Posted on Aug 3, 2022
What 3 past Taiwan Strait crises can teach us about U.S.-China tensions today
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https://www.npr.org/2022/08/02/ [login to see] /what-3-past-taiwan-strait-crises-can-teach-us-about-u-s-china-tensions-today
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's plane touched down in Taiwan on Tuesday evening local time. Her visit sparked warnings from mainland China, and the risk of a fourth crisis in the area known as the Taiwan Strait.
China sees Taiwan as part of its territory, and the visit by Pelosi — the highest-ranking elected U.S. official to visit the island since House Speaker Newt Gingrich 25 years ago — as a breach of its sovereignty. It also sees it as a breach of Washington's commitment to a "one-China policy," recognizing Beijing as China's sole legitimate government.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's plane touched down in Taiwan on Tuesday evening local time. Her visit sparked warnings from mainland China, and the risk of a fourth crisis in the area known as the Taiwan Strait.
China sees Taiwan as part of its territory, and the visit by Pelosi — the highest-ranking elected U.S. official to visit the island since House Speaker Newt Gingrich 25 years ago — as a breach of its sovereignty. It also sees it as a breach of Washington's commitment to a "one-China policy," recognizing Beijing as China's sole legitimate government.
What 3 past Taiwan Strait crises can teach us about U.S.-China tensions today
Posted from npr.org
China
Taiwan
World History
Posted >1 y ago
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PO1 William "Chip" Nagel
..."And Xi commands a far more powerful military than China possessed in any of the past crises. That includes three aircraft carriers. Whether or not China would deploy them, with several U.S. warships already maneuvering around the region, is a hard question to answer. Analysts say Beijing is both trying to project military strength while avoiding provoking military escalation.
"If China lets Pelosi happen and not do anything, China risks looking weak, but at the same time, Xi really needs stability at the moment, and that's why he doesn't really have a going to war option as well, because war will be the biggest risk to stability," says Wen-Ti Sung, a political science professor at the Australian National University. "It seems like he's caught in a bit of a Catch-22."
And if anyone has learned from past crises in the Taiwan Strait, Chong says, it's the people of Taiwan, who "seem somewhat nonplussed" by the latest animus.
So, if Beijing "wants to send a message" to an island that is increasingly impervious to intimidation, Chong says, "it has to keep ramping up its threat every time, until it has to actually carry out that threat, or have its bluff called.""
..."And Xi commands a far more powerful military than China possessed in any of the past crises. That includes three aircraft carriers. Whether or not China would deploy them, with several U.S. warships already maneuvering around the region, is a hard question to answer. Analysts say Beijing is both trying to project military strength while avoiding provoking military escalation.
"If China lets Pelosi happen and not do anything, China risks looking weak, but at the same time, Xi really needs stability at the moment, and that's why he doesn't really have a going to war option as well, because war will be the biggest risk to stability," says Wen-Ti Sung, a political science professor at the Australian National University. "It seems like he's caught in a bit of a Catch-22."
And if anyone has learned from past crises in the Taiwan Strait, Chong says, it's the people of Taiwan, who "seem somewhat nonplussed" by the latest animus.
So, if Beijing "wants to send a message" to an island that is increasingly impervious to intimidation, Chong says, "it has to keep ramping up its threat every time, until it has to actually carry out that threat, or have its bluff called.""
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