/87 115 37 7% WINDS SOUTHERLY 6MPH GUSTING 10MPH XXXXX XXXXX
Las Vegas Intl Air, NV. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 KLAS CLIMO 08-10 103/78 103/78 104/79 106 19 4% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 20MPH GUSTING 33MPH 29.83 XXXXX
Chandler Muni Air, AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 KCHD CLIMO 08-10 109/82 109/81 109/82 108 51 15% WINDS CALM CALM GUSTING XXXXX 29.78 XXXXX
Davis Monthan AFB,AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 KDMA CLIMO 08-10 105/78 106/77 105/77 104 54 19% WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 7MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.89 XXXXX
Deer Valley Airport, AZ. CLEAR 7 KDVT CLIMO 08-10 106/79 108/77 108/80 106 54 18% WINDS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 7MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.80 XXXXX
Gila Bend Aux Field, AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 GILA CLIMO 08-10 111/79 111/78 111/72 109 58 18% WINDS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 21MPH 29.73 XXXXX
Glendale Airport, AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 KGEU CLIMO 08-10 109/84 111/80 111/84 111 35 7% WINDS SOUTHERLY 9MPH GUSTING 21MPH 29.81 XXXXX
Goodyear Muni Air, AZ. FAIR 7 KGYR CLIMO 08-10 109/81 111/83 111/81 108 58 20% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 9MPH GUSTING 16MPH 29.77 XXXXX
Bullhead City Air, AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 KIFP CLIMO 08-10 109/81 109/82 111/84 111 42 10% WINDS SOUTHERLY 20MPH GUSTING 30MPH 29.71 XXXXX
Kingman Airport, AZ. CLEAR 7 KIGM CLIMO 08-10 100/66 102/86 101/71 100 42 13% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 22MPH GUSTING 32MPH 29.98 XXXXX
Luke Air Force Base,AZ. CLEAR 7 KLUF CLIMO 08-10 109/80 111/78 111/82 108 53 16% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.75 XXXXX
Yuma Marine Base, AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 YUMA CLIMO 08-10 108/77 109/77 111/78 109 60 20% WINDS SOUTHERLY 10MPH GUSTING 18MPH 29.71 XXXXX
Nogales Intl Airport,AZ. OVERCAST 6 FOG RAIN ENDED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH FOG HIGH TEMP BEFORE RAIN WAS 98 KOLS CLIMO 08-10 99/66 101/67 100/68 81 63 54% WINDS SOUTHERLY 13MPH GUSTING 20MPH 30.05 XXXXX
Page Muni Airport, AZ. CLEAR 7 KPGA CLIMO 08-10 99/68 99/72 100/71 97 31 10% WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX 30.05 0.30 IN
Phoenix Intl Air, AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 KPHX CLIMO 08-10 110/89 110/87 111/81 109 54 16% WINDS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 14MPH GUSTING 18MPH 29.76 XXXXX
Prescott Love Field, AZ. FAIR 7 KPRC CLIMO 08-10 91/61 92/59 92/61 91 41 18% WINDS WESTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 22MPH 30.12 XXXXX
Safford Muni. Air. AZ. CLEAR 7 KSAD CLIMO 08-10 103/76 105/73 108/72 103 41 12% WINDS XXXXX 7MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.88 XXXXX
Scottsdale Airport, AZ. CLEAR 7 KSDL CLIMO 08-10 110/89 109/83 111/85 108 52 16% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.81 XXXXX
Tucson Intl Airport, AZ. CLEAR 7 KTUS CLIMO 08-10 105/78 106/77 107/77 104 47 15% WINDS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 12MPH GUSTING 18MPH 29.90 XXXXX
Buckeye Muni Air, AZ. CLEAR 7 KBKX CLIMO 08-10 109/77 109/75 111/73 109 54 17% WINDS CALM CALM GUSTING XXXXX 29.76 XXXXX

NEVADA
Tonopah Airport74, NV. CLEAR 7 KPTH CLIMO 08-10 89/53 93/57 111/73 91 16 6% WINDS SOUTHERLY 13MPH GUSTING 24MPH 30.04 XXXXX
Mercury/Desert AIR,NV CLEAR 7 KDRA CLIMO 08-10 96/64 100/63 100/64 101 14 4% WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 17MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.86 XXXXX
Elko Regnl Airport, NV. CLEAR 7 KEKO CLIMO 08-10 94/54 94/54 95/52 89 32 13% WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX 30.02 XXXXX
Elko Airport, NV. CLEAR 7 KELY CLIMO 08-10 87/43 90/45 89/46 89 22 8% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 12MPH GUSTING 20MPH 30.08 XXXXX
Henderson Exe. Air, NV. XXXXX KHND CLIMO 08-10 105/72 106/76 107/78 107 27 6% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 7MPH GUSTING 21MPH 29.84 XXXXX
Nellis Air Force Base, NV CLEAR 7 KINS CLIMO 08-10 102/73 104/75 104/78 106 26 6% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 21MPH GUSTING 24MPH 29.77 XXXXX
Las Vegas Aux. Air, NV. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 KLAS CLIMO 08-10 102/77 103/77 104/79 105 30 7% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 20MPH GUSTING 33MPH 29.83 XXXXX
Lovelock Field Air, NV. CLEAR 7 KLOL CLIMO 08-10 96/68 99/57 99/73 96 36 12% WINDS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 31MPH GUSTING 53MPH 29.94 XXXXX
Nellis Air Force Base, NV CLEAR 7 KLSV CLIMO 08-10 102/73 99/57 104/74 106 31 7% WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 20MPH GUSTING 36MPH 29.78 XXXXX
Fallon(Agrimet) Air, NV. CLEAR 7 HIGH EARLIER AT 91 SEVERAL DIFFERENT TIMES And HIGH WIND - 33MPH @ 1530 KNFL CLIMO 08-10 93/57 95/68 111/78 82 37 20% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 29MPH XXXXX XXXXX
Eureka Airport, CA. FAIR 7 EUREK CLIMO 08-10 68/50 66/51 62/52 61 XXXXX XXXXX WINDS WESTERLY 7MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.97 XXXXX
Reno Tahoe Airport, NV. XXXXX KRNO CLIMO 08-10 94/63 95/63 94/61 86 42 21% WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 6MPH GUSTING 9MPH XXXXX XXXXX
Tonopah Airport, NV. XXXXX KPTH CLIMO 08-10 109/79 102/77 111/73 109 56 18% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 7MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.76 XXXXX
N. Las Vegas Airport,NV CLEAR 7 KVGT CLIMO 08-10 103/75 105/77 105/77 107 14 3% WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 20MPH GUSTING 26MPH 29.81 XXXXX
Winnemuca Muni Air CA CLEAR 7 THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND SQUALLS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS KWMC CLIMO 08-10 97/52 97/54 96/59 93 31 11% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 38MPH 29.94 XXXXX

SP5 Mark Kuzinski COL Mikel J. Burroughs @PO2 (Join to see)
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CW5 Jack Cardwell
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Thanks for the weather update!
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SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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Thanks Larry.
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SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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SCPO Morris Ramsey
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Thank you for this weather report. It is good to see there are places hotter than the mid-south. We are now receiving “Showers of Blessings”
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