Russia’s Ukraine Disaster Exposes China’s Military Weakness

PO1 William "Chip" Nagel
..."Russia’s Ukraine adventure should be inspiring caution among the PLA’s professional war-fighting cadre. They have seen their closest military ally gamble everything on an elective war of territorial conquest only to end up weaker, less feared, and more isolated than they were before the invasion.

Still, it would be a mistake to think that the Ukraine war will convince China never to attempt a takeover of Taiwan, or that it will prevent China from using force to pursue its territorial claims in the South China Sea, India, or anywhere else. Indeed, a year before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese authorities issued a new accelerated timeline to the PLA to accomplish key modernization goals at a far more urgent pace. This was reiterated by Xi in his keynote speech at the 20th Party Congress in October 2022 when he called for a “quicker elevation of the PLA to world-class standards” and the need to achieve key unspecified military development goals by 2027 instead of an earlier timeline of 2035.

This suggests that PLA leaders are facing a worrying conundrum over the next few years. The lessons of the Russian war against Ukraine shows that China militarily needs much more time to strengthen and revamp its war-fighting establishment to address the glaring weaknesses and gaps highlighted on the Ukrainian battlefield. Politically though, Beijing is becoming increasingly anxious that its goal of reunification with Taiwan is at growing risk because deepening ties between Taiwan and the U.S. and its allies. The PLA may find itself being called into action well before it is combat-ready."

I fail to see the Russian attempt in Ukraine is a mirror of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Russia was doomed from the beginning with poor supply lines and apparently inadeqately trained troops. It's nice to think that the Russians are merely a bunch of drunks who are describied at times by the media but still even now Russia is putting three week trainees in sort of like the middle east. China is not Russia. They now have hypersonic missles that work and neutralize air craft carriers. The Chinese culture is one of individual subjugation to the family and next the state. Just look at how they respond to total lockdowns. The U.S. military is weak in the Army, Navy and Airforce. The Marines are apparently ok. The U.S. military still works under a theory that high level commanders watching things from DC should be able to tell commanders in the field what to do, and are always ready to back off for political reasons. 2022 warfare is something I don't understand even in Ukraine. The Ukraines apparently used drones to attack Russian ships and the Russians lodged complaints. WTF? Are you fighting a war or screwing around. The world press goes wild over a couple hundred dead in attacks on a city. Does no one remember Dresdon? The Chinese will easily hold off the US in the South China Sea. The U.S. will not enter into a full scale war.

This is great news, I hope it's However, I cannot fail to notice that for the most part FP.com is one of those sources of institutionalized neo-con (i.e. war mongering) ignorance.

Despite the author speaking with such confidence, his opinions are just that, opinions. What he has couched as facts, are actually fancies of hope in an increasingly dangerous world. I share his opinion of the inherent weaknesses of the PLA. However the inherent weaknesses of a nation's military force has seldom prevented them from stupidly starting a war. Nazi Germany went to war 5-7 years too early; it lacked a sustainable surface navy and a true long range bomber. Imperial Japan went to war with extremely tenuous lines of communication and supply. Adding to that was their complete miscalculation of the strength and tenacity of the US military along with our massive industrial strength. The US engaged in an irregular "police action" in Vietnam, even though it was primarily organized and trained to fight a peer on peer conventional or nuclear war in Western Europe. It didn't help our efforts that we had no clear mission or cogent exit strategy

With all this taken into consideration, I will pray for the best case scenario, but increasingly urge our leadership to plan for the worst.