Posted on Sep 13, 2019
America has no good military options to use in Afghanistan
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No one can forge lasting peace or win a war on the basis of bluff and bluster, or by ignoring the sheer facts on the ground. This, however, is how the United States is currently approaching the long running war in Afghanistan. Both those who argue for a quick peace deal and those who argue for continuing the war have chosen to ignore the grim realities that are actually shaping the course of the fighting and the challenges posed by one of the worst and least effective governments in the world.
There are three main sources of official reporting on the military course of the war, the success of Afghan forces, and the importance of American forces on the ground. These are the official reporting by the Department of Defense, the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, and the Lead Inspector General. All reveal that the war is at best a stalemate, and that it is now more probable that the Taliban is slowly winning.
Resolute Support Mission has stopped reporting on which side controls, contests, and influences given districts, evidently because such reports showed steady Taliban gains. All of the reports, however, raise critical issues about progress in creating effective Afghan forces that can stand on their own, either to secure a peace or to successfully keep fighting. All indicate that government forces now need American combat forces to support them if they are to survive and defend key population centers.
There are three main sources of official reporting on the military course of the war, the success of Afghan forces, and the importance of American forces on the ground. These are the official reporting by the Department of Defense, the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, and the Lead Inspector General. All reveal that the war is at best a stalemate, and that it is now more probable that the Taliban is slowly winning.
Resolute Support Mission has stopped reporting on which side controls, contests, and influences given districts, evidently because such reports showed steady Taliban gains. All of the reports, however, raise critical issues about progress in creating effective Afghan forces that can stand on their own, either to secure a peace or to successfully keep fighting. All indicate that government forces now need American combat forces to support them if they are to survive and defend key population centers.
America has no good military options to use in Afghanistan
Posted from thehill.com
Afghanistan
Policy
Diplomacy
Posted 5 y ago
Responses: 3
3
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Carpet bomb the border with Pakistan until it becomes a canyon, for a good start. Mop up anyone that can't take the hint systematically after that.
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You can only make peace with your enemies, that being said, it would be insane to continue down the path we are going. We either make peace and leave or make war so unreasonable, that peace is the only way, and then we leave that freshly made parking lot.
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As someone locally familiar with the current state of affairs in Afghanistan, I disagree that "Resolute Support Mission has stopped reporting on which side controls, contests, and influences given districts, evidently because such reports showed steady Taliban gains." That's not the ground truth.
Yes, the Taliban occasionally "take over" a district center for a few hours and win an IO victory - but they lose it shortly after. THEY consider that "control" and try to propagandize it that way - and in that sense, it appears to be working. But, it's not the reality on the ground.
I do think that we are at a stalemate with the Taliban. I think the Afghan Army hasn't stepped up to the plate on their own because they haven't had to. We've been holding the bicycle seat steady for 15 years and it's probably time to let go and see what happens. It's likely they will crash - and then they will have to get up and do it again. That's the problem we're running into - we never let them "fail" and so they never learn the hard lessons forged in defeat.
The Taliban, however, have been learning hard lessons about warfare for decades. They've been on the receiving end of disaster and failure and death for decades and learn from each one. No one is holding their hand, and they are "holding out" against the most powerful military in the world. They know they cannot "win" but they don't need to - as long as they don't QUIT, they win. The US WILL eventually reduce forces and that will be their win.
Our best bet now, outside of incorporating the Taliban into the government via a peace deal, is to quietly tell the Afghan President and National Security folks that there IS a timeline for US withdrawal and that they must be ready to take the reigns at that point. We don't need to broadcast the timeline, but we do need to have one. No child learning to ride a bike wants their parent to let go - and yet, the parent needs to let go. The Afghans don't want the US to let go - but, if they are even going to ride this bike on their own - we're going to have to.
Yes, the Taliban occasionally "take over" a district center for a few hours and win an IO victory - but they lose it shortly after. THEY consider that "control" and try to propagandize it that way - and in that sense, it appears to be working. But, it's not the reality on the ground.
I do think that we are at a stalemate with the Taliban. I think the Afghan Army hasn't stepped up to the plate on their own because they haven't had to. We've been holding the bicycle seat steady for 15 years and it's probably time to let go and see what happens. It's likely they will crash - and then they will have to get up and do it again. That's the problem we're running into - we never let them "fail" and so they never learn the hard lessons forged in defeat.
The Taliban, however, have been learning hard lessons about warfare for decades. They've been on the receiving end of disaster and failure and death for decades and learn from each one. No one is holding their hand, and they are "holding out" against the most powerful military in the world. They know they cannot "win" but they don't need to - as long as they don't QUIT, they win. The US WILL eventually reduce forces and that will be their win.
Our best bet now, outside of incorporating the Taliban into the government via a peace deal, is to quietly tell the Afghan President and National Security folks that there IS a timeline for US withdrawal and that they must be ready to take the reigns at that point. We don't need to broadcast the timeline, but we do need to have one. No child learning to ride a bike wants their parent to let go - and yet, the parent needs to let go. The Afghans don't want the US to let go - but, if they are even going to ride this bike on their own - we're going to have to.
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