"Beyond the Philippines, the region remains susceptible to outbreaks of extremist-inspired violence. The Malaysian and Indonesian prison populations contain a high proportion of former JI-affiliated extremists, who are due for release in the next five years. Combined with the growing disenfranchisement of Myanmar’s Rohingya population, an already well-established pattern of Uyghur movement through the region, the return of foreign fighters and their families from the Middle East, and pre-existing drivers of religious disenfranchisement, this provides a set of volatile conditions.
Assuming that the current outbreak of violence in Marawi is contained in the near future, the broader political conditions in the southern Philippines increase the chances of a repeated outbreak of extremist-inspired violence, particularly since ISIS and affiliated extremist brands will persist in fomenting further unrest in the region. This compounding set of circumstances demands a comprehensive response from regional governments and the broader international community."