Ignore the Polls and Pundits—Biden Will Win Reelection

The 2024 presidential election is just under a year out and it looks almost certain that, despite the fact that the supermajority of voters in both parties do not want it, we will be getting a rematch of the 2020 election. Poll after poll indicate this will be a very tight race, one where former President Donald Trump is often favored to win a second, nonconsecutive, term. So too are political pundits routinely calling President Joe Biden a weak incumbent, in danger of losing to his once and future foe. I would however take a contrarian view of the state of the race, issuing a call to ignore the polls and the pundits because Biden is cruising to reelection.

The evidence suggesting Biden is in trouble rests almost entirely on polls. Granted, the polls are painting a clear picture that this race will be close. However, research has made equally clear that polling a year out from a presidential election is notoriously unreliable. At this point in past election cycles, polls frequently saw the likes of Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama as either being in tight races or outright underdogs for reelection, yet all these men went on to secure second terms.