If you aim to go to war with the Royal Navy, plan to fire the first shot in 2026—the year the British fleet could be at its weakest.
In five years under current projections, the Royal Navy will have just 10 frigates—down from 13 today—as aging Type 23 vessels decommission. The 10 frigates, plus the six Type 45 destroyers that should still be in service at the time, could struggle to meet the United Kingdom’s naval needs.
There will be aircraft carriers and amphibious ships to escort, fisheries and shipping lanes to patrol, vessels of rival fleets to shepherd near U.K. waters and at least one key territory—the Falkland Islands—to protect.
A force of 16 warships can’t possibly handle all of those tasks. Especially considering that, at any given time, just a third of the vessels will be available for operations. The others will be in maintenance or refit or working up for deployments.