Posted on Feb 17, 2023
Gen. David Petraeus: How the war in Ukraine will end | CNN
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Edited >1 y ago
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An informative read. I'm surprised anyone talked with him. Even more surprised that CNN remembered him.
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CPT Lawrence Cable
Do you think he is right? I don't. I look at the daily map provided by ISW, so certainly not a pro-Russian site, and it continues to show advances by the Russians in Luhansk and Donetsk. Even following the regular news, it's apparent that the Russians aren't out of missiles or artillery shells, but more importantly, they seem to be able target the infrastructure accurately and at will. Ukraine seems to be willing to push troops into Bakhmut, which may be the reason Russia has felt a corridor open.
I think it is very dangerous to believe the Russians are stupid. They fought WWII under worse circumstances and worse leadership.
Our own intelligence agencies have had a bad habit of feeding the Media the party line, and Petraeus is ex-CIA as well as ex-Army.
I think it is very dangerous to believe the Russians are stupid. They fought WWII under worse circumstances and worse leadership.
Our own intelligence agencies have had a bad habit of feeding the Media the party line, and Petraeus is ex-CIA as well as ex-Army.
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Bergen asks: So, do we not have to worry about Russia as a “great power” anymore?
Seems to me that is two questions. The reasons stated for not worrying about Russia seem to be all the reason for worrying about Russia.
And as far as Russia being a "great power" - isn't that in the eye of the beholder? The relevance might be considered in light of the Russia and China relationship when combined with the quote attributed to Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own” seems pertinent.
Then there is the unstated part our nation is playing in that repetitive Russia/Ukraine drama which with our China relationship, together, are likely to continue draining our coffers, due to us pouring funds and equipment into Ukraine, and our cost for reacting to China's more or less low-level (so far) harassment and threats to nations bordering the South China Sea. Then there is the balloon which may or may not have blown off course trying to keep track of the progress of the new Marine base being built in Guam. Add to that our seeming paranoia of blaming China for any and all cyber harassment (which is not only from China). Of course the American public is likely to become increasingly more riled up about our of taxes being used for the protection of other nations from both Russia and China.<sigh>
One question not asked is: How long will the current status quo continue? How long will this be going on? The framework within which the question exists is in remembering that Russia was in Afghanistan 10 years, before U.S. was there longer; with little or no change in Afghanistan either time which history told us, and still tells us, does not happen. History also confirms that Russia considers Ukraine to be part of Russia and periodically turns Ukraine into Russian territory. Then Ukraine gains its independence from Russia for a short amount of time. Has it ever been more than 10 years? It has been a never-ending cycle throughout many centuries, often with other invaders of Ukraine having lead to Ukraine choosing to once again be part of Russia. And, as usual, some in Ukraine prefer Russian rule, same as currently. How is the dynamic between only Russia and Ukraine different this time?
As General Petraeus points out about the seeming controlling factor that applies to Russia, currently - it also applies to Russia throughout history. To paraphrase: its kleptocratic dictators who embrace innumerable grievances and extreme revanchist views severely undermine their decision-making.
from the interview:
"Bergen: So, do we not have to worry about Russia as a “great power” anymore?
Petraeus: Not at all. Russia still has enormous military capacity and is certainly still a nuclear superpower, as well as a country with enormous energy, mineral and agricultural blessings. It also has a population (about 145 million) that is nearly double that of the next largest European countries (Germany and Turkey, each just more than 80 million).
And it is still led by a kleptocratic dictator who embraces innumerable grievances and extreme revanchist views that severely undermine his decision-making."
Seems to me that is two questions. The reasons stated for not worrying about Russia seem to be all the reason for worrying about Russia.
And as far as Russia being a "great power" - isn't that in the eye of the beholder? The relevance might be considered in light of the Russia and China relationship when combined with the quote attributed to Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own” seems pertinent.
Then there is the unstated part our nation is playing in that repetitive Russia/Ukraine drama which with our China relationship, together, are likely to continue draining our coffers, due to us pouring funds and equipment into Ukraine, and our cost for reacting to China's more or less low-level (so far) harassment and threats to nations bordering the South China Sea. Then there is the balloon which may or may not have blown off course trying to keep track of the progress of the new Marine base being built in Guam. Add to that our seeming paranoia of blaming China for any and all cyber harassment (which is not only from China). Of course the American public is likely to become increasingly more riled up about our of taxes being used for the protection of other nations from both Russia and China.<sigh>
One question not asked is: How long will the current status quo continue? How long will this be going on? The framework within which the question exists is in remembering that Russia was in Afghanistan 10 years, before U.S. was there longer; with little or no change in Afghanistan either time which history told us, and still tells us, does not happen. History also confirms that Russia considers Ukraine to be part of Russia and periodically turns Ukraine into Russian territory. Then Ukraine gains its independence from Russia for a short amount of time. Has it ever been more than 10 years? It has been a never-ending cycle throughout many centuries, often with other invaders of Ukraine having lead to Ukraine choosing to once again be part of Russia. And, as usual, some in Ukraine prefer Russian rule, same as currently. How is the dynamic between only Russia and Ukraine different this time?
As General Petraeus points out about the seeming controlling factor that applies to Russia, currently - it also applies to Russia throughout history. To paraphrase: its kleptocratic dictators who embrace innumerable grievances and extreme revanchist views severely undermine their decision-making.
from the interview:
"Bergen: So, do we not have to worry about Russia as a “great power” anymore?
Petraeus: Not at all. Russia still has enormous military capacity and is certainly still a nuclear superpower, as well as a country with enormous energy, mineral and agricultural blessings. It also has a population (about 145 million) that is nearly double that of the next largest European countries (Germany and Turkey, each just more than 80 million).
And it is still led by a kleptocratic dictator who embraces innumerable grievances and extreme revanchist views that severely undermine his decision-making."
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