Analysis: Islamic State expanded operations in Somalia in 2018 | FDD's Long War Journal

"Renewed Shabaab efforts against the rival jihadist group is a good indication that ISS is indeed expanding more into southern Somalia. That said, Shabaab’s proven track record in dealing with any potential threat to its monopoly on jihadist violence will likely not bode well for ISS in the long run.

In terms of specific targets, Somali security services (which includes Somali and Puntland military, police, and Puntland intelligence officers) were the main target with 52% of all claims directed towards them.

Somali intelligence forces, NISA, were the second most targeted with 25% and the Somali government 19%. Keeping with the track record established in the last two years, ISS remains hardly focused on AMISOM or other foreign troops inside Somalia. Only one claim in 2018 was against the African Union troops.

Despite claims from two different areas of the country, it is still currently unknown what the organizational connection is, if any, between Mumin’s main ISS faction in Puntland and the cells in southern Somalia. The Islamic State considers them both to be part of its organized efforts in Somalia, however, it is unknown if Mumin exercises any hierarchical control over the cells based in the country’s south."