Is Trump’s Iran Strategy Working? | by Mohamed A. El-Erian

Good read. I think Trump has been willing to take a very direct and unilateral approach as he has seen what the WTO and multilateralism (globalism) has gotten us and the world, not much. We have China who has risen to a position of global power none of us should be comfortable with and Iran that is meddling in and trying to dominate their region. This cannot be looked at through an economic prism only. Political and military power are also in the equation.

China and Iran want political, military and economic power. Trump has hit them where it hurts by cratering Iran's economy with sanctions and China's with tariffs. The tariffs are causing companies to leave China which for us is a good thing. We don't need a powerful China (politically, militarily or economically). We have seen their recent moves in the region, none of them are good.

With Iran, the short term risk is smaller. They are unlikely to confront us directly and they were just put on notice that the redline exists and when you cross it, very important people will die. They now have a new element to put in their calculus as they move forward. Their response to our taking out Soleimani demonstrates they understand direct confrontation will not work.

China is a long game player. They always have been. They were going to wait Trump out. They are now hedging their bets as they see Trump remaining in office. If they wait until after the election to cut a deal they know they are in real trouble. This is why we have a phase 1 deal. It is a hedge to get something in place. If Trump wins (as they think he will) they played ball in his first term and in Phase 2 they will have to give more.

That was a really good read CPT Jack Durish, thanks....