Afghan Aftermath: Will Pacific States See Weakened US? - Breaking Defense

“The world has witnessed how the US evacuated its diplomats by helicopter while Taliban soldiers crowded into the presidential palace in Kabul,” the official and hawkish Chinese English-language Global Times editorial page wrote within hours of the Taliban taking the capital. “This has dealt a heavy blow to the credibility and reliability of the US.”

But is it that obvious? More importantly, is it true? And how will America’s allies, partners and adversaries judge the strategic implications?

A trio of Indo-Pacific analysts told Breaking Defense that any discussion of Chinese messaging needs to acknowledge the Chinese are fast and brilliant at shaping a clear and intriguing message. It’s no surprise the Global Times editorial went up in less than 24 hours after the Taliban entered Kabul.

“I think this is just exploiting weaknesses, and is classic propaganda,” Sarang Shidore, an expert on South Asia and the Pacific who is a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, a DC-based think tank, said.

“I’d put this down to psychological warfare (one of China’s three types of warfare)” Meia Nouwens, an expert on the Chinese military at the Institute of International Strategy Studies, says in an email.
But intriguingly, Beijing’s rush to portray America as weak may be masking its deeper concerns about the fact America is apparently willing to actually follow through on threats to leave the Middle East and refocus elsewhere.

Beijing’s concern about the US withdrawal “has as much to do with potential regional instability in Central Asia as it does with the understanding that the US is posturing itself to prioritise the Indo-Pacific theatre, and counter China,” Nouwens said.

Shidore said he thinks the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Biden Administration’s commitment to it, demonstrates to Pacific nations that the US really is serious about focusing on their region, what used to be called the Pacific pivot. “The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, planned and carried out by two very different presidents, is indicative that the United States is increasingly shifting its security focus to the Indo-Pacific, rather than adopting a strategy of restraint.”” he said, adding that allies and the Chinese know this. “I think they understand that the Pacific priority is one of the reasons why President Biden pulled out of Afghanistan.”