Posted on Jul 13, 2016
Is Hillary Clinton’s victory supposedly a sure thing.?
1.6K
18
23
2
2
0
But there’s just one problem: There’s no such thing as a sure thing. And few things are so dangerous as something that “everyone” — or even “the experts” — knows.
The fact that “there is no such thing as a sure thing” is something that everybody knows in theory but too many forget in practice.
The fact that “there is no such thing as a sure thing” is something that everybody knows in theory but too many forget in practice.
Posted in these groups: 
Hillary Clinton
Election 2016
Hillary Clinton Election 2016
Edited >1 y ago
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 5
2
2
0
Wishful thinking. That's all it is. Everyone is guilty. I'm waiting for the election results. Either way, I don't see much reason to celebrate, but if Trump wins, at least I won't be grieving for America
(2)
(0)
Sgt Tom Cunnally
Clinton leads 45 - 40.7 with Real Clear Average which is considered the one of the credible Polls...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
(0)
(0)
CPT Jack Durish
Sgt Tom Cunnally - Ah, the polls. They haven't been doing so well in recent decades have they? Here, let me save you the price of a few newspapers. There will be a bump for Trump following the RNC Convention. Then a bump for Hillary following the DNC Convention. Then there'll be some jockeying all summer as everyone catches their breaths. In the end the polls will be indicating a win for Hillary until the day of the election. It's a propaganda device known as the "Bandwagon" effect. Everyone likes to be associated with a winner and many fools cast their vote for the presumptive winner just to be able to brandish their wisdom. Sadly, pollsters aren't subject to the same restrictions that dictate that election results can't be broadcast until all of the polls are closed.
(1)
(0)
1
1
0
She is favored to win, but by no means guaranteed. She has the advantage just because of the delegate math of blue vs. red states, but it will still be decided by a few swing states in the end.
(1)
(0)
Sgt Tom Cunnally
LTC (Join to see) - Be interested to see if Trump gets a bump after his RNC convention because it is expected to be a wild and crazy event.
(0)
(0)
Sgt Tom Cunnally
LTC (Join to see) - Don't forget we have the debates which could be critical if the race is close??
(0)
(0)
LTC (Join to see)
Sgt Tom Cunnally - Yes it will. Traditionally both candidates get a bump of about 10%, which evens out, but sometimes something at the convention really resonates and the bump for one (or more accurately hit on the other) is larger.
In 2012 Bill Clinton delivered an exceptional speech that probably resulted in a larger than normal bump for Obama, while Romney's "47%" gaffe was recent enough to still be hurting him, along with a lackluster convention resulting in a smaller than usual bump. If I recall, 2008 was pretty even, as was 2000. 2004 had the whole "Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth" smear campaign that hurt Kerry's bounce, and by the time it was exposed as total bullshit it was too close to the election to matter.
My guess is the raucousness will affect Trump's bounce, but who knows if it will be a positive or a negative. Trump is a showman, so he may profit from it. I hope not, but so far everything has happened as it shouldn't this year.
In 2012 Bill Clinton delivered an exceptional speech that probably resulted in a larger than normal bump for Obama, while Romney's "47%" gaffe was recent enough to still be hurting him, along with a lackluster convention resulting in a smaller than usual bump. If I recall, 2008 was pretty even, as was 2000. 2004 had the whole "Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth" smear campaign that hurt Kerry's bounce, and by the time it was exposed as total bullshit it was too close to the election to matter.
My guess is the raucousness will affect Trump's bounce, but who knows if it will be a positive or a negative. Trump is a showman, so he may profit from it. I hope not, but so far everything has happened as it shouldn't this year.
(1)
(0)
LTC (Join to see)
Sgt Tom Cunnally - Debates usually push the polls as well, another reason why maps and odds at this early point are meaningless.
(0)
(0)
0
0
0
I'm a firm believe in that it is not over until the "Fat Lady Sings" and it is still a long way until November.
(0)
(0)
Read This Next
Continue with Facebook 
Continue with Google