Posted on Oct 5, 2015
1LT William Clardy
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After our mixed track record for mistaking wedding parties in Iraq and Afghanistan for insurgent activities, and already acquiring a reputation for indifference to civilian casualties, why does it seem like our intelligence teams still either don't know or don't care about how many civilians get killed by careless (thoughtless?) targeting? Is this a de facto new standard that will be the price of our preoccupation with zeroing out American casualties?

As a related concern, how many folks here have qualms about our decision a few years ago to quietly redefine "insurgent" to include all military-age males in the target area?


http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/10/and-yemen-burns-washingtons-blessing/122521/?oref=defenseone_today_nl
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Edited 10 y ago
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COL Strategic Plans Chief
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Edited 10 y ago
Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS has it correct. That being said, there is no such thing as perfect intelligence. Anyone who demands it is a fool. Risk is left to commanders, not to congressmen or reporters. It's easy to look back at a situation, which is hard to determine from a Tactical Operations Center at 0300 in the morning and say that the commander should not have made a call. BS. If you don't want bad things to happen, don't go to war. Don't fly sorties. Don't launch drones. The only way to ensure no loss of civilian life is to keep a military away from the area. Our definition of "significant" civilian casualties has changed significantly as well. We go OUT OF OUR WAY to ensure that civilians don't get hurt. We are spending millions of dollars creating missiles that limit damage. We used to turn the mean temperature of cities in Japan to 500 degrees farenheit and call it a strategic success. I think we have come a long way in the efforts we take to reduce casualties. Anyone who demands a "no-civilian casualty" war is a fool. Moving out without the reason behind the strike is ignorant. We don't know the whole story. All we know is that civilians died. Just like last week....and a month ago...and a year ago...and 10 years ago. We do our best to control it. Sometimes (and not often) we fail. Things that explode kill people.
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
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COL (Join to see), I think that our ground-based forces do go out of their way to minimize civilian casualties.

I'm far from convinced that the folks managing air strikes not involving units in direct contact with the enemy are anywhere near as concerned. Granted, we have come a long way from when we deliberately firebombed cities full of "yellow people", but we still seem way more sanguine than we should be that the people we decide to drop bombs on need to die right now.

Also, I think it's worth mentioning that I'm not talking about incidents like the air strike this weekend where we dropped ordinance on what I suspect was an unmarked medical facility whose location we had been made aware of. I'm talking about strikes where we have limited intel and no friendlies imminently in harm's way.
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COL Strategic Plans Chief
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Understood. Intel is never perfect. Risk versus possible reward. Those decisions are weighed out by commanders. They will get it wrong sometimes. Rarely.
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Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS
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The most important and best reconnaissance asset an Intelligence Analyst has is the Infantryman.

Let me repeat, the BEST asset we have is INFANTRY. You have the most visibility. Everything else is playing second fiddle, either because of DISTANCE or TIME. Intelligence is Information which has been analyzed to provide a picture for the commander. That's it.

If we have a Squad encounter a Squad, that tells us there is likely a platoon "in the area." When another squad finds the second squad, we use that information "to build a more complete picture" like a jigsaw puzzle with half the pieces missing.

In unconventional warfare there are less pieces, and the picture is fuzzy. So, it is getting harder for Intelligence present a reasonable image. We're not fighting a ground war on this, so we're neutered on this. There is no "man on the ground."
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Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS
Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS
10 y
F6191c1b
1LT William Clardy I wish I knew. Refer to rule 4.
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
Rule 3 is pretty important, too, Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS.
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Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS
Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS
10 y
1LT William Clardy - They're all essential, but knowing your target... like if it's a wedding or a training camp....
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
As a general rule of thumb, if there's somebody actually meaning it when they ask for more PT, it's probably a wedding...

(I know, incredibly rude, lewd and socially unacceptable...)
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1stSgt Sergeant Major/First Sergeant
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I think the reason why is we have more times where the target is not being observed by a FO and fired on by drones.
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
That would be part of the price for making casualty-avoidance a strategic priority, wouldn't it 1stSgt (Join to see)?
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1stSgt Sergeant Major/First Sergeant
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1LT William Clardy, IMHO, nothing will ever replace eyes on target.
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
There's nothing that should be humble about simple truths, 1stSgt (Join to see).
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Are we getting worse at target identification?
LCDR Deputy Department Head
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What I THINK is actually happening is that terrorist/insurgents/whateveryouwanttocallthems are starting to use civilian shields more and more. I don't think we have actually targeted the hospitals/mosques/weddings/etc. I think we are targetting legitimate enemies of the state and they are taking shelter in those areas intentionally, knowing that even if they die at least the publicity will be in their favor, and also that we still ARE reluctant to target them even if the media seems to indicate otherwise.

I agree hitting a hospital or wedding is awful, however sometimes it isn't the US doing it, and other times it isn't what it seems.

Just remember for every story you see about a US strike that hit a hospital, there are 100 other stories you didn't see about the targets we didn't hit because of the civilian casualties. The reason it's news when the US does it is because it isn't the norm. When it stops being reported, then you know we've come to a new era.
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
LCDR (Join to see), are you familiar with the slang term "SWATting"?
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MCPO Roger Collins
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The only way to prevent collateral damage is to NOT shoot, bomb, or otherwise use lethal weapons. There is and always has been civilian deaths in combat. We are the most cautious of any military in the world. We take casualties while protecting civilians and don't complain (with a few notable exceptions). This can not be accomplished unless we have spotters on the ground directing fire. Who will be the first to go into an area filled with ISIS to direct fire?
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
I won't volunteer to be the first, MCPO Roger Collins, but that was considered part of the cost of doing business back when I was manpacking mortars.

Also, this is not just in ISIS-controlled territory, the numbers seem to be getting bigger -- in this instance, 120 civilians in a (presumably) rebel-controlled portion of Yemen (and the rebels are *not* affiliated with ISIS -- they are backed by the same Iranian government that is providing substantial military assistance to Assad in Syria).
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MCPO Roger Collins
MCPO Roger Collins
10 y
1LT William Clardy - What were the ROEs for actually firing upon the e
nmemy with your mortars? What were the ROEs used by the pilots when they attacked? I know what they have been up to this point and they were onerous to a fault when it came to civilians or suspected civilians. I personally do not know a single person in the military that would intentionally attack a known hospital, unless it was convincingly known to be a danger to our troops or the Afgan troops. Hopefully, we will know the answer once the investigation is completed. Funny how the human rights groups come after our people for lending aid to the Aftans, yet have little problem with the thousands being killed and tortured by the Taliban and ISIS.
"We have met the enemy and he isw us" POGO
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SCPO David Lockwood
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Looks as though our Intel or lack of needs much improvement.
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
I would think so, too, SCPO David Lockwood, but we've been bombing weddings for a decade or so already. At some point, the questions have to be asked whether we even *want* to learn how to do better, and, if we do, *can* our intel folks learn to meet that standard?
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SCPO David Lockwood
SCPO David Lockwood
10 y
1LT William Clardy - That's a good point. But then how many of the enemy were at those weddings? If there were a number of the enemy there, do count the collateral damage as acceptable?
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
That can be some very harsh math, SCPO David Lockwood.

If you take out a terrorist leader by firing a Hellfire into his car while he's driving to a religious service, how acceptable are the deaths of his wife and children as collateral damage?
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SSG Ed Mikus
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The question we should ask is how is the enemy getting better at disguising what's really going on
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1LT William Clardy
1LT William Clardy
10 y
SSG Ed Mikus, is that really the case? There are too many instances where even we have conceded that a wedding really was what was going on when the bombs rained down.
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