Army BCT: Drop Rate between Red and White Phase - what do you think is the cause?

The Army spends a very large amount of money trying to answer your question, and still hasn't.

I'm sure some older types will blame the "entitled millennial generation." But the reality has always been that there simply are some people who cannot handle the military, always has been, always will be, even if they're qualified for it. Most people- not just these darn millennials- have never handled the unique stresses that the military brings, and some just aren't cut out for it.

Every company has people drop- and I'm betting your sons company is nothing special, those Facebook groups always make me chuckle with parents commenting about THE HUGE NUMBER AND SO MANY PEOPLE HAVING PROBLEMS OMG THE ARMY IS MESSING UP...when in reality, 10-20 drops is absolutely normal for a BCT company. I usually advise parents not to get involved with them, because they present a seriously skewed picture of reality.

It may be as simple as, the service has made it easier to quit, put less effort and time in to retaining.
Its a tough call on a DS part to decide, is this one I stop working with, and let them quit, It would be better for both them and the service vice, "If I can only get them to hang in a bit longer, they will learn what that can take, endure, and realize that CAN make it, thus be better for it..."
Many moons ago when I was a DS, its was a numbers game to some point... Early in the cycle the BN would support a entry level separation (ELS) pretty much upon submission. "SM you want to go home? Yes? Ok there is your bus ticket, off you go"
And while "numbers" were not mentioned in front of company level cadre (that I know of), we all knew there was a magic number the BN CDR needed to graduate to be considered a success by his superiors, and falling below that was seen as a failure on his part (meaning his cadre) to train the SM properly.
So later in cycle (as the BN/BDE/ neared its "number" an ELS package had to have serious justification and even then, the SM was often moved to another company, or even recycled more than once.
The DS knew we did no one a favor by retaining those SM... The SM was set up for failure at their future unit, and the unit was set up for issues now having to deal with an SM that was not adapting, be it mentally, discipline issues, training inability, physicality weakness.
But going over the "number" was not something you could get the BN to do with ease .. AWOL maybe, physical attack on a fellow SM, only if it was a near deadly attack or sexual in nature.

Perhaps the Army came to its senses and decided it was better (cheaper even) to have fewer fully qualified SM at the end of the cycle, then passing on marginal at best SM to a unit, only to be separated later.

(Join to see) Good question. I went through Marine Corps Boot Camp, which is different than BCT. My father was an Air Force Captain and he was killed when his plane crashed in a training accident. He had served in WWII and Korea. I was seven at the time, and my mother died when I was 15. I joined because I thought it was the right thing to do. Boot Camp was a culture shock, but I would have died before quitting. You raised your children to finish what they start. As your son mentioned, it sucks, but it is temporary. Some of these other kids have probably not been taught to always finish what you start.