The Sinai Insurgency: The Next ISIS Crisis? | Small Wars Journal

SPC David S. I concur the black flag more or less is already obsolete ISIS has already evolved into something more akeen to an aggressive form of an Al Qaeda insurgency the some of the root causes link to The House of Saud ideology who have very aggressive conservative view of Islam with support of ideas like Shariah Law these views would create extremists like Bin Laden.

One should not be surprised by the Middle East - authoritarian rulers (families), many supported by the US mixed with the lack of human rights and a large dose of income inequality - divide and conquer to protect their power and wealth seems to be the game many are playing including US to protect our "strategic" interests. Part of the deep dive will require us to look inward as well - seems we are both part of the cure and part of the disease.

SPC David S. that's why I think Saudi Arabia is trying to liberalize a little bit because they see the United states pulling up stakes in the region because as they years pass by we are becoming less dependent on middle eastern oil and are even looking to become an exporter ourselves of oil. I think the Saudis are trying to keep us in the market as long as they can do that's why the prince is trying to become a more agreeable ally. I'm not saying things are overall getting better it's just to early to tell women are being allowed to drive and walk unaccompanied hopefully these changes will be lasting.

I might partly disagree with you on that one... banditry has been there forever.. organized banditry for just as long... but it was a militarized area for decades until the 1990s. The Brotherhood really did not focus on the area... even AQ had a time to get organized there. IS was able to pull together more of the players and actually craft something after the military overthrow of the Brotherhood government in Egypt.... then it became an insurgency... downing of Russian plane and all.

I can see that maybe it was Bandits otherwise they would probably have an armored personnel carrier following the bus and there would have been soldiers inside not policeman. I wasn't trying to be disrespectful. But you are right, when police departments are getting overrun and the armies being called out, it wasn't just a small group of Bandits but an organized terrorist militia taking over the Sinai.

LTC Stephen Conway - How the organized banditry and smugglers transformed into something very different is all part of the long story... and question might be that since we are in the Sinai as Peacekeepers.... how much of it did we see and shrug off as someone else's problem since we are just there to make sure Egypt and Israel do not fight... Shrug off -- until the day it began to effect the mission.. but in the time before that moment is when we should have seen it.

LTC Eric Udouj especially because the nightmare that we face currently is the drug combining with GWOT u know certain cartels have already collaborated with insurgencies but my fear is that they will have a more formal relationship beyond the occasional collaboration.

LTC Eric Udouj I meant to say the war on drugs combining with the war on terror that is my biggest fear.

PFC (Join to see) - It is a means of finance - and a system of smuggling and a business where money talks more than nationalism or other areas... and how well drugs and insurgency blend is always going to be be a concern...

LTC Eric Udouj my big concern is that the drug cartels of Guatemala to Mexico star openly assisting jihadists groups like formal alliance especially given their resources is not good might as well have a free round trip ticket to anywhere in north America.