Posted on May 27, 2015
MAJ Forscom Strategy Team
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Promotion rate
I have some friends who are up for the FY15 LTC Army Competitive Category (ACC) board. The **rumor** is that the board results were pulled back because promotion rates were below 50%. Compare this to the 2012 story below where promotion rates to LTC were 83%. Is this the "new normal"? Why would promotion rates be so low? Is reduced force structure to blame? Too many O-5s and O-6s still on active duty? Is the Army trying to get rid of the generation that fought the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

http://archive.armytimes.com/article/20120729/NEWS/207290315/O-5-selections-plummet-lowest-rate-decade
Posted in these groups: Officers logo OfficersStar PromotionsB647c975 LTCArmymaj MAJUnited states army logo Army
Edited 10 y ago
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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Hearing that the results were scheduled for release prior to 29 May, but were delayed, and now are expected to be released in the second half of June.
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MAJ Forscom Strategy Team
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10 y
Here is to hoping Im completely off base.
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MAJ Knowledge Management Specialist
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Still better then the August I am telling myself. :-)
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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HRC seems to be (surprisingly!) having a difficult time with messaging on this. Most recently, hearing that the delay might be until July or August, or maybe later. Also, the FY16 LTC promotion board is scheduled for November 2015.

Analysis: it seems there might be a chance that the MILPER for the FY16 board comes out before the results of the FY15 board are released (as the MILPER is supposed to come out 90 days before the board convene date).
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CW4 Brigade Maintenance Technician
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Great post and this is very relevant to the Warrant Officer cohort as well. Promotions starting in 2012 saw a sharp decrease in the percentage of promotions per MOS and rank. This has happen partly because of the downsizing of the Army as a whole. Also, for Warrant Officers, promotions and accessions were very high for about 10 years during the height of OEF/OIF and this has caused a bottle neck between the CW3/4/5 ranks and now we are severely over strength in many MOS's causing current promotions to be lower than normal. For example, prior to 2012, promotions to CW3 across the board were in the 80% range with some MOS's promoting at a 95% rate or better compared to 64% for last year’s board and 54% for my MOS as an example. As a plan to help fix this issue, between 2012 and 2014, the year groups considered for those promotions boards were reduce from 12 months to 8, also any 2 time non-selects were actually being forced to retire, attempt to receive the TERA retirement option or to separate. In years past, many 2 time non-selects were given SELCON status for an additional 3 years or more. For this year’s board, the 12 month year group for consideration was brought back and the zones for promotion has shifted to the right. Now each Warrant Officer will get their primary zone look at 4 years TIG and pin on in 5 and there are no below the zone looks. Every senior Warrant Officer from the BDE level all the way up to DA believe that it will be this way for a while.
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LTC Substitute Teacher
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That is unfortunate when the military draws down after a war. Same thing after Vietnam. The young Lts. And Cpts. who are battle seasoned get the shaft. It also hurts the military then the next conflict comes we have to build up and train troops.
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SSG Laureano Pabon
SSG Laureano Pabon
10 y
Thank you for sharing that Sir, while after the Vietnam war, there was a 300% pay increase and an all new volunteer army, promotion was not that fast, keeping people in was a task. Until the Regan Administration, That was when the down sizing began. Getting promoted was not hard, but the promotion points where so high it was not easy. next was retirement, Post Nam vets were allowed to retire after 20 years of service, the Regan Administration changed that to 30 years. Then when it came time to retire after 20 years you can get your retirement pay, after the 20 years changed to 30 years you could start collecting your retirement when your on your 70's and not like before after you retire. During my time as all this occurred, there was an early release program that became mandatory. All for the purpose of budget cuts. Now a day I see allot of this happening again to our service members. What remains is the retirement from 20 to 30, and retirement pay from after retiring to your early 70's.
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Maj Chris Nelson
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I feel that it is the same type of thing that has happened in the past.... Slash and burn..... "done" with war, cut the numbers..... do it NOW. Then, in a year or 2, they will discover that they cut the numbers so effectively, that "oh shit.... we need more" Air Force is doing it also... I think every branch has done it before, doing it now/soon, and will do it again in the future.
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MAJ Raúl Rovira
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The Army is shrinking and this is out of our circles of control or influence. Promotions vary regardless what DOPMA states (Defense Officer Personnel Management Act). 70% for LTC. It can be higher in war as we have seen and it will certainly be low during reductions just like the rate last year.

