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Alternate Title—The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Security Measures Against Agro-Terrorism: A Business Case for Physical Security Professionals
Updated: DTG 061330Z MAY 2017, 071530Z, 071745Z, 081100Z, 081300Z
Is it your destiny to champion the fight against agro-terrorism? The late Frank Outlaw, president of the Bi-Lo Supermarket chain—now owned by Southeastern Grocers—is accredited with the anadiplosic saying, “Watch your thoughts, they become words; watch your words, they become actions; watch your actions, they become habits; watch your habits, they become character; watch your character, for it becomes your destiny” (Quoteinvestigator.com, 2013). An easily overlooked wordplay in his saying addresses the initials of the sentryic term of art 'watch', which is not only emblematic of words, actions, thoughts, character, and habits but befitting your watch on the cognitive biases affecting the planning of physical security measures against agro-terorrism.
Agro-Terrorism is sprouting up to be no small potato as new legislation tends to create entrepreneurial opportunities for physical security veterans (Smith & Ibrahim, 2013). However, when comparing security measures (e.g., close-circuit television, fences, gates, guards etc.) found in modern security watch settings to protect power plants, military installations, and other CIKR (Critical infrastructure and Key Resources), acts of agro-terrorism against a $1-trillion U.S. food and agriculture industry are soft targets that pose the easiest risks for terrorists (i-hls.com, 2015; Powell, 2016, 11:57).
Consequently, Representative David Young (R-IA-3) has reintroduced the 'Securing our Agriculture and Food Act' (Congress.gov, 2016; Politics and b's*th, 2016) to protect the U.S. from agro-terrorism threats, and other high-risk, bio-security events (Young, 2017). Knowing what cognitive biases (Delzo, 2017; Wireless Philosophy, 2015) feed agro-terrorism (Fatka, 2017; Olson, 2012) is the meat and potatoes for: 1) understanding how such attacks will be cooked up, 2) providing extremism context (Bruneau, 2016; Sinicki, 2017), and 3) anticipating trends that help veterans entrepreneurs compete for federal contracts that establish protection of global food supplies and livestock (Economicsandpeace.org, 2016).
In FY 2004-05 RallyPoint member Major John Bell (USMC-Retired) won a Federal contract to perform as the terrorism consultant for three rural Michigan counties. Contract deliverables included conducting a 1) critical infrastructure survey, 2) security assessment of potential targets, and then 3) exercising wargaming scenarios—that eventually identified advantages favoring terrorists.
Interested in logical fallacies and cognitive biases associated with security planning (MacVicar, 2016), I asked Major Bell, did DHS provide him with source documents to ensure [contractual] compliance, or did he contrive his own? He explained that the deliverables were "sort of" specified—or implied—in phases of the Request for Proposal (RFP). For example, phase one deliverables included a listing of CI (Critical Infrastructure) with a short description of "worst case" consequences/scenarios. Phase two identified a security vulnerability assessment of targets designated by the federal CO (Contracting Officer). Major Bell had to submit his own assessment methodology with the RFP using the same methodology as on his Marine Barracks tour and his Marine Security Guard Battalion tour.
Phase three was a tabletop exercise for each county (the three counties have a Mutual Aid Agreement (MAG) where he developed a scenario with miniatures on a 32'x64' terrain model of the target with 30-person staff that exercised everything from 911 calls to onlookers to state and federal assistance. Additionally, they exercised the initial response to scene stabilization (DHS-FBI, 2008; FEMA, 2000; US Army, 2007) for 12 hours, recovery operations a week later for 12 hours, and then 2 hours a week for 11 weeks they simulated the requests for state and federal aid.
