Posted on Oct 6, 2022
The CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong?
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"The Central Intelligence Agency was so pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances that officials told President Joe Biden and other policymakers that the best they could expect was that the remnants of Ukraine’s defeated forces would mount an insurgency, a guerrilla war against the Russian occupiers. By the time of the February invasion, the CIA was already planning how to provide covert support for a Ukrainian insurgency following a Russian military victory, the officials said."
The CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong?
Posted from theintercept.com
Intelligence
Posted 2 y ago
Responses: 5
Call it the "Afghanistan Model"
They estimated that Afghanistan would take months to collapse and were wrong, so to make up for it they estimated only days for Ukraine to collapse...
On a more serious note - they gravely underestimated the intangible aspect of the Ukrainians patriotism and will. It's easy to count tanks, planes, and soldiers. Much harder with those things that can't be readily seen or inferred.
Intangibles are hard - nobody expected a scrawny underaged private to become one of the most celebrated heroes in the military (Audie Murphy). If you just stuck to the 'observables', you would never say he would amount to much.
They estimated that Afghanistan would take months to collapse and were wrong, so to make up for it they estimated only days for Ukraine to collapse...
On a more serious note - they gravely underestimated the intangible aspect of the Ukrainians patriotism and will. It's easy to count tanks, planes, and soldiers. Much harder with those things that can't be readily seen or inferred.
Intangibles are hard - nobody expected a scrawny underaged private to become one of the most celebrated heroes in the military (Audie Murphy). If you just stuck to the 'observables', you would never say he would amount to much.
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Our agencies do the best they can with the information they have. It's interesting that the republican party only likes the CIA/FBI when they are investigating anyone but republicans.
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