How Ukraine Just Showed That Russia Is Way More Vulnerable Than Anyone Imagined

LTC Eugene Chu Most Definitely!

LTC Eugene Chu
..."This isn’t the first time that the Ukrainians have damaged targets inside Russia—or on territory that Putin considers to be Russia. Ukraine has launched drone strikes against targets in Crimea, which Putin annexed in 2014. Fighting continues in the four districts that Putin formally (but in no way meaningfully) annexed in September, including Kherson and the Donbas region. There have also been several mysterious fires or explosions at chemical plants and other facilities inside Russia; Ukrainian saboteurs are thought to be responsible.

Still, a direct, undeniable air strike against a target on indisputably Russian territory—that crosses a line. The question is whether Putin considers it a red line—and, if so, what he does about it. He may do nothing (beyond doing more of what he’s been doing already). He may do something drastic, though it’s hard to say just what that might be. Attacking, say, a weapons depot or training site in Poland seems unlikely; that would be an attack on a NATO member, which could prompt direct NATO involvement in the war, which would be to Russia’s severe disadvantage. Escalating to chemical or nuclear weapons seems absurdly disproportionate as well.

Putin may just have to eat it; he may have to accept that Russia itself has now been drawn into his war. Will he pay a price for that, politically? Will he step up the war, against all military reason, to avoid paying a price? Zelensky may have crossed the line and fired a drone into Russia, at least in part, to force Putin into this position—either of having to accept Russia’s military vulnerability (which could trigger Putin’s own political vulnerability) or having to escalate the war (which could bring the U.S. and NATO to engage in it more directly).

Whatever happens, the calculations of war and peace in Ukraine just got at least a little bit more complicated."