TheJokerIsWild.pdf

BG Marshall sent this over today replying to a post. Really great reading! "Assumptions are more than just best-guess factors required to continue the planning process. As Joint Publication (JP) 5–0,
Joint Operation Planning, points out, assumptions are suppositions that we require in the
absence of facts in order to plan. In many cases, these suppositions drive operational
success or failure, and the inability either to understand or to manage assumptions can
open the door for significant problems, or even catastrophic failure.
Assumptions are a critical part of both the decision making and decision execution
processes. The new concept of operational design makes assumption management even
more critical than the deliberate decisionmaking process. Operational design places empha-
sis on intuition and less structured, more creative decisionmaking and is absolutely critical
for success in the complex joint interagency, intergovernmental, multinational (JIIM)
environments that our forces will operate in. However, we must understand not only the
explicit assumptions the commander and staff make during operational design, but also the
implicit assumptions inherent in a less structured decision that are often unstated and
perhaps not even recognized. These implicit assumptions could significantly impair an
operation if they are not understood and managed properly"