List of References:
Bruneau, E. (2016, Nov. 21). Understanding the Terrorist Mind. Retrieved from http://www.dana.org/Cerebrum/2016/Understanding_the_Terrorist_Mind/
Congress.gov. (2016, Sep. 27). H.R.5346 - Securing our Agriculture and Food Act. Retrieved from https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/hr5346/BILLS-114hr5346rfs.pdf
Delzo, J. (2017, Apr. 6). 20 Cognitive Biases That Affect Your Beliefs, Behavior, And Decision. Retrieved from http://www.medicaldaily.com/20-cognitive-biases-affect-your-beliefs-behavior-and-decisions-414985
Department of Homeland Security-Federal Bureau of Investigation (DHS-FBI). (2008, Apr. 23). (U) Potential Terrorist Attack Methods: Joint Special Assessment. Retrieved from http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb388/docs/EBB015.pdf
Economicsandpeace.org. (2016). Global Terrorism Index 2016: Measuring and Understanding the Impact of Terrorism. Institute for Economics & Peace. Retrieved from http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf
Federal Emergency Management. (2000, Mar. 1). Emergency Response to Terrorism:
Tactical Considerations: Company Officer. Retrieved from https://www.michigan.gov/documents/dleg_bccfs_manual_ert_tc_company_officer_161654_7.pdf
Fatka, J. (2017, Mar 6). Bill Addresses Agro-Terrorism Threats. Retrieved from http://www.feedstuffs.com/news/bill-addresses-agro-terrorism-threats
i=hls.com. (2015, Jan. 19). Is Agroterrorism—is this a real threat? Retrieved from http://i-hls.com/archives/48058
MacVicar, I. (2016, May 2). Cognitive Traps in Security Planning. Retrieved from https://www.slideshare.net/IanMacVicar/cognitive-traps-in-security-planning
Olson, D. (2012 Feb. 1). Agroterrorism Threats to America’s Economy and Food Supply. Retrieved from https://leb.fbi.gov/2012/february/agroterrorism-threats-to-americas-economy-and-food-supply
Politics and b's*th. (2016, Sep. 26). US House of Representatives - H.R.5346 Securing our Agriculture and Food Act - September 26 2016. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEUk7MhwP64
Powell, J.D. (2016, Oct. 16). Understanding the Threat of Agroterrorism and the Introduction of Zoonotic Diseases. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZyWT0AQ8bc
Quoteinvestigator.com. (2013, Jan. 10). Watch Your Thoughts, They Become Words; Watch Your Words, They Become Actions. Retrieved from http://quoteinvestigator.com/tag/frank-outlaw/
Sinicki, A. (2017). Can Anyone Become a Terrorist? How Cognitive Biases and Other Psychological Phenomena Lead to Extremist Views. Retrieved from http://www.healthguidance.org/entry/17144/1/Can-Anyone-Become-a-Terrorist-How-Cognitive-Biases-and-Other-Psychological-Phenomena-Lead-to-Extremist-Views.html
Smith, D.G. & Ibrahim, D.M. (2013, Sep 6). Law and Entrepreneurial Opportunities. Cornell Law Review. Vol 98. http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3286&context=clr
Stewart, S. (2017, May 4). What Drives Terrorism Part 1: Ideology and Theory. Retrieved from https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/what-drives-terrorism-part-1-ideology-and-theory?utm_campaign=LL_Content_Digest&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=51548009&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8BdjnzON8izgfZwRZQxlhTXKmEKAd5KJG1dww77rCGikWjBg2f_KSxFUn3IwadRBAo8XXsiplo8q39hOkYT-sGUbQAiQ&_hsmi=51549148
US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). (2007, Aug. 15). A Military Guide to Terrorism in the 21st Century. US Army TRADOC TRADOC G2 Handbook No. 1. Retrieved from http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army/guidterr/guidterr.pdf
Wireless Philoshophy. (2015, Sep 16) CRITICAL THINKING - Cognitive Biases: Anchoring [HD]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFiDdbquWJY
Young, D. (2017, May 4). Fight for Rural Iowa. Retrieved from http://www.clarindaherald.com/opinion/columns/fighting-for-rural-iowa/article_79aa0354-3039-11e7-ba0f-47becfaec504.html
Updated: DTG 061330Z MAY 2017, 071530Z, 071745Z, 081100Z, 081300Z
Is it your destiny to champion the fight against agro-terrorism? The late Frank Outlaw, president of the Bi-Lo Supermarket chain—now owned by Southeastern Grocers—is accredited with the anadiplosic saying, “Watch your thoughts, they become words; watch your words, they become actions; watch your actions, they become habits; watch your habits, they become character; watch your character, for it becomes your destiny” (Quoteinvestigator.com, 2013). An easily overlooked wordplay in his saying addresses the initials of the sentryic term of art 'watch', which is not only emblematic of words, actions, thoughts, character, and habits but befitting your watch on the cognitive biases affecting the planning of physical security measures against agro-terorrism.
Agro-Terrorism is sprouting up to be no small potato as new legislation tends to create entrepreneurial opportunities for physical security veterans (Smith & Ibrahim, 2013). However, when comparing security measures (e.g., close-circuit television, fences, gates, guards etc.) found in modern security watch settings to protect power plants, military installations, and other CIKR (Critical infrastructure and Key Resources), acts of agro-terrorism against a $1-trillion U.S. food and agriculture industry are soft targets that pose the easiest risks for terrorists (i-hls.com, 2015; Powell, 2016, 11:57).
