Posted on Feb 18, 2023
Did an F-22 shoot down an Illinois hobby group's small radio balloon?
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https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/ [login to see] /pico-balloon-k9yo
Did a superpower showdown provoke the U.S. into using a fighter jet to shoot down a hobbyist group's research balloon in Canada? That's the question the public — and the FBI — wants to answer, after the U.S. military shot down several unidentified airborne objects last weekend.
A military spokesperson tells NPR it's their understanding that the FBI has spoken to the hobbyist group in question — the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade, based just north of Chicago — in an apparent attempt to determine whether their small balloon might have inadvertently caused a big ruckus.
Did a superpower showdown provoke the U.S. into using a fighter jet to shoot down a hobbyist group's research balloon in Canada? That's the question the public — and the FBI — wants to answer, after the U.S. military shot down several unidentified airborne objects last weekend.
A military spokesperson tells NPR it's their understanding that the FBI has spoken to the hobbyist group in question — the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade, based just north of Chicago — in an apparent attempt to determine whether their small balloon might have inadvertently caused a big ruckus.
Did an F-22 shoot down an Illinois hobby group's small radio balloon?
Posted from npr.org
Canada
Flying
Radio
Hobbies
Chicago
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 3
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Probably, but if it hadn't you would have had Trumpublicans all over the interwebs speculating that their hobby was biological warfare.
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PO1 William "Chip" Nagel Damned if you don't... damned if you do.
...""98% certainty" that it's the same balloon, an expert says
"Before the Yukon balloon was shot down, us amateurs were watching [K9YO-15] go towards Alaska," Dan Bowen, a stratospheric balloon consultant, told NPR.
Bowen, who 12 years ago helped to research and design small balloons like the one used by the Illinois club, says he and others were using a tracking website to follow K9YO-15. The tool also gives a forecast of a wandering balloon's likely path.
When the prediction showed K9YO-15 heading from Alaska over the Yukon, Bowen said, "we really hoped it wouldn't be intercepted. But we knew the moment that the intercept was reported, whose it was and which one it was."
Asked if he believes the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade's balloon was shot down, Bowen didn't hesitate.
"Yes. Absolutely," he said. "You know, I would say with 98% certainty."
A spokesperson for NORAD, the joint U.S.-Canadian military organization, told NPR on Friday that from their understanding, the FBI has spoken with the balloon hobby club.
Representatives from the FBI and NORAD told NPR on Friday that they have no new information to provide, with the FBI saying that "the overall recovery operation is ongoing." But Canadian officials said Friday that they called off the operation after they searched the "highest probability area" without success. "Given the snowfall that has occurred, the decreasing probability the object will be found and the current belief the object is not tied to a scenario that justifies extraordinary search efforts," the Royal Canadian Mounted Police said it was terminating the search."...
...""98% certainty" that it's the same balloon, an expert says
"Before the Yukon balloon was shot down, us amateurs were watching [K9YO-15] go towards Alaska," Dan Bowen, a stratospheric balloon consultant, told NPR.
Bowen, who 12 years ago helped to research and design small balloons like the one used by the Illinois club, says he and others were using a tracking website to follow K9YO-15. The tool also gives a forecast of a wandering balloon's likely path.
When the prediction showed K9YO-15 heading from Alaska over the Yukon, Bowen said, "we really hoped it wouldn't be intercepted. But we knew the moment that the intercept was reported, whose it was and which one it was."
Asked if he believes the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade's balloon was shot down, Bowen didn't hesitate.
"Yes. Absolutely," he said. "You know, I would say with 98% certainty."
A spokesperson for NORAD, the joint U.S.-Canadian military organization, told NPR on Friday that from their understanding, the FBI has spoken with the balloon hobby club.
Representatives from the FBI and NORAD told NPR on Friday that they have no new information to provide, with the FBI saying that "the overall recovery operation is ongoing." But Canadian officials said Friday that they called off the operation after they searched the "highest probability area" without success. "Given the snowfall that has occurred, the decreasing probability the object will be found and the current belief the object is not tied to a scenario that justifies extraordinary search efforts," the Royal Canadian Mounted Police said it was terminating the search."...
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There is no system for tracking or identifying the assorted high altitude research balloons launched by various private companies and "hobbyist" groups. None of these high altitude balloons are what the general public would consider a "small balloon" except in the legal sense meeting the weight limit of FAA regulations. There really isn't any way to tell a hobbyist or private research balloon from a "spy" balloon.
After all the jabbering about the so-called "Chinese Spy Balloon" I suspect that the FAA will need to publish new regulations for high altitude research balloons and the government will need to spend a few billion creating a new bureaucracy to keep track of them.
After all the jabbering about the so-called "Chinese Spy Balloon" I suspect that the FAA will need to publish new regulations for high altitude research balloons and the government will need to spend a few billion creating a new bureaucracy to keep track of them.
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