Not so Quiet on the Western Front: The Snowball Effect in Afghanistan | Small Wars Journal

"From a political perspective, the calculus of power in the region may ultimately rest with Iran. The country’s ongoing frustrations over water rights with Afghanistan could factor into its policy decisions. Iran’s material support to the Taliban is more than an open secret in Afghanistan – it strengthens the Taliban at a time when the Afghan government is desperately trying to bring the insurgent group into the fold. The cooperation is a calculated attempt at maintaining control in an area of strategic importance to Iran. A water agreement signed in 1973 stipulates water-sharing rights between the two countries, but Afghanistan’s recent economic development projects include the establishment of a dam that will cauterize the water flow into the Hamouné Helmand. Iran has stood vehemently against such plans, but the Afghan government insists that Iran’s water shortage is due to Iran’s own failure to effectively manage their resources. The finger-pointing is consequential, as the lack of a resolution threatens both economic development in Afghanistan and regional cooperation – the two key pillars upon which Afghanistan’s national security strategy is based.



Iran’s incongruous alliance with the Taliban also portends an uneasy future for the much-anticipated Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (TAPI) pipeline. When the project finally broke ground last February, the Taliban vowed to protect the infrastructure, a move that is not surprising if one recognizes that the Taliban believe they will inherit the 1,130-mile pipeline and its $400-million projected revenue. The pipeline runs through Farah and is considered a key asset for the Afghan government. Its significance renders it all the more susceptible to being hijacked by competing interests. If Iran can influence the Taliban in Farah, it controls, at least tangentially, a lifeline of the Afghan government. "