Posted on Jul 30, 2022
Climate experts experience an odd sensation after the Manchin budget deal: optimism
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https://www.npr.org/2022/07/29/ [login to see] /climate-experts-experience-an-odd-sensation-after-the-manchin-budget-deal-optimi
In just under two weeks, the United States went from shirking its climate pledges to breaking ground trying to meet them.
The nearly $370 billion energy and climate spending deal struck between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and conservative Democrat Joe Manchin would be the single largest federal clean energy investment in U.S. history. While it falls short of the $555 billion package Democrats proposed last year, preliminary assessments of the legislation by climate change modeling experts indicate that it would put the United States in a much stronger position to meet its pledges.
"It really makes me incredibly optimistic," said Jesse Jenkins, leader of the REPEAT Project at Princeton University, which analyzes the impact of government climate actions.
With the new policies in the bill, called the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" (IRA), Senate Democrats ballparked that the United States could lower its greenhouse gas emission by 40% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade. That does not quite meet President Biden's stated goal of reducing emissions by at least half at that point.
In just under two weeks, the United States went from shirking its climate pledges to breaking ground trying to meet them.
The nearly $370 billion energy and climate spending deal struck between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and conservative Democrat Joe Manchin would be the single largest federal clean energy investment in U.S. history. While it falls short of the $555 billion package Democrats proposed last year, preliminary assessments of the legislation by climate change modeling experts indicate that it would put the United States in a much stronger position to meet its pledges.
"It really makes me incredibly optimistic," said Jesse Jenkins, leader of the REPEAT Project at Princeton University, which analyzes the impact of government climate actions.
With the new policies in the bill, called the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" (IRA), Senate Democrats ballparked that the United States could lower its greenhouse gas emission by 40% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade. That does not quite meet President Biden's stated goal of reducing emissions by at least half at that point.
Climate experts experience an odd sensation after the Manchin budget deal: optimism
Posted from npr.org
Environment
Climate Change
Joe Biden
Democrats
United States Senate
Posted 2 y ago
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There is hope this will pass, between the extreme heat of last week to the floods of Kentucky. If events within last two years can Swead skeptics then nothing will
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1.) Sixty years of climate change warnings: the signs that were missed (and ignored)
Homes destroyed by a storm in New York state in 1962. Photograph: Bettmann/Getty/Guardian Design
The effects of ‘weird weather’ were already being felt in the 1960s, but scientists linking fossil fuels with climate change were dismissed as prophets of doom
by Alice Bell
“In August 1974, the CIA produced a study on “climatological research as it pertains to intelligence problems”. The diagnosis was dramatic. It warned of the emergence of a new era of weird weather, leading to political unrest and mass migration (which, in turn, would cause more unrest).
The new era the agency imagined wasn’t necessarily one of hotter temperatures; the CIA had heard from scientists warning of global cooling as well as warming. But the direction in which the thermometer was travelling wasn’t their immediate concern; it was the political impact.
They knew that the so-called “little ice age”, a series of cold snaps between, roughly, 1350 and 1850, had brought not only drought and famine, but also war – and so could these new climatic changes.”
SOURCE :
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/05/sixty-years-of-climate-change-warnings-the-signs-that-were-missed-and-ignored
2.) National Intelligence Estimate
Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040
NIC-NIE-2021-10030-
SOURCE :
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf
3.) Science
U.S. Intelligence Officials Warn Climate Change Is a Worldwide Threat
Their annual assessment says climate hazards such as extreme weather, droughts, floods, wildfires and sea level rise threaten infrastructure, health and security.
By Neela Banerjee
SOURCE :
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30012019/worldwide-threat-assessment-climate-change-intelligence-agencies-national-security/
Homes destroyed by a storm in New York state in 1962. Photograph: Bettmann/Getty/Guardian Design
The effects of ‘weird weather’ were already being felt in the 1960s, but scientists linking fossil fuels with climate change were dismissed as prophets of doom
by Alice Bell
“In August 1974, the CIA produced a study on “climatological research as it pertains to intelligence problems”. The diagnosis was dramatic. It warned of the emergence of a new era of weird weather, leading to political unrest and mass migration (which, in turn, would cause more unrest).
The new era the agency imagined wasn’t necessarily one of hotter temperatures; the CIA had heard from scientists warning of global cooling as well as warming. But the direction in which the thermometer was travelling wasn’t their immediate concern; it was the political impact.
They knew that the so-called “little ice age”, a series of cold snaps between, roughly, 1350 and 1850, had brought not only drought and famine, but also war – and so could these new climatic changes.”
SOURCE :
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/05/sixty-years-of-climate-change-warnings-the-signs-that-were-missed-and-ignored
2.) National Intelligence Estimate
Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040
NIC-NIE-2021-10030-
SOURCE :
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf
3.) Science
U.S. Intelligence Officials Warn Climate Change Is a Worldwide Threat
Their annual assessment says climate hazards such as extreme weather, droughts, floods, wildfires and sea level rise threaten infrastructure, health and security.
By Neela Banerjee
SOURCE :
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30012019/worldwide-threat-assessment-climate-change-intelligence-agencies-national-security/
Sixty years of climate change warnings: the signs that were missed (and ignored)
The long read: The effects of ‘weird weather’ were already being felt in the 1960s, but scientists linking fossil fuels with climate change were dismissed as prophets of doom
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PO1 William "Chip" Nagel
...""We're excited to see the way that this has played out and what language actually has made it into this proposed piece of legislation," said Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, a group that represents both offshore wind and offshore oil and gas producers.
When taken into consideration amid the other provisions, the additional guarantees for oil and gas leasing are more than offset by the emissions reductions, according to the Rhodium Group.
"The oil and gas leasing provisions have a negligible impact on emissions, and are far outweighed by the emissions reductions in clean energy, clean vehicle and energy efficiency deployment," said Young.
Supporters are hoping that these compromises, if successful in getting through Congress, will also help make the policy stick.
"It's clearly a necessary trade off politically," said Jenkins. "If the alternative is no bill, then this is clearly preferential."
...""We're excited to see the way that this has played out and what language actually has made it into this proposed piece of legislation," said Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, a group that represents both offshore wind and offshore oil and gas producers.
When taken into consideration amid the other provisions, the additional guarantees for oil and gas leasing are more than offset by the emissions reductions, according to the Rhodium Group.
"The oil and gas leasing provisions have a negligible impact on emissions, and are far outweighed by the emissions reductions in clean energy, clean vehicle and energy efficiency deployment," said Young.
Supporters are hoping that these compromises, if successful in getting through Congress, will also help make the policy stick.
"It's clearly a necessary trade off politically," said Jenkins. "If the alternative is no bill, then this is clearly preferential."
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