Fast Growth, and Lots of It, Is Right Around the Corner

Have a friend who learned his trade in the Navy during Korean Conflict. He then went to work for the NWS. After retiring from that he became a local weatherman. After a particular rough week, rain instead of sunshine, sunshine instead of rain, he jokingly stated on the news, "I have no idea what's gonna happen tomorrow.".

I just posted a similar story - economists (not all) have been off the mark for years, yet we are supposed to believe them now.

There was actually quite a bit of concern published by economists about an impending bubble burst leading into 2008 due to de regulation surrounding lending amd investment. It is very important to distinguish between economic analysis and political economic policy. Also, this article gets at one field within economics and that is political macroeconomics, which is supremely difficult to be accurate because actual economists don't control policy. Also, just like anything else, there are different ways to look at a problem. Inherently, however, thr bigger the problem, the more room for error there will be. A lot of those prediction numbers im the article are also inaccurate or they are only the upper threshhold of a given year's prediction, rather than the settled upon prediction. Rule of thumb, in a developed economy in the short run, growth in t+1=t, relatively. Growth at 3% in our current economic climate is a recipe for inflation. The economy is stabilized along a steady state growth path and forcing it off that path can create volatile swings in our business cycles. That is why we look to keep growth within a certain range.