Posted on Apr 17, 2020
This World War II Bomber Took More Enemy Fire Than Most Others and Always Came Home
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Sometimes doctrines created in peace time are inappropriate for wars. The Army Air Force entered WWII with a very flawed doctrine bombers did not need escorts. They assumed tight formations of bombers could defend their formations. As a result, the US lost 4754 B-17s and 2112 B-24s in Europe Theater of Operations. For this reason, bomber crews dreaded each mission.
Bomber crews were told if they completed 25 missions, they could return to the US. I will make the strong assumption the crews thought it was a tall order and superstition became a part of life, but it also gave them a goal.
Many events or metrics follow a bell curve. Let's assume the average number of missions a bomber survived was 20. On the far left of the bell are planes that only lasted a few missions and the curve rises as it reaches the average of 20 missions. Then the curve goes down as the missions become greater. Well on the very, very right of the curve is that one special plane Flack Bait that accomplished 206 missions. It is expected to have bombers on the very right, but Flack Bait was special and lucky. Flying 206 missions is like winning the lottery. You can call it superstition, luck, random chance; but she did a great job of bring home her crews.
Bomber crews were told if they completed 25 missions, they could return to the US. I will make the strong assumption the crews thought it was a tall order and superstition became a part of life, but it also gave them a goal.
Many events or metrics follow a bell curve. Let's assume the average number of missions a bomber survived was 20. On the far left of the bell are planes that only lasted a few missions and the curve rises as it reaches the average of 20 missions. Then the curve goes down as the missions become greater. Well on the very, very right of the curve is that one special plane Flack Bait that accomplished 206 missions. It is expected to have bombers on the very right, but Flack Bait was special and lucky. Flying 206 missions is like winning the lottery. You can call it superstition, luck, random chance; but she did a great job of bring home her crews.
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