The Pentagon keeps data on millennials. This is what it says

Young Americans continue to show steady interest in military service despite the improved economy and fading sense of patriotic duty that can be traced directly to 9/11, according to an analysis of Defense Department data conducted by Military Times.

In fact, internal Pentagon polls that track public opinion among the military’s target demographics — young men, in particular — show that today’s so-called millennial generation is not much different than its predecessors.

“What attracts even the millennials to military service are still largely the same reasons that attracted Generation X and the Baby Boomers to military service,” Stephanie Miller, the Pentagon’s director of accessions policy, said in an interview earlier this year. “It is things like education, the opportunity to travel, the opportunity to be part of a team, and meaningful work. It is those attractive points that are still relevant today as they were 50 years ago.”

A key indicator of interest in military service comes from the Pentagon’s “propensity” poll, in which officials ask young people ages 16 to 21 a basic question: “How likely is it that you will be serving in the military in the next few years?”

The percent who respond “probably” or “definitely” was recently pegged at 19 percent in the poll conducted last fall, the most recent data available. That’s not far from the peak of 23 percent in late 2003, when patriotic fervor surged following the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq, and yet it's far removed the historic low of 12 percent, experienced in late 2007, when pessimism about the war and high casualties dragged down public perception of military service.

“When we look at this data, we are saying it is relatively stable,” said Katherine Helland, the director of the Joint Advertising Market Research and Studies, or JAMRS, the Defense Department office that conducts these polls several times a year.

The long-term outlook

Historically, a strong private sector job market drives down young people’s interest in the military. And the Pentagon’s internal polls show that their optimism about the job market today is high, near its peak before the financial crisis of 2008.

Yet so far the economic recovery of recent years has not adversely affected propensity indicators. And the Pentagon’s polls show a different perspective on the recruiting market than one offered by Defense Secretary Ash Carter, who has repeatedly voiced concerns about the military’s ability to attract young people over the long term.
Carter has set in motion a slate of personnel reforms aimed at appealing to young people who might be put off by some aspects of traditional military careers. He calls the initiative "Force of the Future."

“Sometimes," he has said, “this system has led us to lose good people, people with skills we need, but who see better opportunities elsewhere, in places that are less rigid, slow-moving, and bureaucratic, and more agile, creative, and merit-based. And as future generations increasingly value merit and flexibility, it’s more than just a matter of retention — it’s going to be a matter of recruitment, too. We can and must fix these problems.”

The secretary has pointed to the strong recruiting that followed the 2001 terrorist attacks and questioned whether that will continue. "In the coming years, as the so-called 9/11 generation begins to leave our ranks, the Defense Department must continue to bring in talented Americans from your generation and others," he said last year when announcing his personnel reform effort.

Carter is concerned about the military’s reliance on specific regions, like the south and the “big sky” west, where young people show greater interest in the military. “We can’t keep fishing in the same old ponds,” Carter has said.
Much of his concern centers on high-tech, high-demand career fields like cyber security. And he has questioned the value of the Pentagon's polling efforts. In June, he ordered the Defense Department to develop a more robust database that can “leverage predictive analytics and micro targeting strategies.” He wants a system that is “simpler and faster to use.”

The Defense Department spends more than $1 billion annually on recruiting and advertising, according to budget data. All four services met their individual recruiting goals last year, though Army leaders have voiced concerns about the environment growing more difficult.

Despite current success, top Pentagon officials also say that several trends are making recruiters’ mission more challenging. Many young Americans know almost nothing about the military and service members' lifestyle.

When asked to name all four military services, only about half of today’s youth are to identify the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps, Miller said.

Military-civilian divide

In the 1990s, almost half of young Americans had parents with some military experience. Today that has dropped to about 15 percent, Miller said.

“This military-civilian disconnect does create this particular challenge for us,” Miller said.

Social media is also creating new complexities for recruiters. Years ago, a successful strategy entailed some television ads and sending individual recruiters out to high schools for face-to-face conversations.

Now, that’s changed as prospective recruits spend endless hours connected to smart phones.

“It is difficult to be able to get their attention in a world where social media and so many other different types of activities are pulling at their attention. It is difficult sometimes for recruiters to really prospect these candidates and connect with them in a meaningful way,” Miller said.

“At the end of the day, it is the discussion with the recruiter that really gets them to commit to military service. Again, it is harder to do that when they are on Facebook, Twitter, and various different social media platforms.”