I tell folks, if you are a non-select on the PZ board start ACAP so when the AZ results come out you are not at -6 months.

On the positive side, there are so many fortunate officers that in the event of twice non select, but over 15 years of service, they can retire under TERA until SEP 2018.

In the end, this is the reality of where we are at now.
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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Good point on TERA being valid through Sep 18.
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LTC Senior Estimator
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I can almost guarantee that at least part of that is due to lack of completion of the appropriate level of PME. Last I heard, your file can still be seen by the board with a waiver, but that's no guarantee that you'll be selected if you don't have that graduation certificate.
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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Good info, thanks for sharing. I've always been nervous about the fact that I did a foreign school in lieu of US Army ILE and whether this will be a discriminator. Unfortunately, the Army doesn't tell folks why they don't get promoted----hopefully the message is out to younger ygs that this is a major discriminator.
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COL Vincent Stoneking
COL Vincent Stoneking
10 y
Every year, the field-grade Officer board results tell a very similar tale: first-look fully ed qual Officers do significantly better than those who are not. I was looking at the LTC board results for either 07 or 08 when I was a MAJ and the selection rate was something like 104% (meaning they grabbed some BZ guys/gals), but was around 60-70% for the general population. I'll see if I can dig up a recent board AAR.

Going back to what I was told in ROTC and was reinforced over and over again throughout my career, "You are your own best career manger. Nobody else cares as much." Also heard without the "as much..." The administrative Army will make some effort, and your command will too, if it is good (When I was a BN CDR I held regular "how the system really works" OPDs. At first I was surprised to find out that many younger Officers were unaware that the Army publishes a "career map" for every branch...). But if you slip through the cracks, it will ALWAYS be viewed as "your own fault."

During the wars, there has been an attitude that "if the Army wants me to do X, they will tell me/send me." A peacetime Army isn't going to be a success for people with that attitude. I know we're big on admonishing people to not be "careerists", but the bottom line really is that your career is more important to you than it is to the Army.
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COL Vincent Stoneking
COL Vincent Stoneking
10 y
Slide1
Slide2
So I wasn't able to find the exact slideshow I intended (and I may have mis-remembered, anyway...) However, the two attached slides are representative of my point (they come a PPT that can be found on AKO called "US Army Officer Selection Boards")

What you want to note - for EVERY rank and year group are just a few things:
1. "FT CONS ED Q%" is the percentage of those who were considered educationally qualified on their first look.
2. The percentage that were selected by the board overall (select/cons). This is BZ, PZ, AZ combined, ed qual or not.

Taking the "TO LTC" 2005 numbers, the board selected 52% overall (select/cons), but 91% of FT Ed Qual. Looked at another way, FT Ed Qual maded 1208 of the 1470, or 82% of ALL MAJ selected for LTC.

By... Math...that means that all other categories, Not Ed Qual, BZ, AND AZ fought for that other 18%, or 262 slots.

It is also worth noting that for each year recorded, the board failed to meet its selection objective - In other words, if COULD have promoted MORE if the candidates had met ALL criteria.

For COL boards (the ones I really care about!!), FT Ed qual have roughly DOUBLE the chance of promotion than the "general population, and make up about 70% of the selected population, despite being under half the considered population. This is especially notable as you can continue to go before the COL board right up until your MRD, in other words it has a HUGE AZ population, but the same pattern holds.

If one wants to be promoted, they MUST be Ed Qual on their FIRST look. And MOST are not.

These stats will be skewed somewhat because they are RC numbers, and may well include people in the IRR, etc...