Consequently, Representative David Young (R-IA-3) has reintroduced the 'Securing our Agriculture and Food Act' (Congress.gov, 2016; Politics and b's*th, 2016) to protect the U.S. from agro-terrorism threats, and other high-risk, bio-security events (Young, 2017). Knowing what cognitive biases (Delzo, 2017; Wireless Philosophy, 2015) feed agro-terrorism (Fatka, 2017; Olson, 2012) is the meat and potatoes for: 1) understanding how such attacks will be cooked up, 2) providing extremism context (Bruneau, 2016; Sinicki, 2017), and 3) anticipating trends that help veterans entrepreneurs compete for federal contracts that establish protection of global food supplies and livestock (Economicsandpeace.org, 2016).
In FY 2004-05 RallyPoint member Major John Bell (USMC-Retired) won a Federal contract to perform as the terrorism consultant for three rural Michigan counties. Contract deliverables included conducting a 1) critical infrastructure survey, 2) security assessment of potential targets, and then 3) exercising wargaming scenarios—that eventually identified advantages favoring terrorists.
Interested in logical fallacies and cognitive biases associated with security planning (MacVicar, 2016), I asked Major Bell, did DHS provide him with source documents to ensure [contractual] compliance, or did he contrive his own? He explained that the deliverables were "sort of" specified—or implied—in phases of the Request for Proposal (RFP). For example, phase one deliverables included a listing of CI (Critical Infrastructure) with a short description of "worst case" consequences/scenarios. Phase two identified a security vulnerability assessment of targets designated by the federal CO (Contracting Officer). Major Bell had to submit his own assessment methodology with the RFP using the same methodology as on his Marine Barracks tour and his Marine Security Guard Battalion tour.
Phase three was a tabletop exercise for each county (the three counties have a Mutual Aid Agreement (MAG) where he developed a scenario with miniatures on a 32'x64' terrain model of the target with 30-person staff that exercised everything from 911 calls to onlookers to state and federal assistance. Additionally, they exercised the initial response to scene stabilization (DHS-FBI, 2008; FEMA, 2000; US Army, 2007) for 12 hours, recovery operations a week later for 12 hours, and then 2 hours a week for 11 weeks they simulated the requests for state and federal aid.
List of References:
Bruneau, E. (2016, Nov. 21). Understanding the Terrorist Mind. Retrieved from http://www.dana.org/Cerebrum/2016/Understanding_the_Terrorist_Mind/
Congress.gov. (2016, Sep. 27). H.R.5346 - Securing our Agriculture and Food Act. Retrieved from https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/hr5346/BILLS-114hr5346rfs.pdf
Delzo, J. (2017, Apr. 6). 20 Cognitive Biases That Affect Your Beliefs, Behavior, And Decision. Retrieved from http://www.medicaldaily.com/20-cognitive-biases-affect-your-beliefs-behavior-and-decisions-414985
Department of Homeland Security-Federal Bureau of Investigation (DHS-FBI). (2008, Apr. 23). (U) Potential Terrorist Attack Methods: Joint Special Assessment. Retrieved from http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb388/docs/EBB015.pdf
Economicsandpeace.org. (2016). Global Terrorism Index 2016: Measuring and Understanding the Impact of Terrorism. Institute for Economics & Peace. Retrieved from http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf
Federal Emergency Management. (2000, Mar. 1). Emergency Response to Terrorism:
Tactical Considerations: Company Officer. Retrieved from https://www.michigan.gov/documents/dleg_bccfs_manual_ert_tc_company_officer_161654_7.pdf
Fatka, J. (2017, Mar 6). Bill Addresses Agro-Terrorism Threats. Retrieved from http://www.feedstuffs.com/news/bill-addresses-agro-terrorism-threats
i=hls.com. (2015, Jan. 19). Is Agroterrorism—is this a real threat? Retrieved from http://i-hls.com/archives/48058
MacVicar, I. (2016, May 2). Cognitive Traps in Security Planning. Retrieved from https://www.slideshare.net/IanMacVicar/cognitive-traps-in-security-planning
Olson, D. (2012 Feb. 1). Agroterrorism Threats to America’s Economy and Food Supply. Retrieved from https://leb.fbi.gov/2012/february/agroterrorism-threats-to-americas-economy-and-food-supply
Politics and b's*th. (2016, Sep. 26). US House of Representatives - H.R.5346 Securing our Agriculture and Food Act - September 26 2016. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEUk7MhwP64
Powell, J.D. (2016, Oct. 16). Understanding the Threat of Agroterrorism and the Introduction of Zoonotic Diseases. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZyWT0AQ8bc
Quoteinvestigator.com. (2013, Jan. 10). Watch Your Thoughts, They Become Words; Watch Your Words, They Become Actions. Retrieved from http://quoteinvestigator.com/tag/frank-outlaw/
