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"Iran’s influence is also faltering in Lebanon. After years of service to the Assad dynasty, Hezbollah is now working to recover its domestic legitimacy, even pushing for the return of Saad Hariri, the Sunni leader of the anti-Iranian March 14 Alliance, to his post as prime minister. This reflects a strong desire to maintain some semblance of institutional order in Lebanon, and indicates that a war with Israel is no more in Hezbollah’s interests than it is in Iran’s.
To be sure, Iran, much like the Soviet Union, has long viewed expansion abroad as the best way to protect the revolution’s results at home. But, as both Soviet and Iranian experience has shown, failure to manage domestic challenges poses a greater threat to the regime’s legitimacy. While the future of Iran’s land corridor depends on its foreign proxies, the Islamic Republic’s future depends on its leaders’ capacity to deliver at home.
Yet Iran’s leaders seem to be placing their proxies above their citizens. Despite the failure of the 2015 nuclear deal to meet Iranians’ high economic expectations, the authorities continue to spend billions of dollars on the likes of Hezbollah, Hamas in Palestine, and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran has spent close to $10 billion in Syria alone to prop up Assad."
To be sure, Iran, much like the Soviet Union, has long viewed expansion abroad as the best way to protect the revolution’s results at home. But, as both Soviet and Iranian experience has shown, failure to manage domestic challenges poses a greater threat to the regime’s legitimacy. While the future of Iran’s land corridor depends on its foreign proxies, the Islamic Republic’s future depends on its leaders’ capacity to deliver at home.
Yet Iran’s leaders seem to be placing their proxies above their citizens. Despite the failure of the 2015 nuclear deal to meet Iranians’ high economic expectations, the authorities continue to spend billions of dollars on the likes of Hezbollah, Hamas in Palestine, and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran has spent close to $10 billion in Syria alone to prop up Assad."
Iran, the hollow hegemon | The Strategist
Posted from aspistrategist.org.au
Iran
Militia
Strategy
Terrorism
Edited 7 y ago
Posted 7 y ago
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LTC Eric Udouj Excellent Update. Hezbollah isn't Quite the Boogeyman it once was during the Civil War in Lebanon when Kidnapping was Rife.
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LTC Eric Udouj
They have been weakened in the heartland by the Civil War in Syria... and such does make for Lebanon going into play as that weakness continues.
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With the current domestic unrest now would be a good time for some state craft. The latest vanguard has directed their ire not only against the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but as well the entire political and religious establishment. I know there is a lot at stake for Iran in Syria from a national strategic perspective- as Syria served as Iran's nuclear and biological test-bed. For Hezbollah they served as a projection of force in the region that at one time created just enough instability to right Iran's geopolitical ambitions. I still think there is much left unresolved with Iran's Qud Forces. I still believe they were a participant in Libya as well as in Iraq acting as an agitator when and where needed. These guys still need to be addressed as any change in guard in Iran will end up in conflict with the Quds.
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