CRISTOBAL WATCH/WARNING INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
801 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2020

.TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Cristobal does not have a
classic tropical cyclone structure, probably due to interaction with
a mid- to upper-level trough and the associated entrainment of dry
air. The circulation is elongated north-south near the center, and
multiple low-cloud swirls are preset. In addition, the strongest
convection is well removed from the center of Cristobal to the north
and east. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on earlier
scatterometer data and continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is now 350/12. There is no change in the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A south to north
steering flow between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic
and the aforementioned trough over the western Gulf of Mexico
should cause Cristobal to continue moving generally northward for
the next 36 h or so. This motion should take the center of the
storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. Around the
landfall time, a slight turn to the northwest is expected as a
mid-level ridge moves across the central and eastern U.S. to the
north of the cyclone. Overall, the models remain in good
agreement, although the GFS and ECMWF have shifted a little to the
left of their previous forecasts. The new official forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and lies near the various
consensus models.

Cristobal is expected to slowly strengthen until it makes landfall
along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days. However, the
broad structure of the cyclone, the dry air entrainment, and
moderate wind shear should prevent a significant amount of
intensification. One change from the previous forecast is that the
global models suggest that Cristobal will undergo extratropical
transition over the upper Mississippi River valley in about 4 days,
and it should persist a little longer than previously forecast.

Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it
makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the
exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and
rainfall will extend well to the east of the center.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Additional rainfall from Cristobal will
continue to slowly subside, however life threatening flash floods
and mudslides will still be possible into Saturday. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening
storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other
portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge
Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night
along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds
will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals
center.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast,
from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with
areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on
the smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs
over portions of the Mid-South and Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.8N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.0N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.8N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 28.8N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 08/1800Z 33.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 36.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 45.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0900 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 13(17) 8(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)

MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)

GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 17(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47)

STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 21(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

BURAS LA 34 1 15(16) 46(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 24 49(73) 11(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 5( 5) 42(47) 16(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 16 53(69) 11(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 28(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 5( 5) 34(39) 16(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 21(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)

FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18)

LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)

CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)

JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)

KEESLER AB 34 X 10(10) 28(38) 10(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TNT33 KNHC 061158
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 90.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the
central Gulf of Mexico today, and will be near the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move
inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday morning, and across
Arkansas Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slow strengthening is forecast until landfall
occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once
Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Indian Pass FL including Mobile Bay and
Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft
Indian Pass FL to Aripeka FL...2-4 ft
Aripeka FL to Marco Island FL including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Morgan City LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late
tonight or Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central
Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast.
Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast. Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley,
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches,
are expected. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash
flooding, and widespread flooding on smaller order streams is
possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan...Additional 1 to 3
inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Considering the heavy
rain that has already fallen, any additional rainfall would continue
the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur on Sunday across southern
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

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https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lch#hti