However, I would be surprised if this pattern did not hold both for the AC and today.
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LTC Chief, Relocation Plans
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How is it the Army's job to make sure someone goes to a school, particularly one that can be attended in multiple venues? Captains can enroll in ILE if they're willing to do the distance course; but I watched multiple of my colleagues be the last ones to attend -- pinning on LTC while at ILE during the period when all AC MAJs attended ILE. While some had significant deployment histories, there were many who had simply schlepped out of it, pushing it off in hopes the requirement would somehow "go away."
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SSG Roger Ayscue
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Very Simple.

The Army will loose way way too many good leaders who put mission ahead of politics who will be let go, and too many that punched their tickets will be retained.

Then, we will get our asses kicked, too many good men will die, until we train and develop good leaders again. We do this all the time, GUT THE MILITARY in favor of some social program that will neither ensure our security NOR WILL IT solve any societal problem. We should gut Socialist Bull crap and maintain the strongest military that we can grow.

Leaders are grown and not born and we tend to loose great ones every time they want to cash in on "The Peace Dividend"
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LTC Bink Romanick
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It's the same old story..too many officers too few slots. I went thru this at least 3 times..post VN, following the collapse of the USSR and following ODS..I got lucky. But I did spend 7 yrs TIG as a a Major.
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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7 yrs tig as a major now would mean you were selected bz for ltc. Yg 99 is Pz for this board, the majority selected will pin ltc at more than 7 tig
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LTC Bink Romanick
LTC Bink Romanick
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I thought that I was slow...I guess i was lucky...thank you.
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LTC Veterinary Comparative Medicine
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In the Veterinary Corps, the 2014 Selection Board promoted five out of 17 in PZ (29%), two AZ, one BZ. Overall, that's less than half the historical total. Since the VC doesn't parse out by AOC, three of those eight were 64D (pathologists), even though the VC is overstrength on 64D LTCs. Two of them went into PhD programs where they will be leading nobody for three out of the next five years before their PZ look. I'm unfortunately in very large and good company. I estimated about 22 PZ this year and 31 AZ, but the rule of thumb of half the PZ+AZ is not likely to apply, leading to another abysmal year. Oh yeah, and today is day 110 since the Board recessed. The only silver lining in the VC is that most are getting SELCON. Mine is to 24 years, which means they need me to stay in with the PhD and board certification in veterinary preventive medicine, they just don't want to pay me as an O-5 for it. MRT anyone? Five ACOMs in a row, Army Acquisition Corps with two level 3 certifications, Iraq deployment, and I'm not hopeful.
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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Well, if you aren't getting promoted with that record, the rest of us have no hope at all.
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LTC Yinon Weiss
LTC Yinon Weiss
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Thank you for the context and the background. Those numbers sound harsh. It will be interesting to see how this plays out across the different MOS field.
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SGM Bill Frazer
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Promotions go down when force structure goes down- fewer troops=fewer Officers. It is simple.
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LTC Lockhart Simpson
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Promotion rates in the Active Army have always been cyclical. The rate was high a few years ago because of the wars. Now we are in a time of cutback. The selection rate for Major has been below 60% and above 90%.
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SPC Ron Hines
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Smaller army less promotions
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LTC Andrae Evans
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The old normal is back. It is unheard of to move from LT to MAJ in eight years. We are paying that price now. For this war, where attrition was so low, there was no need to increase the pace of promotion following 9-11. What it mean to those in this year group should another conflict arise is that they will be looked at as slugs since they did not rocket through the ranks. Yes, it is stupid, but the military has never been about quality just image. We will suffer because we will have convinced young brash officers that the actually know what they are doing, and we will offer their souls to the god of ignorance and overconfidence just as we have for the last 14 years. Our political system will also pay the price as the decision they make will cause and have caused unwarranted CIVCAS, diplomatic missteps, organization failures, and billions of dollars in misappropriated funds like the gas station in Afghanistan, and the many unbuilt schools or failed wells. The officer core today is delusional. Those promoted are not the best, or the brightest, or the bravest. We must do a better job than picking our buddys and roommates, or the guy I trust because he looks like me, to lead our Nation into the abyss the future holds. Now I will read the article.
