Posted on Aug 19, 2018
Trump eyes Erik Prince plan to privatize U.S. war in Afghanistan
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Responses: 3
On one hand I'm thinking of the prophetic warning in Sean McFate's book, the Modern Mercenary and the turmoil caused through the ages when courtiers are your mercenary captains. He also warned of what the government could and should do vs what the military enterpriser could and should do based on efficiency and profit. On the other, we have done about everything else short of total war (no stomach for it) or installing El Presidente for Life and extorting the Afghan government into action (not how "democracies" fight wars and this TTP blew up in our faces throughout the Cold War).
The Afghan National Army and National Police could use a little splash of Executive Outcomes at the tactical and operational levels. They have no centralized support structure that western forces take for granted. This is an area that a military enterpriser PMC could really make things happen: key leadership, logistics, CAS, CCA, Fires.
The problem is when you look at the Claiswitzian relationship between the Government-Security Forces-People, the people have no national identity. The Central Government isn't. Until they can provide security, control their borders, levy taxes, deliver basic services without a patronage network they won't exercise sovereignty. Here is what is enduring: factions, tribes, clans, and families.
I think our 'nuclear option' is to start forging alliances and treaties with the strongest tribes/factions. Make them the following deal: keep the Taliban and their pals AQ and ISIS down. Start paying Intel verified bounties. Otherwise, they can do whatever they want. NATO could cut their own arrangement for heroin suppression. The leverage: if bad stuff starts springing up in God's little blind spot, then we'll be back. In force. No COIN, no Nation building. Punitive Expedition holding them and the bad guys equally responsible. Smash, kill, capture. In and out. No contracts. No enduring presence. No gravy train with biscuit wheels. What ever Mad-Maxian Post Apocolypse mess they have will be on them.
The Afghan National Army and National Police could use a little splash of Executive Outcomes at the tactical and operational levels. They have no centralized support structure that western forces take for granted. This is an area that a military enterpriser PMC could really make things happen: key leadership, logistics, CAS, CCA, Fires.
The problem is when you look at the Claiswitzian relationship between the Government-Security Forces-People, the people have no national identity. The Central Government isn't. Until they can provide security, control their borders, levy taxes, deliver basic services without a patronage network they won't exercise sovereignty. Here is what is enduring: factions, tribes, clans, and families.
I think our 'nuclear option' is to start forging alliances and treaties with the strongest tribes/factions. Make them the following deal: keep the Taliban and their pals AQ and ISIS down. Start paying Intel verified bounties. Otherwise, they can do whatever they want. NATO could cut their own arrangement for heroin suppression. The leverage: if bad stuff starts springing up in God's little blind spot, then we'll be back. In force. No COIN, no Nation building. Punitive Expedition holding them and the bad guys equally responsible. Smash, kill, capture. In and out. No contracts. No enduring presence. No gravy train with biscuit wheels. What ever Mad-Maxian Post Apocolypse mess they have will be on them.
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MAJ James Woods
It’s been awhile since I’ve read Clausewitz. What I do believe is a nation doesn’t wage war nor invade another nation unless they have a plan for after the invasion. Lets call it what it was, the invasion of Afghanistan to overthrow the little government that did exist and attempt to build something in our own image which is never ideal. Lack of planning will always lead to massive failure.
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LTC Jason Mackay
MAJ James Woods - the Clausewitz concept I was going for was the triangle formed by the military, the Government, and the people. You can't raise an Army without people and their taxes. The Government has no Army to wield with out subjects. You need all three.you don't have an Army roaming around without a government resourcing/controlling it.
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MAJ James Woods A few years ago a book re: early U S involvement in Afghanistan spoke of a SF SGT? Ortega who organized his AO into a small government. Collecting taxes and providing for the ‘general welfare’ of that AO.
Then “ ‘Big’ U S Army”, the 82nd came in country and said, “we are in charge”!
His functioning, local government disappeared!
A real Governing, government of the people, for the people, by the people is needed there. Anointed warlords are not a government!
America is unable to stop the corruption and payoffs by the wanna be officials there!
POTUS Trump needs to step in and convey the truth to the indigenous persons in Afghanistan!
Then “ ‘Big’ U S Army”, the 82nd came in country and said, “we are in charge”!
His functioning, local government disappeared!
A real Governing, government of the people, for the people, by the people is needed there. Anointed warlords are not a government!
America is unable to stop the corruption and payoffs by the wanna be officials there!
POTUS Trump needs to step in and convey the truth to the indigenous persons in Afghanistan!
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An interesting issue. What is the issue, really? We accomplished our mission there long ago. Doesn't it now seem that US forces are now employed by the Afghan government as mercenaries? If they require mercenaries let them hire actual mercenaries.
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MAJ James Woods
LTC Jason Mackay - And it was a very bad assumption. Then again, we shouldn't be making assumptions with war strategy. Besides, it's not AQ or ISIL but the Taliban that continues to create instability since we never truly planned on assimilating the remnants of the Taliban into the current government. Much like how we failed to assimilate the ousted subordinate leaders of the Hussein regime while establishing a new Iraqi government.
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LTC Jason Mackay
MAJ James Woods You have to make assumptions to continue planning they just have to be reasonable, essential, and not assume away major problems...followed up with a deliberate effort to confirm, deny or accept risk with the assumption
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MAJ James Woods
LTC Jason Mackay - Yes the follow up was a disaster especially once they realized they made bad assumptions.
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