Posted on May 6, 2021
The West’s departure from Afghanistan is a gamble
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Posted 3 y ago
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We haven't "Won" in 20 years. Is staying going to increase our chance of "winning"?
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SFC Casey O'Mally
Top,
It is impossible to win a game which has no rules for when it ends, or how score is kept.
We have NEVER had a clearly identified and expressed end state or strategic goal. We have never had a clear idea of what "winning" looks like. We still don't. In that scenario, it is impossible to declare victory. (Of course, it is also impossible to declare defeat - which in my jaded opinion is why we have not had decisive end states.)
It is impossible to win a game which has no rules for when it ends, or how score is kept.
We have NEVER had a clearly identified and expressed end state or strategic goal. We have never had a clear idea of what "winning" looks like. We still don't. In that scenario, it is impossible to declare victory. (Of course, it is also impossible to declare defeat - which in my jaded opinion is why we have not had decisive end states.)
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Need to know when to hold them and when to fold them if you're a gambler. We're way past time to fold them. Our presence may have stopped turmoil for a decade or so but when your history is centuries of turmoil there's no reason to not believe things will return to what was their normal. Unfortunately that's not what the West would like to see.
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There is no if about the civil war. It will happen as two ideologies will collide. Sharia Law vs Democracy.
"As US troops go home, the withdrawal may also further strengthen the prevailing argument that foreign interventions are always doomed to failure." This is false. I see Iraq as a win because Iraq can defend its democracy.
Aghanistan must have people who are passionate about democracy, a military that knows how to fight, and a government that is seen as rational and legitimate. They must have those 3 pillars to fight the Taliban succesfully.
The military problem for the Taliban is it is much smaller than the Afghan military. The military problem for the Afghanistan military is it can't go to rural areas controlled by the Taliban to find and kill them. Their will be an equilibrium in the civil war, how it changes I don't know. I think the Taliban will increase its asymmetric attacks and indulge in larger ground operations.
"As US troops go home, the withdrawal may also further strengthen the prevailing argument that foreign interventions are always doomed to failure." This is false. I see Iraq as a win because Iraq can defend its democracy.
Aghanistan must have people who are passionate about democracy, a military that knows how to fight, and a government that is seen as rational and legitimate. They must have those 3 pillars to fight the Taliban succesfully.
The military problem for the Taliban is it is much smaller than the Afghan military. The military problem for the Afghanistan military is it can't go to rural areas controlled by the Taliban to find and kill them. Their will be an equilibrium in the civil war, how it changes I don't know. I think the Taliban will increase its asymmetric attacks and indulge in larger ground operations.
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MAJ Ken Landgren
I agree with you. We won the Revolutionary War due to our ideology of freedom, passion of Americans, and military acumen. Americans supported Washington. SFC Casey O'Mally
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SFC (Join to see)
SFC Casey O'Mally Before the Taliban they weren't a "backwards" country. They are how they are now because of the Taliban. Also they're much more tribal but that's more the rural areas.
If the Afghan people want peace they need to fight for it.
https://allthatsinteresting.com/1960s-afghanistan
If the Afghan people want peace they need to fight for it.
https://allthatsinteresting.com/1960s-afghanistan
46 Fascinating Photos Of 1960s Afghanistan Before The Taliban
1960s Afghanistan presents a stark contrast to the war-torn region we recognize today. Take a peek at the way Afghanistan was — and how it can be again.
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SFC Casey O'Mally
SFC (Join to see) - I am sorry that I wasn't clear in my post. I was attempting sarcasm (and evidently failed). I do not believe they are a backward country in the middle of nowhere, I was mocking the folks who *do* think that we must tell them what is best for them because we *obviously* know better.
I am trying to say that we need to let the Afghan people decide what is right for them - instead of us telling them. We screwed them over in the 80s when we started funding the Mujahedin to fight Russia. And we haven't stopped since then.
I am trying to say that we need to let the Afghan people decide what is right for them - instead of us telling them. We screwed them over in the 80s when we started funding the Mujahedin to fight Russia. And we haven't stopped since then.
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MAJ Ken Landgren
I agree. Eventually the Afghan people will play a role in their future. SFC Casey O'Mally
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