Posted on Oct 14, 2023
Putin is ready to take advantage of Israel-Gaza war, says Steve Rosenberg
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Posted 7 mo ago
Responses: 4
LTC Eugene Chu
..."Denouncing America
The Kremlin spies an opportunity here to do what it already does plenty of - blaming America.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel, Vladimir Putin's central message has been that "this is an example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East".
It fits the general pattern of Moscow attacking what it calls "US hegemony".
And framing America as the central culprit in the Middle East is the Kremlin's way of bolstering Russia's standing in the region at Washington's expense.
So far I've talked about the potential benefits for Russia from events in the Middle East. But there are dangers, too.
"Carefully calibrated instability is what serves Russia best," believes Hanna Notte.
"If this crisis diverts attention from Ukraine - and there's a real risk of that, given the importance of Israel in the US domestic political context - yes, Russia could be a short-term beneficiary."
But Russia would not benefit from a war that draws in the broader region, including Iran which provides weapons and finance to Hamas, Ms Notte says.
"Russia doesn't want a full-blown war between Israel and Iran. If things drift towards that, and it becomes clear America comes down hard on Israel's side, I think Russia will see no choice but to drift further to the Iranian side. I'm not sure that it wants to.
"I think Putin still values his ties with Israel. I don't think Russian diplomacy wants to move into that space where they have to pick sides. But the more this conflict escalates, the more they might feel the pressure."
..."Denouncing America
The Kremlin spies an opportunity here to do what it already does plenty of - blaming America.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel, Vladimir Putin's central message has been that "this is an example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East".
It fits the general pattern of Moscow attacking what it calls "US hegemony".
And framing America as the central culprit in the Middle East is the Kremlin's way of bolstering Russia's standing in the region at Washington's expense.
So far I've talked about the potential benefits for Russia from events in the Middle East. But there are dangers, too.
"Carefully calibrated instability is what serves Russia best," believes Hanna Notte.
"If this crisis diverts attention from Ukraine - and there's a real risk of that, given the importance of Israel in the US domestic political context - yes, Russia could be a short-term beneficiary."
But Russia would not benefit from a war that draws in the broader region, including Iran which provides weapons and finance to Hamas, Ms Notte says.
"Russia doesn't want a full-blown war between Israel and Iran. If things drift towards that, and it becomes clear America comes down hard on Israel's side, I think Russia will see no choice but to drift further to the Iranian side. I'm not sure that it wants to.
"I think Putin still values his ties with Israel. I don't think Russian diplomacy wants to move into that space where they have to pick sides. But the more this conflict escalates, the more they might feel the pressure."
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