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CAPT Kevin B.
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Most seem to be nailing the force reduction piece. In my viewpoint over the past 40+ years, 83% to O-5 is real fat. Flow points in stabilized times were 75% to O-4, 60% to O-5, and 40% to O-6. Although I was staff corps, our rates were tied to the unrestricted line numbers. The worse end I saw was a 15% promotion to O-4 for YG-76-77 as Big Navy pushed a bunch of O-3 Surface Warfare Officers in and push-buttoned them. So those who spent 10 years doing great work got tossed. That came back to haunt the system as corporate experience took a dive. Two things happen on downsizing with the zones. The percentage gets dropped and also the width at times. I've seen 6-9 month zones with precepts for no above/below picks. I've also seen promotables stay that way for 2+ years because there were no billets. That torques some off so they leave, but that reduces the pressure on those still in. Military members have less "protection" than civil service given no bump or retreat options. Put me in the got tossed category.
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MSG Robert Mills
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Ya think they are trying to do that lol what's your first clue Sir? Trying? ohh no They are doing it. But that's fine, there is a shit ton of COL's, LTC's that need to be told don't go away mad, just go away. The same holds true for some enlisted as well.
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LTC Nancy Bodyk (Retired)
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It's called being in the midst of a draw down. The same thing happened after Desert Storm. I came in at the tail end of the Reduction in Force after Desert Storm. The promotion rates were very low as a result. The positive for my year group is it created shortages that followed me up through my career so the promotion rates for MAJ and LTC were very high, plus add in two wars and a temporary increase in strength and the rates were above 90%. Yes, the military will make cuts to the minimum level and it will result in another year group shortage. It goes in cycles.
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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Overall promotion rate of 61% for PZ, total promotion selection rate of 70% (including AZ and BZ numbers). Some branches and functional areas WAY below the average, though. I haven't seen the final breakout of data on by-MOS promotion rates; does anyone have one? I'd also note that its easier to get promoted to colonel in some MOSs than to LTC (ie, some MOSs had higher promotion rates to COL than to LTC).
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SSG Kenneth Lanning
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50%? Wow; officers have it good O.o
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SFC(P) Counterintelligence (CI) Agent
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This is a personal viewpoint, but the military seems to have more flag officers than during WWII, when we were at one point in time, fighting on three different continents/regions of the world, with more service members than we have seen since. Things worked out fine. Have things gotten that more complex that we need that many more officers? I understand that the world is much more complex and dynamic, and we may never fight a conventional WWII style war ever again, but I think low promotion rates in general, for officers and enlisted, are a good thing. It seperates the outstanding servicemembers from the mediocre/awful ones.
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SGT Lawrence Corser
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trying to rcp people?
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SGT Robert Hawks
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With the downsizing there will be less opportunity at all the senior ranks from senior NCOs to Field Grade officers saw the same concerns in 1996 and 1997 during the downsizing under President Clinton many majors where QMPed for not making LTC as where many SSG's and SFC's for not be promoted in a timely manner I know that some regulations regarding retention have change since then but I would still say with the services shrinking due to budget cuts promotion will become very competitive and harder to achieve.
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MAJ Knowledge Management Specialist
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I've been telling myself I will know in August. I hadn't heard any rumors about this list one way or another.
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MAJ FAO - Europe
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I heard end of May, beginning of June, which seems to coincide with the rumor posted here.
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MAJ Knowledge Management Specialist
MAJ (Join to see)
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I thought it was released in July last year. That's why I don't want to get excited until August.
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MAJ Signal Officer
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Yeah July was the time frame last year (I believe they had to go back and do a administrative or legal review) but I have not heard anything one way or the other yet
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MAJ Knowledge Management Specialist
MAJ (Join to see)
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Having spent last summer worrying about a board, I refuse to worry about this one. If the Army promotes me, great! If they don't, I have another look before retiring.
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