Sinicki, A. (2017). Can Anyone Become a Terrorist? How Cognitive Biases and Other Psychological Phenomena Lead to Extremist Views. Retrieved from http://www.healthguidance.org/entry/17144/1/Can-Anyone-Become-a-Terrorist-How-Cognitive-Biases-and-Other-Psychological-Phenomena-Lead-to-Extremist-Views.html
Smith, D.G. & Ibrahim, D.M. (2013, Sep 6). Law and Entrepreneurial Opportunities. Cornell Law Review. Vol 98. http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3286&context=clr
Stewart, S. (2017, May 4). What Drives Terrorism Part 1: Ideology and Theory. Retrieved from https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/what-drives-terrorism-part-1-ideology-and-theory?utm_campaign=LL_Content_Digest&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=51548009&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8BdjnzON8izgfZwRZQxlhTXKmEKAd5KJG1dww77rCGikWjBg2f_KSxFUn3IwadRBAo8XXsiplo8q39hOkYT-sGUbQAiQ&_hsmi=51549148
US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). (2007, Aug. 15). A Military Guide to Terrorism in the 21st Century. US Army TRADOC TRADOC G2 Handbook No. 1. Retrieved from http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army/guidterr/guidterr.pdf
Wireless Philoshophy. (2015, Sep 16) CRITICAL THINKING - Cognitive Biases: Anchoring [HD]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFiDdbquWJY
Young, D. (2017, May 4). Fight for Rural Iowa. Retrieved from http://www.clarindaherald.com/opinion/columns/fighting-for-rural-iowa/article_79aa0354-3039-11e7-ba0f-47becfaec504.html
Fighting for rural Iowa
Posted from clarindaherald.com
Agriculture
Homeland Security
Medicine
Psychology
Terrorism
Edited >1 y ago
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 4
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Interesting thought, terrorist hitting agriculture would be a grave problem for the nation.
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During 2004 and 2005 I won the Federal contract to be the terrorism consultant for three rural Michigan counties. I was responsible for conducting a critical infrastructure survey and security assessment of those potential targets, and then war game some of those scenarios. I will only say the advantage always lies with the aggressor.
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MSgt Ken "Airsoldier" Collins-Hardy
Maj John Bell – Did DHS provide you with source documents to ensure compliance, or did you create your own, Sir?
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Maj John Bell
MSgt Ken "Airsoldier" Collins-Hardy - The "deliverables" were "sort of"specified in the Request for Proposal "RFP." Phase one deliverables were a list of critical infrastructure with a short description of "worst case" consequences.
Phase two was a security assessment of the vulnerabilities of targets designated by the federal contracting officer. I had to submit my assessment methodology with the proposal. I used the same methodology as on my Marine Barracks tour and my Marine Security Guard Battalion tour.
Phase three was a tabletop exercise for each county (the three counties have a Mutual Aid Agreement "MAG") where I developed a scenario played out with miniatures on a 32'x64' terrain model of the target, with a staff of 30 people who did everything from 911 calls to onlookers to state and federal assistance. We did the initial response to scene stabilization for 12 hours, recovery operations a week later for 12 hours and then 2 hours a week for 11 weeks we simulated the requests for state and federal aid.
Phase two was a security assessment of the vulnerabilities of targets designated by the federal contracting officer. I had to submit my assessment methodology with the proposal. I used the same methodology as on my Marine Barracks tour and my Marine Security Guard Battalion tour.
Phase three was a tabletop exercise for each county (the three counties have a Mutual Aid Agreement "MAG") where I developed a scenario played out with miniatures on a 32'x64' terrain model of the target, with a staff of 30 people who did everything from 911 calls to onlookers to state and federal assistance. We did the initial response to scene stabilization for 12 hours, recovery operations a week later for 12 hours and then 2 hours a week for 11 weeks we simulated the requests for state and federal aid.
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Wow, I live in rural Minnesota with corn and soy bean fields in every direction. I had not considered Agro Business as a target as it simply had not occurred to me. That bursts my comfort bubble of being in the middle of nowhere.
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MSgt Ken "Airsoldier" Collins-Hardy
PFC Roger Goff – I'm here for you, brother! It's amazing how networking on RP can broaden ones perspective. Be sure to check out those source links, too.
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PFC Roger Goff
Thanks for the info Ken. Unfortunately I've tried several of the links and they no longer work. I'll give more a try.
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